VA-GOV (Wason): McAuliffe +4

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

It's not over and VBM is gonna favor D's and sane day voting favors Rs remember 2014/ Warner had a 15 pt lead in another Midterm and he won by the same margin as T Macvis up now, against Ed Gillespie 4 pts

lol, I really don't need to tell you why 2014 and 2021 are different now, do I? For one Gillespie won Loudoun, Youngkin doesn't have a prayer of winning it.

[S019]

Yeah this one is over, I changed my username recently, but the message remains the same, Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters for Republicans, including one who has veered as far to the right as Glenn Youngkin are not going to win a race like this, which has been greatly nationalized, to the benefit of T-Mac, of course. My prior is Democrats need to win by at least 5 or 6 to feel good about themselves, a narrow win is a sign of a 2014 style wave building, a loss would be a sign of a disastrous wave building where the Democrats could lose 40-45 seats come 2022.

.

It's not over it's well within margin of error

Yes and? In 2017, the polling error favored VA Democrats.

Yes, and in 2018 and 2020 it didn’t (generally accurate/slightly underestimated Republicans). It’s foolish to act like polling is guaranteed to underestimate Democrats when there’s no evidence of such a consistent pattern (one election is not a pattern).

Pretty sure that 2020 polling was more or less spot on in Virginia (slightly overestimated Ds), while it slightly underestimated Ds in 2018. This is not WI or MI, where there's a consistent pattern of massive D polling biases, surely not to the extent that we'd need for a Youngkin win.