Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

[mileslunn]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

In Latin America, Santiago has started consistently voting to the left of Chile as a whole and Petro overperformed in Bogota. On the other hand, Buenos Aires votes to the right of the country which is complicated by the fact that the city is a stronghold of anti-Peronism of both the right and the left, so non-Peronist left parties do pretty well there.

Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

More common in North America.  Both Ottawa and Washington are not largest cities and more civil servant based.  In US vast majority of state capitals tend to be this too and usually only a handful of state capitals vote GOP even in solid red states.  But true in Europe much like most of South America although not Brazil, capital is often largest city too so financial centre as well.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa is kind of similar, and arguably has a similar sort of pattern to Brasilia where the downtown ridings full of Federal workers vote left while the suburbs, exurbs and boonies are way to the right.

Not really *way* to the right, other than the outermost exurbs/boonies--sensible-middle that can park right of centre on occasion and according to circumstance is more like it.  They certainly aren't *Bolsonaro* right, unless you want to frame Pierre Poilievre in such terms.  (In fact, provincially speaking, Ottawa has generically and contrarily swung *away* from Doug Ford Tory populism relative to the rest of the province.  So the parallels are really more w/NOVA...)

Exactly.  A decade ago it voted to right of country and province as left dominated city centre, but suburbs and rural areas generally voted right.  In last decade has swung quite a bit to left and only reason right still wins some ridings is it includes a lot of rural areas.  Poilievre's riding may technically be in Ottawa but its largely rural, small towns, and exurban.  It would be comparable to Frederick county, Maryland or Stafford County, Virginia which Trump won in 2016 although Biden flipped in 2020.

One I can think of that leans right is the Cities of London & Westminster.  London as a whole very much leans left but central part is a Tory stronghold as Tories won it even in 1997 landslide.  That constituency is where parliament and most government buildings are.  Mind you so is the stock exchange and a lot of the large firms.  Never mind its a very wealthy constituency.  Although margins have fallen a lot in recent elections and good chance Tories lose it in next one

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Brasilia's big rightwards swing - it used to vote to the left of the country as a whole - makes sense considering the caste (there isn't a better word for it, so it will serve) issue that has become such an important feature of Brazilian voting patterns in recent decades. It also lacks working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree (a demo that continues to be quite loyal to Lula it seems) and middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities to find the reality of Bolsonaro in power less appealing than sticking it to the PT again. Not surprising that it wouldn't have many of the first, but the latter is intriguing and probably could do with some sort of explanation. But in the end it makes sense from one angle: it's a dreadful city, so it is right that it has dreadful politics.

What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

Probably. "Working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree" reads like "lower SES Brazilians with more European ancestry and more visible European features".

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Brasilia's big rightwards swing - it used to vote to the left of the country as a whole - makes sense considering the caste (there isn't a better word for it, so it will serve) issue that has become such an important feature of Brazilian voting patterns in recent decades. It also lacks working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree (a demo that continues to be quite loyal to Lula it seems) and middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities to find the reality of Bolsonaro in power less appealing than sticking it to the PT again. Not surprising that it wouldn't have many of the first, but the latter is intriguing and probably could do with some sort of explanation. But in the end it makes sense from one angle: it's a dreadful city, so it is right that it has dreadful politics.

What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

Probably. "Working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree" reads like "lower SES Brazilians with more European ancestry and more visible European features".

I'm curious because Brasilia seems to have similar racial demographics to Brazil as a whole, so if Al is referring to "race"/cor I'd love some elaboration.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm curious because Brasilia seems to have similar racial demographics to Brazil as a whole, so if Al is referring to "race"/cor I'd love some elaboration.

Essentially not everyone in the pardo racial category is socially equal. Someone with 'one foot in the kitchen', to use Cardoso's sly description of himself, is not so very different from someone with exclusive European ancestry and would once have routinely checked the 'white' box on a census: finding a sense of pride in having some 'rougher' ancestry is not inconsistent with a refusal to cheerfully give up all social privileges of course.* It's all very murky and complicated.

_{*From a British perspective it reminds me a little of people from families that have been solidly upper middle class for multiple generations liking to be able to point to a branch of the family a bit further back that wasn't. Very different social phenomena and dynamics, yes, but there are some psychological similarities at work.}

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/ArthurWelle/status/1588251948326653952

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/ArthurWelle/status/1588251948326653952

Cool map. Also shows how the population is distributed alongside the country. The number of people living in the North or in the Center-West is very little, especially for the area these regions have.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is probably been mentioned but ive just noticed PSOL and REDE have merged? These were not parties I particularly associated together, what's with this?

[Antonio the Sixth]

A few more trend maps, if there's any interest. First, 2014 to 2022 - this is the closest to a fair comparison as it's the only other runoff that was remotely competitive in modern Brazilian history.



That's, uh. Interesting. Basically São Paulo vs the world, except for DF and a bit of the Nordeste. To be fair, I guess what it shows is mostly stability across most states, but SP on the one hand and RJ plus most of the North on the other stand out. And the Nordeste kind of stayed put overall (a 3-point right-wing trend) but different states went different ways. Really strange map overall, I'm not sure what to make of it but I'm sure some Brazilian posters can help.


And this one, 2006-2022, compares with the last time Lula was on the ballot:



Here again, definitely a mixed bag in terms of regional patterns. Lula still did very well in SP but collapsed in the rest of the Sudeste. The North still zooms to the right except for Pará, while the Nordeste actually held up better for Lula than any other region, though there are still variations between states (Sergipe is the only one where he actually improved from is 2006 results in absolute terms). Overall, still not totally sure what's happening here, but the patterns are striking for sure.

[CumbrianLefty]

*From a British perspective it reminds me a little of people from families that have been solidly upper middle class for multiple generations liking to be able to point to a branch of the family a bit further back that wasn't. Very different social phenomena and dynamics, yes, but there are some psychological similarities at work

Hence "my *grandad* was the son of a miner" in a recent Labour selection contest

[Red Velvet]

A few more trend maps, if there's any interest. First, 2014 to 2022 - this is the closest to a fair comparison as it's the only other runoff that was remotely competitive in modern Brazilian history.



That's, uh. Interesting. Basically São Paulo vs the world, except for DF and a bit of the Nordeste. To be fair, I guess what it shows is mostly stability across most states, but SP on the one hand and RJ plus most of the North on the other stand out. And the Nordeste kind of stayed put overall (a 3-point right-wing trend) but different states went different ways. Really strange map overall, I'm not sure what to make of it but I'm sure some Brazilian posters can help.


And this one, 2006-2022, compares with the last time Lula was on the ballot:



Here again, definitely a mixed bag in terms of regional patterns. Lula still did very well in SP but collapsed in the rest of the Sudeste. The North still zooms to the right except for Pará, while the Nordeste actually held up better for Lula than any other region, though there are still variations between states (Sergipe is the only one where he actually improved from is 2006 results in absolute terms). Overall, still not totally sure what's happening here, but the patterns are striking for sure.

Amazonas and Rio de Janeiro being the most dark blue in the 2006-2022 shift comparison is 100% Evangelical propaganda influence having wider reach in lower income classes in those states. Which directly affects vote that had previously went to PT.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, here's a plot of the runoff results by region:



Amazing that despite the relative "depolarization", Lula still only won Nordeste while Bolsonaro won the other 4 regions. This is actually the first time a candidate's victory is entirely due to a single region (PT candidates actually won the Sudeste until 2010, and of course the North used to be a stronghold as recently as 2014). Of course, it also couldn't have been possible without large swings in the Southern regions, especially Sudeste. Still, I guess the relative ordering of regions from left to right hasn't changed since 2006 (although if things go on like they have in the past decades, you can easily imagine the North eventually falling behind). Meanwhile, ultimately, Nordeste has been voting almost identically in every election since 2010, so it's definitely hard to see it swinging away from PT.

[H. Ross Peron]

I hate how you can't find decent Paint-editable base maps anymore for some reason, but here's the best I could do with what I have to work with:



This is trend, so controlling for national swing.

Worth noting that while Nordeste moved significantly to the right this time around, that comes after two cycles of a pretty intense leftward trend. Especially impressive that in some states Haddad did better than Dilma'14 or Dilma'14 did better than Dilma'10 (or both in Paraíba's case!). So the Nordeste still came in strong for Lula. It also seems like it tends to trend toward the incumbent when there is one running, so the move toward Bolsonaro makes some amount of sense in this regard.

This can't help but remind me of the 1974-1981 swings in the French overseas territories. There is a case for low income/socially marginalized areas/demographics to swing pro incumbent globally it seems...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, here's a plot of the runoff results by region:



Amazing that despite the relative "depolarization", Lula still only won Nordeste while Bolsonaro won the other 4 regions. This is actually the first time a candidate's victory is entirely due to a single region (PT candidates actually won the Sudeste until 2010, and of course the North used to be a stronghold as recently as 2014). Of course, it also couldn't have been possible without large swings in the Southern regions, especially Sudeste. Still, I guess the relative ordering of regions from left to right hasn't changed since 2006 (although if things go on like they have in the past decades, you can easily imagine the North eventually falling behind). Meanwhile, ultimately, Nordeste has been voting almost identically in every election since 2010, so it's definitely hard to see it swinging away from PT.

Not too different from 2014...main differences being the North being significantly less friendly and the SE being significantly more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This can't help but remind me of the 1974-1981 swings in the French overseas territories. There is a case for low income/socially marginalized areas/demographics to swing pro incumbent globally it seems...

Well, to an extent. As we've seen just this year, DTOMs are not really pro-incumbent anymore. There isn't really one universal rule that explains the voting patterns of underprivileged areas. And at the end of the day the Nordeste remains overwhelmingly PT. We can see that short-term cash handouts like Bolsonaro did go some way there, but clearly not as far as the long-term structural programs Lula put in place.

It's also worth noting that Lula actually got an extremely high share of Nordeste's registered voters - he got 53.2%, which is higher than anyone since... himself in 2006 (when he got 56.7%). Still, he did better than Dilma both times and Haddad. Bolsonaro's 23.5% is also better than any right-winger since Serra in 2002, so I guess a big part of what happened here is both sides being more mobilized than they've been in a long time.

[Red Velvet]

New York Times: What can US democracy learn from Brazil?

[Red Velvet]

Every election result in Brazil republic, updated:

[2952-0-0]

New York Times: What can US democracy learn from Brazil?

I think the biggest reason why Brazil's political and economic elite immediately shut down Bolsonaro's attempt at doing a January 6 was that they all had personal experiences of the dictatorship.

[Red Velvet]

New York Times: What can US democracy learn from Brazil?

I think the biggest reason why Brazil's political and economic elite immediately shut down Bolsonaro's attempt at doing a January 6 was that they all had personal experiences of the dictatorship.

That is only one thing - historical memory making more people aware of the stakes.

But to me, there are 3 differences that are even more significant.

1. Party fragmentation in Brazil making much harder to kidnap one political party structure and get its unquestioned support.

2. Active and more decentralized judiciary system holding abuses and attacks on democracy on a tighter leash.

3. Modern voting system allowing a very quick and transparent counting of the votes that adds credibility to the process among society.

[Mike88]

Every election result in Brazil republic, updated:

The Vargas 1950 jingle is very catchy "Vota no retrato do velho outra vez, vota no mesmo lugar. O sorriso do velhinho faz a gente trabalhar".

Dilma's jingles are quite awful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every election result in Brazil republic, updated:

The Vargas 1950 jingle is very catchy "Vota no retrato do velho outra vez, vota no mesmo lugar. O sorriso do velhinho faz a gente trabalhar".

Dilma's jingles are quite awful.

I think Quadros' is my favorite.

[RicardoCampos]

Seeing a lot of comments from people from USA/Europe here, I'm not surprised why the working class in these countries has come to vote for the right/far right. The left in these countries has become a party of educated rich from downtown and Woke culture. I would always prefer a party that looks more at the poorest and most marginalized.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seeing a lot of comments from people from USA/Europe here, I'm not surprised why the working class in these countries has come to vote for the right/far right. The left in these countries has become a party of educated rich from downtown and Woke culture. I would always prefer a party that looks more at the poorest and most marginalized.

Is it fair to say that Latin America's marked by a certain kind of "class solidarity" that you don't see in large sections of US and Europe?

[RicardoCampos]

Seeing a lot of comments from people from USA/Europe here, I'm not surprised why the working class in these countries has come to vote for the right/far right. The left in these countries has become a party of educated rich from downtown and Woke culture. I would always prefer a party that looks more at the poorest and most marginalized.

Is it fair to say that Latin America's marked by a certain kind of "class solidarity" that you don't see in large sections of US and Europe?

If much of the working class in Europe/USA is voting for the far right because they feel betrayed or forgotten by the left, then it is also class solidarity.