OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1587867933971304451

Do you believe Hofmeister has a better chance at winning than Zeldin does at this point?

Yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She's losing now in an R internals 52/39 I posted last night

[Skunk]

Well, this race has certainly gotten a lot more interesting since I first created this thread, huh?

Anyway, if you want to know why this race is competitive, here's the main rundown:

1. Education: Oklahoma's education system has been struggling for years. Teacher strikes over lack of education funding and teacher pay raises were one of the most pressing concerns during the 2018 election. Kevin Stitt's campaign successfully managed to portray him as an outsider businessman distanced from the massively unpopular Mary Fallin, but now that Stitt's actually in charge, he's being bogged down by the same issues that sunk Mary Fallin's approval ratings. Stitt has campaigned against teacher pay raises at a time when rural schools are struggling to stay open five days a week, instead opting to push an unpopular voucher plan to subsidize private religious schools and trying to wage a culture war against critical race theory and trans people. You would expect these issues to play well in Oklahoma, but it's hard to convince rural Oklahomans that their kids are being indoctrinated by members of their community that they trust.

Side note, but if any Democrat is the most likely to win in Oklahoma, it's Jena Nelson, not Joy Hofmeister. She's running for State Superintendent of Public Instruction this year against incumbent Stitt appointed Secretary of Education (state superintendent of public instruction and secretary of education are different positions, with the former being an elected row office and the latter being an unelected cabinet position) Ryan Walters. Walters has been Stitt's right-hand man on his voucher plan and culture war while Nelson, a small town middle school teacher who won the state's Teacher of the Year award, has been running a campaign on investing in rural schools and increased teacher pay and has received the endorsements from rural newspapers across the state.

2. Tribal relations: Kevin Stitt may be Oklahoma's first Cherokee governor but that doesn't mean he's a friend of the tribes. As noted earlier in the thread, Hofmeister made waves last month when it was announced that the leaders of the Five Tribes had endorsed her. Stitt has been feuding with tribal sovereignty for years, constantly lambasting the McGirt decision that gave tribal jurisdiction when it comes to court cases involving Native Americans. This has given the tribes more autonomy within the state which has angered Stitt. Stitt's continual outrage at the McGirt decision and the hostile relations with his tribe has caused criticism even among Republicans, with one of the top Republican legislators describing Stitt's actions as "racist" and Kevin Stitt's appointed Attorney General John O'Connor losing the primary to Gentner Drummond due to O'Connor's calls to disband the tribes and O'Connor being appointed to the job. The tribes still carry a lot of political influence in Oklahoma, especially in this instance where they are uniting against a single political candidate in a way that Oklahoma hasn't seen in a long time.

3. Corruption: Kevin Stitt has been criticized for his lack of transparency in the governor's office. Another reason why O'Connor lost the primary to Drummond is that Drummond highlighted O'Connor being a Stitt appointee, criticizing how O'Connor got the job and accusing Stitt of patronage. Recently, investigative reporting has highlighted how Stitt does not live in the governor's mansion and instead plans to build and move to a new mansion. This has been widely criticized, especially when many Oklahomans are still struggling in poverty, and had been covered up by Stitt and his allies. Democrats have seized on this opportunity, using this and his voucher plan as a way to paint Stitt as out of touch with ordinary Oklahomans.

Of course, all of this begs the question, how likely is it that Kevin Stitt actually loses? As much as it pains me to say it, not very. Hofmeister is certainly in a better position than Edmondson was four years ago, who didn't lead a single post Labor Day poll and never crossed higher than 44%. Her recent Republican past and Superintendent of Public Instruction has helped her convince a sizeable amount of Republicans and conservative Independents to vote for her, but I don't think it's going to be enough in the end. I expect Stitt to win by a measly mid-to-high single digit margin, an absolutely pathetic win for a Republican running in one of the reddest states in the country during a Democratic midterm that will hopefully kill Stitt's brazen aspirations for higher office. That being said though, I wouldn't count out Hofmeister completely. Kevin Stitt certainly hasn't made this race easy for himself. And while I'll be disappointed by the results if Hofmeister can't pull off one of the greatest gubernatorial upsets of recent political history, I'm at least grateful this race didn't end up being the snoozer that I thought it was when Hofmeister first announced.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOV Elect💜Joy Hofmeister

[walleye26]

Well, this race has certainly gotten a lot more interesting since I first created this thread, huh?

Anyway, if you want to know why this race is competitive, here's the main rundown:

1. Education: Oklahoma's education system has been struggling for years. Teacher strikes over lack of education funding and teacher pay raises were one of the most pressing concerns during the 2018 election. Kevin Stitt's campaign successfully managed to portray him as an outsider businessman distanced from the massively unpopular Mary Fallin, but now that Stitt's actually in charge, he's being bogged down by the same issues that sunk Mary Fallin's approval ratings. Stitt has campaigned against teacher pay raises at a time when rural schools are struggling to stay open five days a week, instead opting to push an unpopular voucher plan to subsidize private religious schools and trying to wage a culture war against critical race theory and trans people. You would expect these issues to play well in Oklahoma, but it's hard to convince rural Oklahomans that their kids are being indoctrinated by members of their community that they trust.

Side note, but if any Democrat is the most likely to win in Oklahoma, it's Jena Nelson, not Joy Hofmeister. She's running for State Superintendent of Public Instruction this year against incumbent Stitt appointed Secretary of Education (state superintendent of public instruction and secretary of education are different positions, with the former being an elected row office and the latter being an unelected cabinet position) Ryan Walters. Walters has been Stitt's right-hand man on his voucher plan and culture war while Nelson, a small town middle school teacher who won the state's Teacher of the Year award, has been running a campaign on investing in rural schools and increased teacher pay and has received the endorsements from rural newspapers across the state.

2. Tribal relations: Kevin Stitt may be Oklahoma's first Cherokee governor but that doesn't mean he's a friend of the tribes. As noted earlier in the thread, Hofmeister made waves last month when it was announced that the leaders of the Five Tribes had endorsed her. Stitt has been feuding with tribal sovereignty for years, constantly lambasting the McGirt decision that gave tribal jurisdiction when it comes to court cases involving Native Americans. This has given the tribes more autonomy within the state which has angered Stitt. Stitt's continual outrage at the McGirt decision and the hostile relations with his tribe has caused criticism even among Republicans, with one of the top Republican legislators describing Stitt's actions as "racist" and Kevin Stitt's appointed Attorney General John O'Connor losing the primary to Gentner Drummond due to O'Connor's calls to disband the tribes and O'Connor being appointed to the job. The tribes still carry a lot of political influence in Oklahoma, especially in this instance where they are uniting against a single political candidate in a way that Oklahoma hasn't seen in a long time.

3. Corruption: Kevin Stitt has been criticized for his lack of transparency in the governor's office. Another reason why O'Connor lost the primary to Drummond is that Drummond highlighted O'Connor being a Stitt appointee, criticizing how O'Connor got the job and accusing Stitt of patronage. Recently, investigative reporting has highlighted how Stitt does not live in the governor's mansion and instead plans to build and move to a new mansion. This has been widely criticized, especially when many Oklahomans are still struggling in poverty, and had been covered up by Stitt and his allies. Democrats have seized on this opportunity, using this and his voucher plan as a way to paint Stitt as out of touch with ordinary Oklahomans.

Of course, all of this begs the question, how likely is it that Kevin Stitt actually loses? As much as it pains me to say it, not very. Hofmeister is certainly in a better position than Edmondson was four years ago, who didn't lead a single post Labor Day poll and never crossed higher than 44%. Her recent Republican past and Superintendent of Public Instruction has helped her convince a sizeable amount of Republicans and conservative Independents to vote for her, but I don't think it's going to be enough in the end. I expect Stitt to win by a measly mid-to-high single digit margin, an absolutely pathetic win for a Republican running in one of the reddest states in the country during a Democratic midterm that will hopefully kill Stitt's brazen aspirations for higher office. That being said though, I wouldn't count out Hofmeister completely. Kevin Stitt certainly hasn't made this race easy for himself. And while I'll be disappointed by the results if Hofmeister can't pull off one of the greatest gubernatorial upsets of recent political history, I'm at least grateful this race didn't end up being the snoozer that I thought it was when Hofmeister first announced.

Great analysis. A question I had for you was how many counties do you think Hofmeister wins? I was thinking she wins Oklahoma, Cleveland, Muskogee, Cherokee, and perhaps Payne, Comanche, or Tulsa.  I was also going to ask if you think that she does the following:
1) Could actually get the legislature to work with her?
2) Would pull a Jim Justice and switch back to the GOP shortly after being in office?

[GollumAttorney]

How did Stitt lose Tulsa County?

[clever but short]

How did Stitt lose Tulsa County?

Stitt antagonized Tulsa Public Schools + Hofmeister, not just Stitt, is from there + it was bound to happen relatively soon due to suburban realignment.

[bagelman]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Okies who read the newspaper comparing Sitt to Xi Jingping and claimed Sitt was anti-Trump, got pissed at Sitt, and waltzed up to the voting booth and circled in the option to vote straight ticket Republican to show him who's boss!

Straight ticket voting should be outlawed. While there is a kosher historical reason for it, the chicken that appears for Democrats clearly looks less appealing to certain people than the eagle for Republicans.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Okies who read the newspaper comparing Sitt to Xi Jingping and claimed Sitt was anti-Trump, got pissed at Sitt, and waltzed up to the voting booth and circled in the option to vote straight ticket Republican to show him who's boss!

Is that supposed to be a pun I just don't understand? 🤷🏼‍♂️

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Okies who read the newspaper comparing Sitt to Xi Jingping and claimed Sitt was anti-Trump, got pissed at Sitt, and waltzed up to the voting booth and circled in the option to vote straight ticket Republican to show him who's boss!

Is that supposed to be a pun I just don't understand? 🤷🏼‍♂️

No, some people are just idiots. I've told the story of my mom's friend in 2012 who thought voting straight R was a vote for Obama, because only Rs did good things.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Okies who read the newspaper comparing Sitt to Xi Jingping and claimed Sitt was anti-Trump, got pissed at Sitt, and waltzed up to the voting booth and circled in the option to vote straight ticket Republican to show him who's boss!

Is that supposed to be a pun I just don't understand? 🤷🏼‍♂️

No, some people are just idiots. I've told the story of my mom's friend in 2012 who thought voting straight R was a vote for Obama, because only Rs did good things.

I was referring to bagelman permanently calling Governor Stitt "Sitt". I can't be a slip, so he either doesn't know his correct name, or it must be a pun I am too dumb to understand.

[bagelman]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Okies who read the newspaper comparing Sitt to Xi Jingping and claimed Sitt was anti-Trump, got pissed at Sitt, and waltzed up to the voting booth and circled in the option to vote straight ticket Republican to show him who's boss!

Is that supposed to be a pun I just don't understand? 🤷🏼‍♂️

No, some people are just idiots. I've told the story of my mom's friend in 2012 who thought voting straight R was a vote for Obama, because only Rs did good things.

I was referring to bagelman permanently calling Governor Stitt "Sitt". I can't be a slip, so he either doesn't know his correct name, or it must be a pun I am too dumb to understand.

It's the former but I don't respect him enough to correct it.

[Skunk]

Well that ended up being a total flop. We need IceSpear back.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Oil and evangelicalism prevent Dems from getting the numbers they need in Tulsa county.