At which point were reelection bids of 1-term presidents irreversible doomed since 1900?

[President Johnson]

At which point would you say was each one term president's bid to win reelection irreversible doomed?


I'd say:

- William Howard Taft, 1912: His reelection bid was irreversible doomed the moment progressive Republicans left the convention and nominated Theodore Roosevelt on a third party ticket. I still think Taft would have struggled against Wilson one-on-one, though he was never going to win a three-way race.

- Hebert Hoover, 1932: Obviously Black Thursday in October 1929 sealed his fate. One may argue the Bonus Army in summer 1932 was the final nail in his reelection coffin.

- Gerald Ford, 1976: "There's no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe". Conventional wisdom is the Nixon pardon on September 8, 1974, though I believe he still could have won, given how close the race actually was. Ford's debate gaffe certainly angered a lot of Polish Americans that were living in states that ended up very close.

- Jimmy Carter, 1980: It's difficult to name a specific date. The 1977-81 presidential term was very challenging at home and abroad and some factors were just beyond his control. I tend to believe any president serving during that time would have struggled in 1980. Maybe you can argue November 4, 1979 was some point of no return, when hostages were taken in Iran. However, Carter still had the (theoretical) chance to free hostages before the election and improve his standing. Reagan's closing statement ("are you better off than four years ago?") in the debate was the final straw, though I don't think that alone switched so many votes. Carter was going to lose even before he took the debate stage.

- George HW Bush, 1992: The first quarter of 1992. The economy was slowing down and Bush faced an unexpectedly strong challenge from Pat Buchanan. Conventional wisdom certainly is breaking his tax promise in 1990, but he still managed to get a robust approval rating in 1991 in the aftermath of the Gulf War. Just remember some Democrats like Mario Cuomo didn't enter the presidential race because they though Bush was unbeatable.

- Donald Trump, 2020: I actually never expected Trump to win reelection from 2017 onward because his term was just so disastrous and messy. However, a more realistic take in retrospect is certainly the first half of 2020, when he completely bungled the Covid pandemic.

Thoughts?

[Yu748Girl83]

I agree.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Taft : When Teddy announced his third party bid

Hoover : Letting the Banks fail in the Fall 1930/Winter 1931 as that turned a recession into the depression

Ford : he wasnt doomed but yah I agree the debate gaffe could have made the difference

Carter: Id say there are multiple instances but id say the 1979 Energy Crises cost him as even if the hostages were rescued , I think the economy would have doomed him

HW Bush : The minute Clinton got the nomination as Bush had no idea whatsoever how to run a campaign against someone where the traditional playbook wouldn’t work

Trump : He wasn’t doomed either but I’d say that first debate could have made the difference. Keep in mind other than the SC primary debate , Biden pretty much did terrible in every debate he did including that final debate where Trump clearly surged afterwards . So his behavior in the first debate could have cost him

[darklordoftech]

Hoover : Letting the Banks fail in the Fall 1930/Winter 1931 as that turned a recession into the depression

What did Hoover do or not do that let the banks fail?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hoover : Letting the Banks fail in the Fall 1930/Winter 1931 as that turned a recession into the depression

What did Hoover do or not do that let the banks fail?

He refused to bail them out and appointed a hard money guy to the Fed

[dw93]

Taft: the second it became a three man race, though I don't think Taft would have an easy time in a two man race either, it would likely be a coin toss.

Hoover: October 1929. Even if Hoover bailed out the banks, I can't see any recovery being strong enough to save him in 1932, unless a non FDR Democratic nominee really managed to s**t the bed, and even then said bed s**ter would be favored against Hoover.

Ford: While I do agree he could've won, any win would've been viewed as a Truman 1948esque upset victory and solely the result of a poor Carter campaign and divided opposition. Even without the pardon, the economy would've still been enough of a weight around Ford's neck to give the Democrats the edge, and Reagan's primary challenge was also damaging to Ford, so it this case there's really no specific point where it became doomed, as it was never favored to begin with.

Carter: The launch of Kennedy's primary challenge in 1979. As bad as the Hostage Crisis was, it did initially give Carter a rally around the flag effect that was strong enough to fend Kennedy off, and Carter, IIRC, was even leading Reagan in polling in early 1980. Without the Hostage Crisis, it's uncertain that Carter would've even been renominated, as it was Kennedy got some momentum in the later primary contest due to the crisis dragging on.

Bush: When Perot got out of the race in the summer of 1992 (before re entering again in the fall). Prior to Perot exiting the race, Bush was leading in some early 3-way polls, and when he wasn't, Perot was. It wasn't until Perot got exited the race, just before the Democratic Convention, that Clinton got a lead and secured it. Said lead was double digits until Perot got back in in the fall. Buchanan, who I'd argue hurt Bush more than Perot, running a primary challenge is also a good contender.

Trump: The summer of 2020, due to Trump dumping a can of gas on the fire that was race relations as well as COVID lingering on. It also became clear at that point that Trump could've done more in February (and even January IIRC) of 2020 to keep COVID from breaking out as badly as it did in the US and didn't. From the fall of 2019 until about early to mid June of 2020, I actually thought Trump was gonna win.