Both are basically Safe R but Mandel has the potential to be an redux of Akin so OH
Actually, maybe this. Generally OH is much redder than FL, BUT Rubio's popularity in FL is understated. He won by 7.7% in 2016 after promising not to; 2022 will be a redder year, he won't have promised to retire (though I doubt it hurt him much in 2016) and Southeast FL has trended rightward. I think FL SEN 2022 is borderline, if not outright, safe Republican (though I am NOT saying FL in 2024 will definitely be safe, likely or even lean Republican). In OH, I'd rate it likely Republican, since OH is a red state but a blunder could make Mandel go down. Of course Vance may be the nominee but he might make a blunder too. Also, I consider Ryan a strong Democratic candidate who might be able to win some (note that I am not saying all, but some) Obama/Trump voters in Northern Ohio and the Mahoning Valley.
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