Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[omar04]

73% of the population is eligible to vote, of that percentage 75% have a biometric register

[jaichind]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

When do the polls close then ?

[omar04]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

When do the polls close then ?

5PM local time

[Mike88]

Polls close in Portugal in less than a hour, but results could be delayed because of the long lines: In Porto city, the line has 1.5 Kms (almost 1 mile), and in Lisbon the lines are so big that voters wait 2 to 3 hours until voting.

The number of voters rose dramatically compared with 2018, but polling stations remain concentrated in just one place in the two cities, which is creating long lines.

[Mike88]

Polls close in Portugal in less than a hour, but results could be delayed because of the long lines: In Porto city, the line has 1.5 Kms (almost 1 mile), and in Lisbon the lines are so big that voters wait 2 to 3 hours until voting.

Update: Voting has been extended until 8pm Lisbon time (4pm Rio time). As of now, more than 4,000 voters are waiting in line just in Lisbon city.

In other cities across the world, voting hours have also been extended.

[Red Velvet]

I’m noticing a bigger turnout here in my vote station as well. It never has lines, but this year it does.

[Red Velvet]

Lula has so far won in New Zealand, Australia, China, South Korea, Singapore…

Bolsonaro has predictably won Japan only, but since it has a bigger electorate than all those others, the final balance is still positive for Bolsonaro. But his margin from 2018 diminished there as well.

The final exterior vote could be close if all of Europe goes with Lula to compensate for the US numbers inevitably going for Bolsonaro. Although like Japan, I bet his margin in US will somewhat diminish in comparison to 2018.

ETA: Apparently Bolsonaro has also won in Israel, while Lula won in Palestine.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Lula has so far won in New Zealand, Australia, China, South Korea, Singapore…

Bolsonaro has predictably won Japan only, but since it has a bigger electorate than all those others, the final balance is still positive for Bolsonaro. But his margin from 2018 diminished there as well.

The final exterior vote could be close if all of Europe goes with Lula to compensate for the US numbers inevitably going for Bolsonaro. Although like Japan, I bet his margin in US will somewhat diminish in comparison to 2018.

ETA: Apparently Bolsonaro has also won in Israel, while Lula won in Palestine.

Do you have links to these results?

[DL]

I’ll bet Lula wins Canada. The Brazilians here have more in common with Brazilians in Australia and New Zealand than they do with those in the US

[Sebastiansg7]

What is the best site to follow the results, ideally with a NYTimes style map if it's not too much to ask?

Can Lula realistically win in first round?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What is the best site to follow the results, ideally with a NYTimes style map if it's not too much to ask?

Can Lula realistically win in first round?

1. I believe Globo has a good interactive map
2. Yes, it appears that support for other candidates has collapsed in the last week, so Lula could conceivably win in the 1st round, even if Bolsonaro's support is closer to the mid 40s than 40%

[Ferguson97]

Bolsonaro is human trash, here’s hoping he loses.

[jaichind]

With gathering economic storms in the world which could mean a sharp fall in international prices for raw materials the Lula takeover will be poor timing.  The fact that Lula polls much higher than other Center-left candidates in 2018 and 2022 shows part of his appeal are the memories of the economic glory days of 2002-2010 when the overall world economic environment was fairly positive for Brazil.  It seems unlikely that his new term will be so positive.

[Red Velvet]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What were the results in Singapore?

[Mike88]

What were the results in Singapore?

Singapore had Lula at 182 and Bolsonaro at 97. The other candidates results seem to be irrelevant.

[omar04]

Turnout appears to be up with long lines reported nationwide https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/ao-vivo/primeiro-turno-eleicoes.ghtml

[Mike88]

Turnout appears to be up with long lines reported nationwide https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/ao-vivo/primeiro-turno-eleicoes.ghtml

In Rio, the TSE judge says that turnout is quite high, with especially younger and elderly voters turning out in big numbers.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

With gathering economic storms in the world which could mean a sharp fall in international prices for raw materials the Lula takeover will be poor timing.  The fact that Lula polls much higher than other Center-left candidates in 2018 and 2022 shows part of his appeal are the memories of the economic glory days of 2002-2010 when the overall world economic environment was fairly positive for Brazil.  It seems unlikely that his new term will be so positive.

While I agree with you, I think it's basically foolish to predict the trajectory of commodity prices over a time horizon that's longer than 2 years. It's worth remembering that ~18 months ago that most traders were extremely bullish about industrial metals. I am probably about as "bearish" as they come about industrial metals now but I have no idea where we'll stand in 2025.

[jaichind]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

It is hard to predict the future.  I am not saying Brazil will never see economic success in the future because I am still fairly bullish on Brazil in the long run. I am just saying many people might be voting for Lula hoping for the return of 2002-2010 when outperformance on that level is just impossible in the next four years.

[Walmart_shopper]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

It is hard to predict the future.  I am not saying Brazil will never see economic success in the future because I am still fairly bullish on Brazil in the long run. I am just saying many people might be voting for Lula hoping for the return of 2002-2010 when outperformance on that level is just impossible in the next four years.

I think most people are voting for Lula because Bolsonaro is scary and many of his ideas are evil.

[jaichind]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

It is hard to predict the future.  I am not saying Brazil will never see economic success in the future because I am still fairly bullish on Brazil in the long run. I am just saying many people might be voting for Lula hoping for the return of 2002-2010 when outperformance on that level is just impossible in the next four years.

I think most people are voting for Lula because Bolsonaro is scary and many of his ideas are evil.

If I recall correctly Lula had a significant lead over Bolsonaro in 2018 polls while the Center-Left vote collapsed in 2018 after Lula was no longer being polled as a candidate.  All that was before Bolsonaro  became president. 

[Mike88]

Porto city, Portugal, results:

8,703 Lula
4,310 Bolsonaro

https://twitter.com/vicentenunes/status/1576640766926999552

Nothing from Faro yet, and Lisbon's polls are about to close in 20 minutes.

[Double Carpet]

Does anyone have any TV links that don't require subscription etc?

Thanks!

[Mike88]

Does anyone have any TV links that don't require subscription etc?

Thanks!

CNN Brasil:

Record News

SBT

Globo, I remember that they used to post, in past elections, a live feed in their live blog on G1, but I'm not sure if they will do it this time:

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/ao-vivo/primeiro-turno-eleicoes.ghtml