OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Adam Griffin]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

If she loses by even 10 points, she's almost certainly winning CD-5 (Edmondson lost it by just 0.2 in 2018).

From there, it's a matter of how close (or not) the race is: as an example, if she loses by 5-7 points, then she is probably pulling statistically-even in CD-1 (Tulsa; Stitt +7.7) & CD-4 (South-Central OK; Stitt +9.2).

Unless she just really racks up the score (relatively) in Little Dixie, there's no way I can see her winning where she wouldn't carry 3 out of 5 CDs. Even if she loses by low single-digits (in contrast with almost all contests in heavily-R states where Ds win, yet only score a paltry minority of CDs), there's a distinct possibility she still carries 3/5!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

A bit off topic but how do you think Oklahoma county goes in the senate race? Will Mullin and Lankford carry it or will trends end the county sweep?

I think Kendra Horn carries it but Madison doesn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are gonna be upsets maybe not NC and FL but OH, UT and IA, WI and GA and we still have SD and OK I don't believe that Thune is super safe if we are only 4 down in SD GOV GA was an upset in 2020 and Collins upset us in ME

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Could you imagine IceSpear now? Lol

[Skill and Chance]

Will Hofmeister start a conspiracy theory that Biden/the Dem candidate actually won Oklahoma in 2024?  LOL

[clever but short]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

A bit off topic but how do you think Oklahoma county goes in the senate race? Will Mullin and Lankford carry it or will trends end the county sweep?

I think Kendra Horn carries it but Madison doesn't.

Yes I think it's likely that Madison is the best performing Dem who does not win any county, though I wouldn't be super surprised if she managed to win Oklahoma County. Kendra on the other hand I think will likely win the first county for a Dem Senate candidate since 2008 (iirc).

[ProgressiveModerate]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

Thank you for this analysis. Ngl my understanding of OK politics is quite poor given the state usually doesn;t get much election coverage. Do you think Hoftmeiser will win any CDs? The GOP shored up OK-05 to be like Trump + 18 so it's not an easy question to answer.

I wonder why Expansion passed in pontonoc County, a county that gave Trump over 70% of the vote. I doubt Hoftmeiser wins it but is there some weird dynamic there?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Watched the debate and Stitt was annihilated. I think Hoftmeiser did a good job as coming across as “safe” and just small subtle things like choosing to wear a red outfit as a Dem is telling. Also she roasted Stitt like several times but not in the “woke” way.

Stitt seemed quite submissive throughout the debate and actually reminded me of Kamala a bit the way he laughs every time he clearly doesn’t want to answer a question.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/dlknowles/status/1582875985514356736

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/dlknowles/status/1582875985514356736

I think Republicans have been very effective at painting Dem cities specifically as less safe even though in reality there’s not a strong correlation.

I hate to be *that* person but some of it has to do with racism.

And one underrated factor too is the abundance of CCTV in cities. You can actually rewatch a recording of the crime, whereas if someone was brutally stabbed to death or eaten by a cow in a field in rural Oklahoma there would be no CCTV and hence that killing is less likely to become sensationalized. Extreme example but you get the point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is this debate performance bad enough to get into "could cost Stitt the election" territory?

[Ferguson97]

I hate to be *that* person but some of it has to do with racism.

Some? Most of it is racism.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ChrisKPolansky/status/1582876932265607169

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.

I'm totally stereotyping here in the worst possible way, but I kinda pat myself on the back for seeing Hofmeister for the first time and just having the immediate thought of "I bet she wasn't always a Democrat".  

I think it's also because my brain needed to latch onto some explanation for the polls. 

[wbrocks67]

Thank god for Hofmeister to pull the facts out in regards to crime. It's a sin that more Democrats across the country, who are facing similar attacks, never bring up this stuff.

[clever but short]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

Thank you for this analysis. Ngl my understanding of OK politics is quite poor given the state usually doesn;t get much election coverage. Do you think Hoftmeiser will win any CDs? The GOP shored up OK-05 to be like Trump + 18 so it's not an easy question to answer.

I wonder why Expansion passed in pontonoc County, a county that gave Trump over 70% of the vote. I doubt Hoftmeiser wins it but is there some weird dynamic there?

Regarding CDs: this

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

If she loses by even 10 points, she's almost certainly winning CD-5 (Edmondson lost it by just 0.2 in 2018).

From there, it's a matter of how close (or not) the race is: as an example, if she loses by 5-7 points, then she is probably pulling statistically-even in CD-1 (Tulsa; Stitt +7.7) & CD-4 (South-Central OK; Stitt +9.2).

Unless she just really racks up the score (relatively) in Little Dixie, there's no way I can see her winning where she wouldn't carry 3 out of 5 CDs. Even if she loses by low single-digits (in contrast with almost all contests in heavily-R states where Ds win, yet only score a paltry minority of CDs), there's a distinct possibility she still carries 3/5!

Regarding Pontotoc: I'm honestly not sure why it's had such quirky results recently. There are a couple reasons it could be a tad less red, namely Chickasaw Nation HQ + East Central University. But it seems to be unusually swingy.

[Hope For A New Era]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.

I'm totally stereotyping here in the worst possible way, but I kinda pat myself on the back for seeing Hofmeister for the first time and just having the immediate thought of "I bet she wasn't always a Democrat".  

I think it's also because my brain needed to latch onto some explanation for the polls. 

Political parties definitely have a look. The best example is Jeanine Áñez, who is the most Republican-looking non-American I've ever seen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.

I'm totally stereotyping here in the worst possible way, but I kinda pat myself on the back for seeing Hofmeister for the first time and just having the immediate thought of "I bet she wasn't always a Democrat".  

I think it's also because my brain needed to latch onto some explanation for the polls.  

Political parties definitely have a look. The best example is Jeanine Áñez, who is the most Republican-looking non-American I've ever seen.

When it comes to political parties, you can 99% of the time tell if a man is a D or R by what colour tie they’re wearing and if they’re old white.

With female politicians it can be a bit trickier. I tend to see female Republican politicians either wear more pronounced makeup/highlights/earrings or literally nothing, whereas female democrats tend to be more modest on those sorts of things but rarely go all natural.

Also most with some sort of “alternative” style lean Dem.

[One Term Floridian]

What are the odds: if Hofmeister wins, she switches back to GOP like Jim Justice in 2017?

Her excuse would probably be some decision made by the Biden Administration on energy policy/renewables...

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds: if Hofmeister wins, she switches back to GOP like Jim Justice in 2017?

Her excuse would probably be some decision made by the Biden Administration on energy policy/renewables...

I could def see it, but I don't think it would be right away, and Hoftmeiser actually seems to fit that Demographic that actually is becoming more favorable to Democrats so even if she does switch back, she'll prolly stay relatively moderate unlike Justice who is now normie GOP governor.

A big part of the question is does she plan on seeking re-election

[doopy pants]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1587154555200065537
https://twitter.com/officialOKGOP/status/1587187325263613952

What are the odds: if Hofmeister wins, she switches back to GOP like Jim Justice in 2017?

Her excuse would probably be some decision made by the Biden Administration on energy policy/renewables...

I could def see it, but I don't think it would be right away, and Hoftmeiser actually seems to fit that Demographic that actually is becoming more favorable to Democrats so even if she does switch back, she'll prolly stay relatively moderate unlike Justice who is now normie GOP governor.

A big part of the question is does she plan on seeking re-election

Interestingly, Hofmeister is voting for Lankford in the Senate election.

Source

Moderator note: I moved your link onto the word "Source".  Very long URLs will cause the page to be too wide.

[Orwell]

Stitt by 8-10

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1587867933971304451?s=20&t=uzPXqm0h...

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1587867933971304451?s=20&t=uzPXqm0h...

Do you believe Hofmeister has a better chance at winning than Zeldin does at this point?