Describe a Haddad 2018 Bolsonaro 2022 voter

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Who would such a voter be?

[Vice President Christian Man]

A progressive who hates Covid-restrictions

[thebeloitmoderate]

some big city or northeastern brazilian who thought bolsonaro had this macho style

[buritobr]

Some voter of very poor rural municipality in the North or Northeast who voted for Fernando Collor 1989, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1994 and 1998, José Serra 2002, started to vote for PT when Lula created the Bolsa Família (income transfer program), voted for Lula 2006, Dilma Rousseff 2010 and 2014 and Fernando Haddad 2018. If Bolsonaro increases the size of the income transfer, this voter can go back to the right, although I think very few will do it. Lula and Dilma administrations are very well rated in the Northeast not only because of Bolsa Família, but also because of the raise of the minimum wage and other social programs.

But the possibility of a few voters like these can be considered. Probably, Bolsonaro will loose a lot of support in the metro areas in the South and Southeast (because he did very well here in 2018), but the rural areas of the North and Northeast can become stable or even swing for the right. According to recent polls at state level, Bolsonaro lost a lot of support in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, but the polls show for Northeastern states in 2022 a similar scenario to 2018.

[buritobr]

You should note that now, Bolsonaro's approval rate in the group of voters who voted for Haddad 2018 is at single digit

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1445516118651588609

[Red Velvet]

You should note that now, Bolsonaro's approval rate in the group of voters who voted for Haddad 2018 is at single digit

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1445516118651588609

I will just put the info of this poll translated here. Only 3% of the Haddad voters approve the Bolsonaro government. Meanwhile, more than a quarter of the people who voted for him have jumped ship.

I bolded the results which could indicate the ceiling of potential cross voter. But it’s not exact science because some weirdos could approve Bolsonaro but still prefer PT more. Or disapprove Bolsonaro but hate Lula even more.

Evaluation of the Bolsonaro government between…

People who voted Haddad 2018
Positive 3%
Regular 15%
Negative 81%

People who voted Bolsonaro 2018
Approve 41%
Regular 32%
Negative 26%

People who voted Blank/Null in 2018
Positive 6%
Regular 21%
Negative 71%

People who didn’t vote in 2018
Positive 13%
Regular 24%
Negative 60%

Basically, Bolsonaro is only losing 2018 voters while not really winning much people over. But I guess the most likely, although still vague, possibility of this type of people are extremely low information voters that aren’t paying much attention or don’t care about what’s going on; extremely poor that they would already be satisfied with minimum money transfer from COVID help; also with strong pro-incumbent bias who want a familiar name (and that’s where being president could help?).

[CumbrianLefty]

Not terribly numerous, and happily so.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Dipsh**t

[crals]

Someone who hates Lula but thought Haddad wasn't that bad

[buritobr]

Someone who hates Lula but thought Haddad wasn't that bad

Yes, there is this kind of middle class voter. Many of them voted for Marina Silva in the 1st round in 2014 and for Aécio Neves in the runoff, and voted for Ciro Gomes in the 1st round in 2018 and for Fernando Haddad in the runoff. Probably this voter will choose Ciro Gomes or Eduardo Leite in the 1st round in 2022, but he/she will wear masks, gloves and cast a vote for Lula in the runoff against Bolsonaro.

[SnowLabrador]

A progressive who hates Covid-restrictions

Probably this. Such a person, in my view, could hardly be called a progressive; they were literally having to intubate people without sedating them first.

[buritobr]

A progressive who hates Covid-restrictions

Probably this. Such a person, in my view, could hardly be called a progressive; they were literally having to intubate people without sedating them first.

This kind of people doesn't exist in Brazil. There is no Sahra Wagenknecht, Raquel Varela and Leufven here.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is very pro-vaccination country. The pandemic denialists are very low in number and the ones which exist are very very conservative.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Dipsh**t

Why? They got smarter during the 4 years in between !

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Fiscally liberal/socially conservative hispanics upset about critical race theory.

[Builder Refused]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGogyxerhgs This but imagine they're speaking Brazilian

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGogyxerhgs This but imagine they're speaking Brazilian

There’s a big difference, of course, between supporting the anti-establishment candidate and the handpicked candidate of a powerful former president.

[Zebulan9003]

Thought Lula was bad but was willing to give Haddad a chance?

[doopy pants]

What do we the think now?

[Red Velvet]

What do we the think now?

Seeing how the PT improved its % in almost ALL regions compared to 2018, except Northeast, where they got around 0,5% less this time, I would guess a tiny minority of a Northeast voter who fell for the huge amounts of economic populism Bolsonaro pulled out of his ass in the past months?

That said this number shift in Northeast is practically irrelevant considering the high margins Lula got in the region and that he increased his vote there too if you don’t look at %s. So possibly nobody in the end? This is how vote in brute numbers changed for PT (Haddad to Lula) across the country:

Southeast +7,7M votes
Center West +928k
North +655k
Northeast +2,2M
South +1,6M

Overall: Haddad 47M (2018) - Lula 60,3M (2022)

And this is how the BOLSONARO vote changed:

Southeast -1,3M votes
Center-West +168k
North +539k
Northeast +1,1M
South -144k

Overall: Bolsonaro 57,8M (2018) - Bolsonaro 58,2M

The few new votes from Bolsonaro came from Northeast. If he didn’t gain 1M new votes there (even if Lula got double that from Haddad), he would’ve ended with less vote than in 2018 in the overall count.

[Tartarus Sauce]

What do we the think now?

Seeing how the PT improved its % in almost ALL regions compared to 2018, except Northeast, where they got around 0,5% less this time, I would guess a tiny minority of a Northeast voter who fell for the huge amounts of economic populism Bolsonaro pulled out of his ass in the past months?

That said this number shift in Northeast is practically irrelevant considering the high margins Lula got in the region and that he increased his vote there too if you don’t look at %s. So possibly nobody in the end? This is how vote in brute numbers changed for PT (Haddad to Lula) across the country:

Southeast +7,7M votes
Center West +928k
North +655k
Northeast +2,2M
South +1,6M

Overall: Haddad 47M (2018) - Lula 60,3M (2022)

And this is how the BOLSONARO vote changed:

Southeast -1,3M votes
Center-West +168k
North +539k
Northeast +1,1M
South -144k

Overall: Bolsonaro 57,8M (2018) - Bolsonaro 58,2M

The few new votes from Bolsonaro came from Northeast. If he didn’t gain 1M new votes there (even if Lula got double that from Haddad), he would’ve ended with less vote than in 2018 in the overall count.

It’s fascinating how little Bolsonaro’s vote total increased. It appears that most of Lula’s vote increase compared to Haddad was propelled by 2018 disaffected non-voters rallying against Bolsonaro, but huge numbers of 2018 Bolsonaro defectors in Rio and São Paulo in particular is what clinched him the victory.