NV: NV Independent: CCM+5

[Xing]

Given that Laxalt is a more known entity in the state, I don't think "conventional wisdom" about undecideds breaking against the incumbent necessarily holds here. Also, while polling may not underestimate Democrats here, there is zero basis for assuming that polling will massively overestimate them here, given that the only time a recent memory that this happened was in a non-competitive race with an absurdly popular governor, and that didn't happen when polling overestimated Democrats in many other states. Masto +5 is probably about as good as it could get for her, and I expect it to be closer, but there's nothing ridiculous about calling Masto favored or saying that she could win by Biden's margin even in a bad year for Democrats, given that Democrats have won Nevada under rough conditions multiple times recently.