OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1579491387216912385

The Oklahoma tribes are generally very socially conservative and far from committed Dems.  I doubt they would all go out on a limb like this without significant evidence that it was actually close.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1579491387216912385

Stitt has had a very antagonistic relationship with the tribes and apparently blocked funds for them, so it's not surprising to me that they are endorsing Hofmeister. It would be extraordinary if Democrats managed to flip Oklahoma of all states in a year like this, although I still think Stitt is going to win without much difficulty.

[new_patomic]

It probably amounts to nothing but

One does get the feeling that Stitt has actively wanted to lose.

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1579182262956232704?s=20&t=Wm5m5ofW...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRuqEDhm/

A tik tok from an Oklahoma based reporter breaks down the tribes endorsements (albeit from a very left view).

Stitt has been very aggressive with the tribes, which recently have become some deeply red parts of the state, while also being willing to vote for democrats. There were still three democratic state representatives in the eastern part of the state as recently as 2018.

Also don’t forget in 2018 Drew Edmondson was able to draw attention to the state, as well as the stunning flip by Kendra Horn. It seems that Oklahoma has a much more elastic nature then one (me included) would have suspected.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

who has the coveted Frank Garrett endorsement

[Orwell]

who has the coveted Frank Garrett endorsement

He died in like 2011

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny that NEB, OK, SD are in play and not TX and FL and OH all these races are 7 pts or less and we're won by Rs by 30 pts that's why Ryan and Beasley can win

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

who has the coveted Frank Garrett endorsement

He died in like 2011

no he's still alive see video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hecup3SP8-c

[new_patomic]

Damn

https://twitter.com/DanSnyderFOX25/status/1582079315373539330?s=20&t=ZjhAqr0...

[Senator Incitatus]

EVERY STATE IS COMPETITIVE

Willing to go as far as calling this a toss-up, this being the second consecutive poll with Hofmeister ahead, the third overall, and the second highest raw result (behind an outlier Stitt 55%) either candidate has gotten since September.

It will be interesting to see how Hofmeister governs if she wins. Oklahoma is significantly different from Louisiana or Kentucky, and Hofmeister (a literal DINO) is a significantly different type of politician than Laura Kelly.

[Figueira]

I could believe a Democrat winning a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, but I'm skeptical of these polls because they also show the Senate races being a lot closer than they should be. Lankford in particularly has always been a strong performer in his races.

[Calthrina950]

I could believe a Democrat winning a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, but I'm skeptical of these polls because they also show the Senate races being a lot closer than they should be. Lankford in particularly has always been a strong performer in his races.

I think Lankford and Mullin will win by more than the polls indicate, but it's not hard for me to see the two Horns getting above 30%. Oklahoma County has swung left over the past decade, and both Trump and Inhofe came within a few thousand votes of losing it in 2020. And of course, polarization will lower the ceiling for even the strongest incumbents.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People need to stop thinking about this as D vs R. Everyone remembers Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week.

This is akin to running Greg Orman against Sam Brownback in 2014.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I could believe a Democrat winning a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma, but I'm skeptical of these polls because they also show the Senate races being a lot closer than they should be. Lankford in particularly has always been a strong performer in his races.

I think Lankford and Mullin will win by more than the polls indicate, but it's not hard for me to see the two Horns getting above 30%. Oklahoma County has swung left over the past decade, and both Trump and Inhofe came within a few thousand votes of losing it in 2020. And of course, polarization will lower the ceiling for even the strongest incumbents.

Also generally Oklahoma seems like a place where Dems are pretty close to rock bottom. Basically the only communities they win are heavily Black/Hispanic parts of OKC and Tulsa. Suburbs are insanely R and we already know the story with rural areas, even those with high Native populations.

Maybe in the right circumstances a Republican could juice out an extra point or two from Trump, but it's really hard to see how Dems fall below 30%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Note to those who post polls of this race in the polling subforum: there is only one "f" in Hofmeister's name.

[clever but short]

Damn

https://twitter.com/DanSnyderFOX25/status/1582079315373539330?s=20&t=ZjhAqr0...

The most bizarre part of this poll is that it is way better for Ryan Walters for State Supt. than other recent polls, which I don't think anyone in the state would expect at all. I don't feel like we had any indication that the difference between Gov. and State Supt would flip completely like this, which makes me skeptical of the poll overall to be honest. Really Twilight zone stuff for polling today.

[new_patomic]

We've got a race

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1582169065946509312?s=20&t=TvobpHwRY...

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

We need a total and complete shutdown of Oklahoma until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[Holmes]

We need a total and complete shutdown of Oklahoma until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

Let’s just make that indefinite.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We need a total and complete shutdown of Oklahoma until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

Let’s just make that indefinite.

Tbf, I’m not sure we can ever figure out what’s going on there, so I think that would work either way.

[Mr. Smith]

I'd have to say Holy 2002 Batman if this flips and Drazhan wins Oregon after all.

[wbrocks67]

This is just embarrassing for the GOP

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1582505610234298368

[ProgressiveModerate]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

[clever but short]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

A bit off topic but how do you think Oklahoma county goes in the senate race? Will Mullin and Lankford carry it or will trends end the county sweep?