Do you agree with this very early battleground map

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tossup - Tipping Point State

Tilt - Tossup states that either candidate can win while getting less than 300 EV but if you had to choose would favor one party over the other

Lean - States that are winnable for the other party but would take a favorable environment to really win it

Likely - States that require an 2008 style win for the other party for it to be winnable by that party

Safe - States that wouldn’t flip even in an 2008 style win

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

[SN2903]

Tossup - Tipping Point State

Tilt - Tossup states that either candidate can win while getting less than 300 EV but if you had to choose would favor one party over the other

Lean - States that are winnable for the other party but would take a favorable environment to really win it

Likely - States that require an 2008 style win for the other party for it to be winnable by that party

Safe - States that wouldn’t flip even in an 2008 style win

I would put MI, GA, PA as tilt R and NV as a tossup.

[TodayJunior]

Tossup - Tipping Point State

Tilt - Tossup states that either candidate can win while getting less than 300 EV but if you had to choose would favor one party over the other

Lean - States that are winnable for the other party but would take a favorable environment to really win it

Likely - States that require an 2008 style win for the other party for it to be winnable by that party

Safe - States that wouldn’t flip even in an 2008 style win

Shifting in Dems’ favor:
1. Ohio/Iowa > likely R
2. Texas/Florida > lean R
3. North Carolina > tilt R

Shifting in Republicans’ favor:
1. Alaska > safe R
2. New Hampshire > tilt D


I agree Pennsylvania will be THE battleground.

[Xing]

I'd move GA/NV to Lean D, AZ/WI to Pure Toss-Up, NC to Tilt R, and FL/TX to Lean R. Overall, not a bad map, though I think AZ will vote left of PA in the end.

[TodayJunior]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

[Vice President Christian Man]

It looks great so far but I'd flip Arizona to tilt Dem (or lean if Trump ran), especially since Sinema is up for re-election and she'll win the moderate McCain Democrat vote, helping the other Dems down ballot.

[TodayJunior]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

Trump will improve massively with college educated whites who see the Dems for the failures that they are. Atlanta already had it’s “big shift” in the last two elections and it will swing rightward in 2024. And rurals will be maxed out like never before with Trump improving with blacks. And are we forgetting that Biden just barely won here and the libertarian got more votes than his victory margin?

[TodayJunior]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

Trump will improve massively with college educated whites who see the Dems for the failures that they are. Atlanta already had it’s “big shift” in the last two elections and it will swing rightward in 2024. And rurals will be maxed out like never before with Trump improving with blacks. And are we forgetting that Biden just barely won here and the libertarian got more votes than his victory margin?

That’s gonna be a VERY TALL ORDER. Let’s see what happens in 2022, but for the most part, the following look like snapshots in time: For example, Henry and Gwinnett once Republican strongholds went from -3 and -6 to -20 and -18 in one cycle. Cobb is another that went from -2 to -15. They’re all growing and moving left dramatically.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

Trump will improve massively with college educated whites who see the Dems for the failures that they are. Atlanta already had it’s “big shift” in the last two elections and it will swing rightward in 2024. And rurals will be maxed out like never before with Trump improving with blacks. And are we forgetting that Biden just barely won here and the libertarian got more votes than his victory margin?

That’s gonna be a VERY TALL ORDER. Let’s see what happens in 2022, but for the most part, the following look like snapshots in time: For example, Henry and Gwinnett once Republican strongholds went from -3 and -6 to -20 and -18 in one cycle. Cobb is another that went from -2 to -15. They’re all growing and moving left dramatically.

But now they’ve been maxed out for Dems in 2020. In 2024 they will ALL swing Right.

[TodayJunior]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

Trump will improve massively with college educated whites who see the Dems for the failures that they are. Atlanta already had it’s “big shift” in the last two elections and it will swing rightward in 2024. And rurals will be maxed out like never before with Trump improving with blacks. And are we forgetting that Biden just barely won here and the libertarian got more votes than his victory margin?

That’s gonna be a VERY TALL ORDER. Let’s see what happens in 2022, but for the most part, the following look like snapshots in time: For example, Henry and Gwinnett once Republican strongholds went from -3 and -6 to -20 and -18 in one cycle. Cobb is another that went from -2 to -15. They’re all growing and moving left dramatically.

But now they’ve been maxed out for Dems in 2020. In 2024 they will ALL swing Right.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but that video’s title, “the only way to save Georgia”, indicates to me a lack of confidence or a concession you can’t win any other way, which would contradict your point about them all swinging right.

Atlanta’s cool though. I got lost a great deal driving around during my college years. So many peachtree streets. 

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

You sure about that!? How/where will Republicans make up the deficit given ATL and its  suburbs are flying leftwards? Not saying you’re wrong, but I don’t see how the math breaks down to favor the GOP whatsoever.

Max out with rurals and improve with college educated whites. Fayette county is gonna swing massively Rightward.
And if all else fails,

How does this happen when the party is moving more Trumpian? Interesting about abolishing WTA. They tried that in Colorado I think back on 2004 and it failed. Not sure it would pass in GA either, but I guess if they rammed it through before they lose all statewide offices, what’s to keep a uniformly Democrat Georgia from repealing it?

Trump will improve massively with college educated whites who see the Dems for the failures that they are. Atlanta already had it’s “big shift” in the last two elections and it will swing rightward in 2024. And rurals will be maxed out like never before with Trump improving with blacks. And are we forgetting that Biden just barely won here and the libertarian got more votes than his victory margin?

That’s gonna be a VERY TALL ORDER. Let’s see what happens in 2022, but for the most part, the following look like snapshots in time: For example, Henry and Gwinnett once Republican strongholds went from -3 and -6 to -20 and -18 in one cycle. Cobb is another that went from -2 to -15. They’re all growing and moving left dramatically.

But now they’ve been maxed out for Dems in 2020. In 2024 they will ALL swing Right.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but that video’s title, “the only way to save Georgia”, indicates to me a lack of confidence or a concession you can’t win any other way, which would contradict your point about them all swinging right.

Atlanta’s cool though. I got lost a great deal driving around during my college years. So many peachtree streets.  

I think Red Eagle is too pessimistic about Georgia. We still can defeat Warnock, Ossoff, and win  the state for the presidency for the next decade.

But I do agree that the CD method should be used as a backup plan if things don’t pan out.

[GregTheGreat657]

Mostly. IMO you are overestimating R's in AZ and FL, and overestimating D's in AK

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

Just like how it was “premature” to say Indiana would go Republican in 2012.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

Just like how it was “premature” to say Indiana would go Republican in 2012.

It wasn't premature to say Indiana was likely to go Republican, sure, but it would have been premature to say it was guaranteed to go Republican, yes.

Words mean things, you know.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

Just like how it was “premature” to say Indiana would go Republican in 2012.

It wasn't premature to say Indiana was likely to go Republican, sure, but it would have been premature to say it was guaranteed to go Republican, yes.

Words mean things, you know.

Still. It would not have been premature from November 5, 2008. EVERY person could correctly predict it would definitely flip back.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

Just like how it was “premature” to say Indiana would go Republican in 2012.

It wasn't premature to say Indiana was likely to go Republican, sure, but it would have been premature to say it was guaranteed to go Republican, yes.

Words mean things, you know.

Still. It would not have been premature from November 5, 2008. EVERY person could correctly predict it would definitely flip back.

I see this discussion is not worth continuing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup - Tipping Point State

Tilt - Tossup states that either candidate can win while getting less than 300 EV but if you had to choose would favor one party over the other

Lean - States that are winnable for the other party but would take a favorable environment to really win it

Likely - States that require an 2008 style win for the other party for it to be winnable by that party

Safe - States that wouldn’t flip even in an 2008 style win

Lol WI isn't a Lean R state, Cook has WI as Tossup for Senate and Tammy Baldwin is favored in 2024/ she won by a Landslide in 2018.




OH, NC and FL can flip the Senate races in FL and OH are statistically tied, nevertheless it's a 304 map and COVID 19 will be over by 2024/ it's already getting over now

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mostly. IMO you are overestimating R's in AZ and FL, and overestimating D's in AK

Ehh Trump won Alaska by 10 points which given its size could he potentially competitive in a 2008 style win for the Dems . The republicans would still be favored there but it would be similar I’d say to Montana 2008 which is why I have it as likely.


As for Arizona , I think it still will vote to the right of tipping point given trends with Hispanic voters and Florida while republicans don’t put up big margins , democrats do seem to need a lot to go right to win that state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Georgia will go R. Guaranteed. Michigan is tilt R too

Calling a state as "guaranteed" to go the opposite of the way it went in the last presidential election, when there are still *more than three years* until the next election is just shockingly silly. It's one thing to make that sort of call in late 2023, when we have a better sense of what the 2024 political landscape will be, but come on now, that is just absurdly premature.

Just like how it was “premature” to say Indiana would go Republican in 2012.

Indiana barely flipped to Obama in a near landslide win for the Democrats nationally and the perfect storm happening in that state for them to flip it .

GA is much more comparable to what VA would have been in 2008 without the crash than IN(though I think McCain narrowly wins VA)

[patzer]

Utah should be likely, not safe. I doubt it will flip but Utah is volatile enough that it isn’t out of the question.

[Sir Mohamed]

WI and AZ are battlegrounds, not Tilt or Lean R. There's no evidence for that. Even 2022 results don't mean either winning party can assume it's in the bag.

I would also rate GA as tossup unless Dems sweep there in 2022.