FOX-VA-Tmac+5

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448775212913381379

Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

[Matty]

I have a question

I wasn’t really following elections in 2009

Wtf happened in VA?

In 2009 fall, Obama ratings weren’t bad. Bush was still toxic

Was there a scandal on the dem ticket?

[Matty]

A redux of 2017 with a 9% TMac win really shouldn't be ruled out. But it can still be inconclusive for 2022, it's just that polarization works for the blue team in this state like it does for the red team in Ohio.

True, but I think a 2017 redux would be demoralizing because

A) we have a (somewhat) unpopular dem president in office with middling approvals in VA
B) the gop nominee isn’t low quality at all and has managed to put together relatively decent favorability ratings