Matt Cartwright (PA-08) may be retiring

[BoiseBoy]

He says it depends on redistricting.

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2021/10/07/pelosis-majority-crumbles-democrat-matt-cartwright-hints-retirement-redistricting/

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

[progressive85]

I guess that area of PA has nothing in common with the modern Democratic Party... it's very close to WV. 

Take the bluish parts of the Poconos and just join them with the bluish parts of the Lehigh Valley.

The rest of the surrounding area is going red.

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Yes, but it's not a good sign for Democrats regardless. He wouldn't be retiring if he expected the national environment to be good for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, this sounds like a normal response - wait to see what happens with redistricting.

Also, why are we linking Breitbart?

[Spectator]

He’d be an interesting Senate candidate. Better than the clown Fetterman and probably stronger with the base and the ancestral Dems than Lamb would be.

[sting in the rafters]

As stated in the article it depends on how his district is redrawn. Cartwright's prolly still decently favored if his new district has Scranton metro+Stroudsburg as well as the resort counties which have actually seen population growth over the past few decades. On the other hand, however much of Coal Country he doesn't have to eat in exurban Luzerne/the Jim Thorpe area is gonna be Wild's problem.

Is a 9D/8R map possible for PA in '22? On paper, but NEPA and Lehigh Valley are going to be top R targets.

[Meatball Ron]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

[Devils30]

As stated in the article it depends on how his district is redrawn. Cartwright's prolly still decently favored if his new district has Scranton metro+Stroudsburg as well as the resort counties which have actually seen population growth over the past few decades. On the other hand, however much of Coal Country he doesn't have to eat in exurban Luzerne/the Jim Thorpe area is gonna be Wild's problem.

Is a 9D/8R map possible for PA in '22? On paper, but NEPA and Lehigh Valley are going to be top R targets.

It might actually help the Dems in a court drawn map if we concede PA-8 and ask for the court to draw a Scranton to Allentown PA-7 that shores up Wild and keeps PA-17 blue by taking in part of Pittsburgh. Maybe PA-4 can take in parts of Lehigh.

[thebeloitmoderate]

If PA-08 wants to go from extremely narrow Trump win in 2020 to more wider Trump win then make the district more rural and leave Scranton (Joe Biden's birthplace) to a seperate district

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

No, actually. He has working class appeal in PA08, which is how he survived in 2020. I'd say the district is likely to safe Republican (and probably closer to the latter) should Cartwright retire and a tossup with him. On the other hand it all depends on how the district is reconfigured; it Cartwright is in new territory, he might not have as much appeal (but then I imagine he'd run in the district that includes most of his former territory) Basically what recoveringdemocrat said:

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I mean, this sounds like a normal response - wait to see what happens with redistricting.

Also, why are we linking Breitbart?

Yeah, this doesn't really mean anything until we actually see what his new district looks like. Most representatives in potentially worsening boundaries will say this exact same thing. It's not quite as panic inducing as Kind's retirement...for now.

[progressive85]

As stated in the article it depends on how his district is redrawn. Cartwright's prolly still decently favored if his new district has Scranton metro+Stroudsburg as well as the resort counties which have actually seen population growth over the past few decades. On the other hand, however much of Coal Country he doesn't have to eat in exurban Luzerne/the Jim Thorpe area is gonna be Wild's problem.

Is a 9D/8R map possible for PA in '22? On paper, but NEPA and Lehigh Valley are going to be top R targets.

I love that somebody knows what Stroudsburg is... to me it's home, but many people don't know it... actually it has historical significance as Abraham Lincoln's representative on the battlefields was a man from Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania.  It's a very small town, but like I said, it's home... and I bet we've all got hometowns that aren't famous to the rest of the world but to us, they certainly are very famous

[S019]

He's not winning anyways, so I don't care, it might be better for him to retire so DCCC doesn't waste money here.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

Yes, and I don’t think his recent overperformances are impressive enough to warrant a different rating with him running again? "Lean" to me implies something like "Race is competitive but one party has an advantage" whereas "Likely" is more like "Race is currently not competitive but has the potential to become competitive," and even with Cartwright running again, PA-8 is a lot closer to the second category than the first in my view. Beating an opponent Republicans had basically written off as dead by 3.6%-points in a Trump +4 district is hardly some impressive feat in an area where Democrats have historically been very strong in down-ballot races. Cartwright is basically the prime example of an overhyped "strong incumbent" who is likely to see their (already overstated) crossover appeal erode. He’s also a lot less skilled than someone like Jared Golden in navigating his district's partisan lean and has little experience running competitive general elections, in part because Republicans gave him a pass in previous years and the district's rightward shift hadn’t yet caught up with him.

Yes, the rating might change depending on how the lines are drawn, but this is one of those CDs unlikely to change to the Democrats' benefit in redistricting given that they’re likely more interested in maximizing their advantage elsewhere. It’s a district where Biden got a slight dead cat bounce in 2020 but where he’s almost certainly underwater by double-digits in terms of approval by now. Republicans aren’t losing PA-08 in an environment like this, and if they do, they’re not only losing statewide in PA/losing additional seats in the Senate but also don’t have a prayer of winning the House. This is by far one of their easiest pick-up opportunities they should flip even in a neutral year.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

He better not run for Senate

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

Yes, and I don’t think his recent overperformances are impressive enough to warrant a different rating with him running again? "Lean" to me implies something like "Race is competitive but one party has an advantage" whereas "Likely" is more like "Race is currently not competitive but has the potential to become competitive," and even with Cartwright running again, PA-8 is a lot closer to the second category than the first in my view. Beating an opponent Republicans had basically written off as dead by 3.6%-points in a Trump +4 district is hardly some impressive feat in an area where Democrats have historically been very strong in down-ballot races. Cartwright is basically the prime example of an overhyped "strong incumbent" who is likely to see their (already overstated) crossover appeal erode. He’s also a lot less skilled than someone like Jared Golden in navigating his district's partisan lean and has little experience running competitive general elections, in part because Republicans gave him a pass in previous years and the district's rightward shift hadn’t yet caught up with him.

Yes, the rating might change depending on how the lines are drawn, but this is one of those CDs unlikely to change to the Democrats' benefit in redistricting given that they’re likely more interested in maximizing their advantage elsewhere. It’s a district where Biden got a slight dead cat bounce in 2020 but where he’s almost certainly underwater by double-digits in terms of approval by now. Republicans aren’t losing PA-08 in an environment like this, and if they do, they’re not only losing statewide in PA/losing additional seats in the Senate but also don’t have a prayer of winning the House. This is by far one of their easiest pick-up opportunities they should flip even in a neutral year.

Then it should be safe Republican without Cartwright, not likely Republican.

[Mr.Phips]

The problem Dems have here is that eliminating a Republican district almost certainly makes this seat pick up more Republican territory.