CBS-VA- Tmac +3
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Matty
boshembechle
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« on: October 12, 2021, 04:23:07 PM »

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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 05:48:22 PM »



The poll shows very little crossover from 2020 and TMac up 8 with a higher turnout model. After what happened in CA and what's been happening in suburbs you wonder if 2017 2.0 is a distinct possibility.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2021, 05:52:39 PM »

This has a Biden +2 LV sample, which makes me think that once again, like CA, pollsters are really screwing up their LV model.

It also shows Biden -4 among LVs which seems lower than where it should be. Given the ~8 pt swing right now, Biden should be at about +2 in VA give or take, more like Fox's 50/49 poll.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2021, 05:54:26 PM »

McAuliffe +2 is what will happen. The close loss will give the GOP even more astroturfed momentum for 2022.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2021, 05:56:17 PM »

This has a Biden +2 LV sample, which makes me think that once again, like CA, pollsters are really screwing up their LV model.

It also shows Biden -4 among LVs which seems lower than where it should be. Given the ~8 pt swing right now, Biden should be at about +2 in VA give or take, more like Fox's 50/49 poll.

The California result was a 6 point shift from Biden’s margin, so this is in line with that.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2021, 05:59:05 PM »

This has a Biden +2 LV sample, which makes me think that once again, like CA, pollsters are really screwing up their LV model.

It also shows Biden -4 among LVs which seems lower than where it should be. Given the ~8 pt swing right now, Biden should be at about +2 in VA give or take, more like Fox's 50/49 poll.

The California result was a 6 point shift from Biden’s margin, so this is in line with that.

Not an apples to apples comparison, bc you could also say there that Newsom exactly replicated his 2018 margin, so therefore McAuliffe would replicate his 2017 margin.

The CA result was a 5pt shift btw, 29 to 24.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2021, 06:00:35 PM »

This has a Biden +2 LV sample, which makes me think that once again, like CA, pollsters are really screwing up their LV model.

It also shows Biden -4 among LVs which seems lower than where it should be. Given the ~8 pt swing right now, Biden should be at about +2 in VA give or take, more like Fox's 50/49 poll.

The California result was a 6 point shift from Biden’s margin, so this is in line with that.

Wasn’t it what Newsom got in 2018? But yeah. If with the worst electorate, Biden would be at 48-49%, it makes since that we get a 2013-like result.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2021, 06:06:06 PM »

Hopefully big name Democrats finally getting involved can help McAuliffe get the enthusiasm he may or may not need to pull off a more impressive than expected win next month. Please, just give me some reason to not dread 2022 any more than I already am.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2021, 06:12:27 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 06:25:54 PM by Skill and Chance »

This has a Biden +2 LV sample, which makes me think that once again, like CA, pollsters are really screwing up their LV model.

It also shows Biden -4 among LVs which seems lower than where it should be. Given the ~8 pt swing right now, Biden should be at about +2 in VA give or take, more like Fox's 50/49 poll.

The California result was a 6 point shift from Biden’s margin, so this is in line with that.

Wasn’t it what Newsom got in 2018? But yeah. If with the worst electorate, Biden would be at 48-49%, it makes since that we get a 2013-like result.

Youngkin is considerably better at this than Elder, though.  I would expect more of a swing away from Biden in VA. 

BTW I really wish more polls would include the row offices and the HoD generic ballot.  If this is the result, it likely means an HoD flip and a Sears win for LG. 
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progressive85
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2021, 07:32:21 PM »

I'm saying it again but Youngkin is the next Governor.  He will be instantly unpopular, this is not a good time to be an incumbent winning a close election by a razor-thin margin in a state trending over time away from your party.  I expect Dems to regain the gov mansion in 2025 after Trump is elected POTUS again.... and 2025 will be a huge year for Dems in Virginia if that happens.  I'm already looking ahead 4 years.  2021 sucks.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2021, 08:38:07 PM »

Dems coalition is more apt to turn out than the 2009 version and it's not even close. TMac will get numbers out of NoVA, Henrico, SE VA that should make it impossible for Youngkin.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2021, 08:40:02 PM »

Dems coalition is more apt to turn out than the 2009 version and it's not even close. TMac will get numbers out of NoVA, Henrico, SE VA that should make it impossible for Youngkin.

Yea bush’s ussr-like margins with college whites in early 2000s saved him in 2006
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2021, 09:39:12 PM »

Rs getting a larger than expected loss here shouldn’t even panic them. It’s the flip side of polarization.

But something tells me the Ds with suburban strength could be better than expected in House while Rs might have a solid Senate night. Could even see Ds holding House, winning only PA in Senate while WI NC remain R. A 51-49 D Senate would easily flip in 2024.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2021, 09:45:22 PM »

Pollsters hilariously overcompensating for 2020 in LV models yet again, just like in CA. And just like there, this won't even end up being that close in the end.

I think the worst (and most embarrassing for the pollsters) part of all is they seem to be assuming that races WITHOUT Trump on the ballot are the races MOST likely to turn out uneducated rednecks disproportionately, and seem to have somehow not noticed that college-educated whites (i.e. the actual highest propensity voters, especially in off-years) have swung massively D in recent years (especially in a state like VA). They couldn't be more wrong, and they once again are going to f--k up and have egg on their faces because of it. Just this time ironically they probably would have more accurate results if they just went with their old methods rather than trying to overcompensate. How you could still possibly not be convinced that Trump is a very unique confounding effect on polls that does not translate to any other elections in any other year is beyond me. It's just self-evident fact at this point.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2021, 12:37:13 PM »

Rs getting a larger than expected loss here shouldn’t even panic them. It’s the flip side of polarization.

But something tells me the Ds with suburban strength could be better than expected in House while Rs might have a solid Senate night. Could even see Ds holding House, winning only PA in Senate while WI NC remain R. A 51-49 D Senate would easily flip in 2024.

Yes, and something tells me that you should really start lowering your expectations and tempering your perpetual optimism with a healthy dose of realism. 

I especially like how you think Republicans should feel good about a 51-49 D outcome in the Senate (or that said outcome would represent a "solid Senate night" or something close to a best-case scenario for them).
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