Last Republicans to carry Fairfax County

[jamestroll]

For reference:



Found this.

Likely wont happen this year. I mean, certainly wont happen this year. But it was interesting to see the last gubernatorial candidate for the Republican to win Fairfax County.

It is interesting that Deeds won many precincts around Mclean. Reston has been a strong Democratic area for a long time. Vaguely remember reading about it helping pushing Fairfax County to Kerry in 2004.

Also this is the last time, by supervisor district, a Republican won a countywide election in Fairfax. 2015. Clerk of Courts. Still in office until 2023 I believe.



Youngkin will not win Fairfax County obviously but if he crosses 40% he is winning statewide.

[MT Treasurer]

Even when McDonell won Fairfax County in 2009, he still received 60K fewer votes than McCain in 2008, who of course lost the county by 21 percentage points (as opposed to Deeds receiving 165K fewer votes than Obama). Democratic turnout must have absolutely collapsed in VA in 2009, but even with that in mind, I’ll never understand why Deeds lost that race as badly as he did. Losing Fairfax County was inexcusable even in a R wave environment.

[jamestroll]

Even when McDonell won Fairfax County in 2009, he still received 70K fewer votes than McCain in 2008 (as opposed to Deeds receiving 160K fewer votes than Obama). Democratic turnout must have absolutely collapsed in VA in 2009, but even with that in mind, I’ll never understand why Deeds lost that race as badly as he did. Losing Fairfax County was inexcusable even in a R wave environment.

Yes. Exactly.

The people saying Youngkin will get 45% in Fairfax or even carry it are wish casting and delusional. You sometimes see this on twitter.

But to some youngkin's supporters credit, Loudoun is a distant possibility. The GOP was able to carry three county offices in 2019 and by fairly solid margins. If Youngkin is really polling well for a Republican in Nova, Loudoun could flip. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Manassas could actually be the surprise Youngkin pick up if the polling with Hispanics is actually true.

[THG]

Even when McDonell won Fairfax County in 2009, he still received 70K fewer votes than McCain in 2008 (as opposed to Deeds receiving 160K fewer votes than Obama). Democratic turnout must have absolutely collapsed in VA in 2009, but even with that in mind, I’ll never understand why Deeds lost that race as badly as he did. Losing Fairfax County was inexcusable even in a R wave environment.

Yes. Exactly.

The people saying Youngkin will get 45% in Fairfax or even carry it are wish casting and delusional. You sometimes see this on twitter.

But to some youngkin's supporters credit, Loudoun is a distant possibility. The GOP was able to carry three county offices in 2019 and by fairly solid margins. If Youngkin is really polling well for a Republican in Nova, Loudoun could flip. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Manassas could actually be the surprise Youngkin pick up if the polling with Hispanics is actually true.

Youngkin will be extremely lucky to crack 35% in Fairfax, let alone 40 or 45%.

I also believe that Prince William may very well vote to the right of Loudon if the trends with Hispanics moving right and White College voters not budging much (as evidenced by the CA recall) are also right in this election.

However, Youngkin is no Elder, so upscale suburbanites in NOVA may be less hostile to him than they were in California to “Yes” on recall, however.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fact: Youngkin will not get 40% in Fairfax county just as sure as Arlington is not in Fairfax county. 

It's not rocket science.  When the GOP was the party of the UMC they did significantly better in places like Fairfax County, Fairfield County, Orange County.  Now that they are the party of less educated rural populists, this is no longer their terrain.  The GOP is country, not country club anymore. 

[Spectator]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

[Mexican Wolf]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

Was it Ed Gillespie in the 2014 Senate race?

[Roll Roons]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

Was it Ed Gillespie in the 2014 Senate race?

No, Gillespie lost it. They actually still have a Republican County Clerk, which is probably the person Spectator is referring to.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

Was it Ed Gillespie in the 2014 Senate race?

He won Loudon but not Fairfax

[Non Swing Voter]

Loudoun is a very different county than it was 5 years ago.

[Spectator]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

Was it Ed Gillespie in the 2014 Senate race?

No, Gillespie lost it. They actually still have a Republican County Clerk, which is probably the person Spectator is referring to.

Yes, it was. I actually didn’t know that person was still in office. I remember the Republican winning in 2015 and I was really shocked at the time. I assumed the demographics would’ve caught up with them by now.

[Roll Roons]

Fun fact: Bob McDonnell was not the most recent Republican to win Fairfax County.

Was it Ed Gillespie in the 2014 Senate race?

No, Gillespie lost it. They actually still have a Republican County Clerk, which is probably the person Spectator is referring to.

Yes, it was. I actually didn’t know that person was still in office. I remember the Republican winning in 2015 and I was really shocked at the time. I assumed the demographics would’ve caught up with them by now.

There are a lot of ancestral Dem counties in Appalachia and the South that went heavily for Trump but still vote for county-level Democrats. This can cut both ways.

[Chips]

Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William are all basically unwinnable for Youngkin but the margins in which McAuliffe wins these counties could mean a lot. Does McAuliffe win Loudoun by 15 or 25? Does he win Fairfax by 30 or 40?

These are the kinds of questions to ask.

[Chips]

Also, keep in mind that NOVA will not be the only place where VA could be decided.

Chesterfield County, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are all big traditionally Republican vote getters that Youngkin will have to win in order to win statewide.

Also, watch for the small city of Radford. Radford might not been significant but I've mentioned before how Radford is a good predictor of statewide margins. If Radford is red next month, that could be an indication of Youngkin statewide success.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Also, keep in mind that NOVA will not be the only place where VA could be decided.

Chesterfield County, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are all big traditionally Republican vote getters that Youngkin will have to win in order to win statewide.

Also, watch for the small city of Radford. Radford might not been significant but I've mentioned before how Radford is a good predictor of statewide margins. If Radford is red next month, that could be an indication of Youngkin statewide success.

The true virginia bellweather is Radford. Chesterfield county has flipped to Biden in 2020 because of suburban folks being tired of Trump.

[Senator Spark]

Bob McDonnell