More likely to flip Democratic: Ohio or Florida?
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  More likely to flip Democratic: Ohio or Florida?
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Poll
Question: Assume Ryan v. Mandel and Demings v. Rubio
#1
Ohio
 
#2
Florida
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: More likely to flip Democratic: Ohio or Florida?  (Read 1191 times)
GALeftist
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« on: October 13, 2021, 09:53:52 PM »

On the one hand we have a state which recently became safe R for anyone not named Sherrod Brown, but the likely Republican nominee is Josh Mandel. On the other hand we have a state which is closer, although still definitely Republican-leaning, with Marco Rubio as the likely nominee. What are your thoughts?
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2021, 11:45:30 PM »

Both are basically Safe R but Mandel has the potential to be an redux of Akin so OH
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 02:34:17 AM »

Both are basically Safe R but Mandel has the potential to be an redux of Akin so OH
People love declaring states safe based on little evidence. I swear all of you guys would have declared the Midwestern states safe D after 2012
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 02:46:10 AM »

OH, the same way Democrats are more likely to flip MO-SEN than IA-SEN in 2022.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2021, 03:13:33 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 03:16:35 AM by Mr. Kanye West »

Just for the Record it's a 304 map but upsets in MI, NH, OH and FL can happen it's called SPL voting Demings, Ryan can win while DeSantis and DeWine win give us 54 seats we don't need to Defeat them and we don't need MI, Partisan trends is less in a Midterm, but don't write off Crist is an attorney and so is DEMING'S and DeSantis all three are excellent debators

We can win MI in 2024 without Whitmer in 2024, Debbie Stabenow is undefeated and PA won't even be close in 2024 die to Bob Casey Jr Baldwin is vulnerable but we have Sinema in AZ as wave insurance, if we pass DC Statehood in 2023, she will fall in line and she won't be upset in a primary, Ruben Gallego already declined to run against Sinema, he said on MSNBC she is a fine Senator
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2021, 05:50:19 AM »

FL. Mandel might perform wore than Rubio but he has a higher floor of solidly Republican voters, and that floor makes him safe. Ryan has a <5% chance; Demings could do a little better.

Still, it’s worth remembering that Democrats did win a downballot office in Ohio in 2020 - the partisan race for an OH Supreme Court seat. Democrats in Ohio have not quite gone the way of the dodo, although they’re not going anywhere good in this midterm.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2021, 05:52:34 AM »

Florida, but it's absolutely not going to flip.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2021, 08:46:46 AM »

While neither are flipping in 2022, Florida will be closer, even if Mandel is a “weak candidate.” I maintain that Rubio will not win by double digits.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2021, 08:50:42 AM »

FL. Mandel might perform wore than Rubio but he has a higher floor of solidly Republican voters, and that floor makes him safe. Ryan has a <5% chance; Demings could do a little better.

Still, it’s worth remembering that Democrats did win a downballot office in Ohio in 2020 - the partisan race for an OH Supreme Court seat. Democrats in Ohio have not quite gone the way of the dodo, although they’re not going anywhere good in this midterm.

Note that until now party labels were not on the ballot for the Ohio court.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2021, 08:58:22 AM »

FL. Mandel might perform wore than Rubio but he has a higher floor of solidly Republican voters, and that floor makes him safe. Ryan has a <5% chance; Demings could do a little better.

Still, it’s worth remembering that Democrats did win a downballot office in Ohio in 2020 - the partisan race for an OH Supreme Court seat. Democrats in Ohio have not quite gone the way of the dodo, although they’re not going anywhere good in this midterm.

Note that until now party labels were not on the ballot for the Ohio court.

They still had Republican and Democratic primaries.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2021, 09:33:23 AM »

OH is somewhat more likely, though I don't expect either to flip blue. It would be an uphill battle even during a Trump midterm. Mandel just seems a weaker candidate and it's an open race.
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andjey
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2021, 11:48:19 AM »

Both are almost Safe R, but all depends on who Republicans will nominate in OH. In case of Mandel nomination I can see the race being a Lean R. So, Ohio
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2021, 03:48:58 PM »

Both are basically Safe R but Mandel has the potential to be an redux of Akin so OH

Actually, maybe this. Generally OH is much redder than FL, BUT Rubio's popularity in FL is understated. He won by 7.7% in 2016 after promising not to; 2022 will be a redder year, he won't have promised to retire (though I doubt it hurt him much in 2016) and Southeast FL has trended rightward. I think FL SEN 2022 is borderline, if not outright, safe Republican (though I am NOT saying FL in 2024 will definitely be safe, likely or even lean Republican). In OH, I'd rate it likely Republican, since OH is a red state but a blunder could make Mandel go down. Of course Vance may be the nominee but he might make a blunder too. Also, I consider Ryan a strong Democratic candidate who might be able to win some (note that I am not saying all, but  some) Obama/Trump voters in Northern Ohio and the Mahoning Valley.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2021, 04:08:01 PM »

Florida still, but Ohio polls will probably show a closer race.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2021, 05:29:02 PM »

Both are safe R, but Ohio is at least an open election and none of the leading Republican candidates are particularly great. That makes it maybe 1% more winnable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2021, 07:48:35 AM »

Neither we're not producing but 200K a mnth and that's not enough to produce a massive Blue wave and the same jobs coming back aren't White collar teaching jobs, which are online, but Nursing and Retail job

But, Security Armed Guards are excelling that's why you could get Armed Training online not in a Junior College that pays 20.00 an hr


WI, PA, MI, GA, NV and AZ will determine Senate control if there is a wave Ryan will win Demings was nowhere in Surfside

There hasn't been much polling in NC, OH and FL but Fink is down 55/37 that's funny
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Suburbia
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« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2021, 02:05:04 PM »

Ohio.

If Biden's approvals rebound by Oct 2022, both can flip.

Ryan and Demings are good candidates
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Coolface’s actual roommate
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2021, 02:06:46 PM »

0%=0%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2021, 02:09:42 PM »

Obviously OH, Demings has DeSANTIS on the ballot in FL
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2021, 06:08:32 PM »

Given the thermostatic pressure, both are pipe dreams this year.

But, in a neutral environment, it’s an interesting question because Ohio is far and away the better candidate matchup, but FL has a theoretically higher Dem baseline.
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MarkD
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« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2021, 07:22:37 AM »

Ohio. Rubio has incumbency advantages that Mandel does not. Mandel has baggage that Ryan does not.
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