VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4

[wbrocks67]

McAullife 49
Youngkin 45

Herring 49
Miyares 43

Ayala 48
Sears 44

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-10-08.html

[wbrocks67]

From their last poll in August, apparently Independents went from McAuliffe +5 to Youngkin +9. Despite this, Youngkin still losing by 4 here.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... their August release was McAuliffe's best poll of the year.

[wbrocks67]

Hmmm... their August release was McAuliffe's best poll of the year.

It was also likely too college educated, as was noted. This one seems more Republican than the last one too.

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.

No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1446463901823078400

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1446463901823078400

It could happen if Democrats don’t vote, I guess.

[MT Treasurer]

Feel free to ignore anyone who starts their analysis with "I’m not unskewing, just noticing" and "I don’t want to unskew, but."

Credibility issues aside, McAuliffe +4 is a very plausible result and about where I expect the race to end up when all is said and done. Even with a fairly well-run campaign Youngkin is going to hit a ceiling sooner or later and I think that ceiling is only slightly above the 2016 result. It’s not downright impossible for him to win, but those last 3% are going to be even tougher for him than for Hubbell in IA-GOV 2018.

[HalseyKelsea]

This is gonna be tight:

50% McAuliffe
49% Trumpkin
  1% Princess

or ...

50% Trumpkin
49% McAuliffe
  1% Princess

Biden could be a drag on McAuliffe of some sorts.

Even Murphy in NJ won't win by huge margins.

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

I think a narrow loss probably means a 30-35 seat loss.  Republicans would have to start winning seats that Biden won by nearly 15 points to get above that.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

I think a narrow loss probably means a 30-35 seat loss.  Republicans would have to start winning seats that Biden won by nearly 15 points to get above that.

Even to get to 30-35 seats the GOP would have to flip fairly deep blue suburban districts like VA-10.  That's simply not going to happen.  The flip side of 80% of the country being in gerrymandered/safe districts is that fluctuation on that scale is very hard.  When Dems did it in 2018 there was a ton of low hanging fruit.  There aren't that many Dem districts that Biden lost in 2020.  And there are quite a few GOP districts that Biden won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

It's not over and VBM is gonna favor D's and sane day voting favors Rs remember 2014/ Warner had a 15 pt lead in another Midterm and he won by the same margin as T Macvis up now, against Ed Gillespie 4 pts

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

And it probably will in 2021 as well.  See CA recall results for more.

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

It's not over and VBM is gonna favor D's and sane day voting favors Rs remember 2014/ Warner had a 15 pt lead in another Midterm and he won by the same margin as T Macvis up now, against Ed Gillespie 4 pts

lol, I really don't need to tell you why 2014 and 2021 are different now, do I? For one Gillespie won Loudoun, Youngkin doesn't have a prayer of winning it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, it's better than that McAuliffe+1 poll from Emerson, I suppose.

I am still holding out hope that polls are just plain wrong again and the election ends p not very suspenseful with McAuliffe winning at least close to how Northam did. Northam was polling pretty similarly to how McAuliffe is now, after all, and sometimes didn't even lead as consistently in polls. But can we rely on that polling error or similar turnout this year?

I'm not worried about Youngkin winning at all, but I really want a promising margin out of this to ease some of my dread for 2022 and deter a "Dems in disarray" narrative. But if McAuliffe does win by the somewhat meek four points he seems to get the most in polls, I guess he's proven to be a poor campaigner in spite of being a decent governor in his first term.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I definitely see this happening. Right now I have McAuliffe winning by 4.4%. This is a rather conservative prediction compared to my prediction in 2017.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

S019 thinks DeSantis is gonna lose and he's telling me that Youngkin can't win it's, McAuliffe is Fav but it's not over til Fat lady sings and all the votes are counted


DeSantis is gonna win by 10 prs

Crist winning is laughable with Biden at 42% Natl Approvals in FL go ahead and donate to Crist and Val they're gonna lose with Biden at 42%, Biden didn't win FL at 51% App rivals in 2020, it's a 304 map

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

Yes, and in 2018 and 2020 it didn’t (generally accurate/slightly underestimated Republicans). It’s foolish to act like polling is guaranteed to underestimate Democrats when there’s no evidence of such a consistent pattern (one election is not a pattern).

[Schiff for Senate]

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.

No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

My prediction is McAuliffe +2. There is probably about a 25% chance Youngkin wins.

No. There is a 100% chance Youngkin wins.

Both of you are trolling, though I think SnowLabrador's is unintentional, whereas Leroy McPherson fan's is purposeful and he realizes he's trolling.

I know my current prediction will raise an eyebrow or two, but it's Virginia, which broke for Biden by much more than 4 points...I'm currently going with McAuliffe+7.2, though this may change as the election draws nearer.

I’m not trolling. Just exaggerating a bit.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

Agree with this, though your new (old, in some ways, but I wasn't around the forum then) username and avatar feel weird.