Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,302
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74
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« on: October 12, 2021, 09:45:22 PM » |
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Pollsters hilariously overcompensating for 2020 in LV models yet again, just like in CA. And just like there, this won't even end up being that close in the end.
I think the worst (and most embarrassing for the pollsters) part of all is they seem to be assuming that races WITHOUT Trump on the ballot are the races MOST likely to turn out uneducated rednecks disproportionately, and seem to have somehow not noticed that college-educated whites (i.e. the actual highest propensity voters, especially in off-years) have swung massively D in recent years (especially in a state like VA). They couldn't be more wrong, and they once again are going to f--k up and have egg on their faces because of it. Just this time ironically they probably would have more accurate results if they just went with their old methods rather than trying to overcompensate. How you could still possibly not be convinced that Trump is a very unique confounding effect on polls that does not translate to any other elections in any other year is beyond me. It's just self-evident fact at this point.
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