FOX-VA-Tmac+5

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448775212913381379

Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

Then if that's the case McAuliffe's campaign is succeeding and Youngkin is still being too Trumpy with his tactics.

But at any rate, you're right that this seems like one of the more reasonable polls of the race so far. And that includes the Biden approval number. The election top line is not far off from my prediction, and slightly reassuring at this point even though I still would like to see better.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Against my better judgment I tuned into CNN the other night, and they were discussing how Democrats should be concerned about the Virginia race and how much the race was "narrowing," while citing this poll as evidence. Yeah, the media clearly still believes that Virginia is some sort of major swing state.

Obviously Democrats shouldn't be complacent about this race, but it has hardly "narrowed." McAuliffe has consistently been leading Youngkin by the mid-single digits. If anything that shows that Republicans can only get so much support in Virginia these days, even when the political headwinds benefit them. I can't wait for this election to just be over already. And if we're lucky McAuliffe will outperform his polling and maybe the media can concern troll Republicans about why people don't want to vote for their reactionary asses anymore in some parts of the country.