FOX-VA-Tmac+5

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is such a big [6 points] RV/LV gap normal for non-pres Elections?

[Person Man]

Is such a big [6 points] RV/LV gap normal for non-pres Elections?

One poll had a 10 point one.

[Alben Barkley]

Is such a big [6 points] RV/LV gap normal for non-pres Elections?

One poll had a 10 point one.

Pollsters are massively overcompensating for 2020 with these aggressive LV screens. It already caused them to fail catastrophically in CA, same thing will happen here most likely. They are completely misunderstanding the modern electorate and why they were off in 2020/2016. They were off in those years because a lot of low propensity, hard to reach voters who they wouldn’t normally consider “likely” voters showed up for Trump. But they’re off this year because those voters are not going to turn out in the same numbers without Trump (especially with him telling them to boycott voting!), and meanwhile the high propensity voters who will show up (namely college whites) are now more Deomcratic than ever, compared to the Obama years when they mostly voted Republican in off-years.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is such a big [6 points] RV/LV gap normal for non-pres Elections?

One poll had a 10 point one.

Pollsters are massively overcompensating for 2020 with these aggressive LV screens.
[snip]

You don't know that, do you? Is there any proof, that they have changed their LV screen? Perhaps, the reason is as simple as that R are saying, they're enthusiastic/going to vote, while D are saying, they aren't.

But the pollsters' performance is a very interesting question. We'll get an answer in 2 weeks.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Against my better judgment I tuned into CNN the other night, and they were discussing how Democrats should be concerned about the Virginia race and how much the race was "narrowing," while citing this poll as evidence. Yeah, the media clearly still believes that Virginia is some sort of major swing state.

Obviously Democrats shouldn't be complacent about this race, but it has hardly "narrowed." McAuliffe has consistently been leading Youngkin by the mid-single digits. If anything that shows that Republicans can only get so much support in Virginia these days, even when the political headwinds benefit them. I can't wait for this election to just be over already. And if we're lucky McAuliffe will outperform his polling and maybe the media can concern troll Republicans about why people don't want to vote for their reactionary asses anymore in some parts of the country.

[wbrocks67]

Against my better judgment I tuned into CNN the other night, and they were discussing how Democrats should be concerned about the Virginia race and how much the race was "narrowing," while citing this poll as evidence. Yeah, the media clearly still believes that Virginia is some sort of major swing state.

Obviously Democrats shouldn't be complacent about this race, but it has hardly "narrowed." McAuliffe has consistently been leading Youngkin by the mid-single digits. If anything that shows that Republicans can only get so much support in Virginia these days, even when the political headwinds benefit them. I can't wait for this election to just be over already. And if we're lucky McAuliffe will outperform his polling and maybe the media can concern troll Republicans about why people don't want to vote for their reactionary asses anymore in some parts of the country.

Right - the fact that this poll - that has a double digit margin for T-Mac among RV, is somehow evidence of "Narrowing" is once again - as we've talked about - just more proof that the media always plays into the GOP hands, and needs a "Dems in Disarray" narrative.

[TodayJunior]

McAuliffe wins by 10. That shouldn’t surprise anyone.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448775212913381379

Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?

Because Republicans in MA are normal people whose issue positions are fairly similar to Democrats (pro choice, pro gun control, pro gay marriage, believe in climate change, aren't racist, etc.).  Whereas Republican in VA are f***ing crazy and act and govern like deep southern conservative evangelical Republicans and that just doesn't fly with the VA electorate.   

Also, Youngkin is not running a fine campaign.