Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Sestak]

Second posted benchmark was that Bolsonaro led by 5.9% with 8.1% in in the first round.


He's leading by 5.9% now with 6.6% in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A useful thing to keep in mind would be the change in percentage points that Lula needs to hit 50% from the first round: 1.6%.

[Red Velvet]

Lula is doing a lot good with only so much of the vote counted.

THAT SAID, there’s more Northeast vote in there already than it ever was in the 1st round count so not comparable. I have no idea where this ends so soon. Lula needs good margins in Southeast even if he loses there.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 5,028,892 (52.39%)
Lula: 4,569,286 (47.61%)
8.06% REPORTING



My sources say the political death penalty, for landslide defeat, is being considered for @JairBolsonaro. I am pro-choice and take every pleasure in reporting this

[parochial boy]

Looking at Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo, both Lula and Bolsonaro seem to be improving by the same amount on their first round scores. More for for the looking positive news.

[Eraserhead]

Probably going to be painfully close.

No indication of that right now.

I'm preparing myself for the worst!

[Keep Calm and ...]

UOL with graph comparing to 1st round:

https://twitter.com/josuesander/status/1586817732477341697

https://noticias.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/2turno/

[RicardoCampos]

Lula is winning in Minas Gerais: 52.61% x 47.39 with 2.48% counting. Tradition says: whoever wins in Minas Gerais wins in Brazil

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 6,221,621 (52.05%)
Lula: 5,732,531 (47.95%)
10.09% REPORTING

As Lula said in the debate Bolsonaro should have bought the entire population Viagra for prostate cancer.

[KaiserDave]

Trust the plan, patriots in control.

[Mike88]

São Paulo has very little reporting, but it does seem that Lula will win in the end.

[jeron]

Lula is winning in Minas Gerais: 52.61% x 47.39 with 2.48% counting. Tradition says: whoever wins in Minas Gerais wins in Brazil

Bolsonaro won it by more than 15%  in 2018

[RicardoCampos]

Looking at Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo, both Lula and Bolsonaro seem to be improving by the same amount on their first round scores. More for for the looking positive news.

As a resident of both cities, this is disappointing for me. I expected Lula opening a bigger advantage in the 2 capitals. But at least a consistent advantage.

[Red Velvet]

I’m not as confident about a Lula landslide as people are here, seems there’s more Southeast vote left than Northeast one.

That said, I don’t need a landslide, I’m not greedy, any Bolsonaro defeat is something to be happy about.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Two areas have already counted most of their votes. DF is at 90% with Bolsonaro winning by 18 (he won by 15 in the first round). Tocantins is at 70% with Lula winning by 4 (he won by 6 in the first round).

So if that holds nationwide Lula should win by 3 points or so.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1586818115836559365

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hard to draw a conclusion with more northern votes in early and southeastern votes outstanding but I'm feeling pretty good about that 51.5-48.5 Lula prediction

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trust the plan, patriots in control.

In this is contained 13 reasons why you should be hopeful.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1586818115836559365

Yeah but still no Interior vote of SP and RJ scares me. Let’s calm down. If anything I think polls like Datafolha might be right in the end lol

[Silent Hunter]

Well, provided he wins, that's all I am concerned about. The Amazon will be grateful too.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 10,334,542 (51.64%)
Lula: 9,678,557 (48.36%)
17.00% REPORTING

[parochial boy]

Looking at Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo, both Lula and Bolsonaro seem to be improving by the same amount on their first round scores. More for for the looking positive news.

As a resident of both cities, this is disappointing for me. I expected Lula opening a bigger advantage in the 2 capitals. But at least a consistent advantage.

Porto Alegre in particular, given its history for the left wing movement and hosting the World Social Forum and all, it was really sad to see it vote Bolsonaro in 2018. So it's kind of a happy moment to see it going back to Lula this time

[brucejoel99]

Can't wait for the part where Lula says "It's Lulain' time" & then Lulas Brazil.

[win win]

mina gervais is close
lulua won by 6 in the first round
if bolso wins mina gervais, does he win? or still come short

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lula lá, com dignidade
Lula lá, o Brasil merece
Outra vez oportunidade pra sorrir
E brilhar nossa estrela!