VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4

[Alben Barkley]

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.

No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.

I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

So you genuinely believe Youngkin is favoured?

Yes. I agree with the Saagar Enjeti rule to always add at least 6% to the Republican.

LOL if you did this in 2018 you would have gotten just about every race wrong. (As indeed Trafalgar did applying their own, similar "unskewing" techniques.) Even in 2020, the polling error was not 6 points off. Biden led in polls of PA by an average of about 4, for instance, and ended up winning it by 1. The error was literally half of this ridiculous "rule" that only has ever come close to being true when Trump is on the ballot.