NV: NV Independent: CCM+5
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Author Topic: NV: NV Independent: CCM+5  (Read 769 times)
S019
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« on: October 03, 2021, 06:19:12 PM »

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/independent-poll-sisolak-cortez-masto-hold-slim-leads-over-likely-gop-opponents


CCM: 46
Laxalt: 41
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2021, 06:25:38 PM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Obviously it's super early and that's a lot of undecideds, but that's always the case with Nevada only for them to come home to the Democrats and elect them statewide by at least 2% or so.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2021, 06:29:39 PM »

In actuality, it's probably roughly tied. And the national environment is likely to get better for Republicans. Tilt R.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2021, 06:39:22 PM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Is that actually a thing? I feel like most people on here see Cortez Masto as a slight favorite.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2021, 06:42:15 PM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Is that actually a thing? I feel like most people on here see Cortez Masto as a slight favorite.

I don't know, I see a lot of posters being very bearish on this race for Democrats because of Laxalt.
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Matty
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2021, 06:58:09 PM »

Generally speaking, an incumbent being in the mid 40s a year before an election is a strong signal that the race will be a tossup.
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2021, 07:03:01 PM »

In actuality, it's probably roughly tied. And the national environment is likely to get better for Republicans. Tilt R.

Outside of 2020 NV polls always overestimate Republicans, so it's hard to tell whether that pattern will make a comeback in 2022.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2021, 09:07:47 PM »

Great poll for CCM
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2021, 09:09:31 PM »

In actuality, it's probably roughly tied. And the national environment is likely to get better for Republicans. Tilt R.

Outside of 2020 NV polls always overestimate Republicans, so it's hard to tell whether that pattern will make a comeback in 2022.

SISOLAK won and he was behind Laxalt and so was Dean Heller ahead of Rosen in 2018
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2021, 12:01:42 AM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Is that actually a thing? I feel like most people on here see Cortez Masto as a slight favorite.

Well, no, it’s not, and yes, you are completely right about most people here seeing Cortez Masto as a favorite (and no one believing Laxalt is unbeatable or even a particularly strong candidate), but I don’t think the "NV is Titanium Lean D forever" crowd is able to operate without straw men and gross hyperbole.

It should be noted that these numbers are very similar to Kelly's (both in terms of D margin and incumbent's %-age of support), so I don’t think expecting NV and AZ to again vote very similarly in 2022 is all that outlandish. Assuming that polls will forever overestimate Republicans in NV and therefore "unskewing" them by adding a couple of percentage points to the D number is also a fool's errand — polls notably did not underestimate Democrats in 2020, and everyone knows that they sure as hell didn’t in 2014.

Obviously Cortez Masto can win, but if she does, it won’t be because Democrats have an impenetrable floor of 50%/51% here but because Republicans drastically underperformed expectations both in the Southwest and nationally. There is no way 2022 will be anything more favorable than a D-leaning year for the GOP if Cortez Masto is holding Nevada by more than Joe Biden did (and I’m not expecting this to happen).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2021, 04:21:43 AM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Is that actually a thing? I feel like most people on here see Cortez Masto as a slight favorite.

Well, no, it’s not, and yes, you are completely right about most people here seeing Cortez Masto as a favorite (and no one believing Laxalt is unbeatable or even a particularly strong candidate), but I don’t think the "NV is Titanium Lean D forever" crowd is able to operate without straw men and gross hyperbole.

It should be noted that these numbers are very similar to Kelly's (both in terms of D margin and incumbent's %-age of support), so I don’t think expecting NV and AZ to again vote very similarly in 2022 is all that outlandish. Assuming that polls will forever overestimate Republicans in NV and therefore "unskewing" them by adding a couple of percentage points to the D number is also a fool's errand — polls notably did not underestimate Democrats in 2020, and everyone knows that they sure as hell didn’t in 2014.

Obviously Cortez Masto can win, but if she does, it won’t be because Democrats have an impenetrable floor of 50%/51% here but because Republicans drastically underperformed expectations both in the Southwest and nationally. There is no way 2022 will be anything more favorable than a D-leaning year for the GOP if Cortez Masto is holding Nevada by more than Joe Biden did (and I’m not expecting this to happen).

If CCM wins, Biden won't be underwater in Approvals he would be at 5=3 or above which he doesn't need to be until Election day
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2021, 05:54:36 AM »

I like how the article specifically goes after Democrats, saying "there are warning signs for Democrats" when Laxalt is barely clearing 40% here.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2021, 07:09:32 AM »

Now we're talking! So much for the unbeatable golden boy Adam Laxalt meme.

Is that actually a thing? I feel like most people on here see Cortez Masto as a slight favorite.

Well, no, it’s not, and yes, you are completely right about most people here seeing Cortez Masto as a favorite (and no one believing Laxalt is unbeatable or even a particularly strong candidate), but I don’t think the "NV is Titanium Lean D forever" crowd is able to operate without straw men and gross hyperbole.

It should be noted that these numbers are very similar to Kelly's (both in terms of D margin and incumbent's %-age of support), so I don’t think expecting NV and AZ to again vote very similarly in 2022 is all that outlandish. Assuming that polls will forever overestimate Republicans in NV and therefore "unskewing" them by adding a couple of percentage points to the D number is also a fool's errand — polls notably did not underestimate Democrats in 2020, and everyone knows that they sure as hell didn’t in 2014.

Obviously Cortez Masto can win, but if she does, it won’t be because Democrats have an impenetrable floor of 50%/51% here but because Republicans drastically underperformed expectations both in the Southwest and nationally. There is no way 2022 will be anything more favorable than a D-leaning year for the GOP if Cortez Masto is holding Nevada by more than Joe Biden did (and I’m not expecting this to happen).

I think an underrated possibility is one in which Kelly wins and Cortez Masto loses, even if their respective victory and defeat are narrow. I could see this happening if the new Democratic coalition, which relies on higher propensity college-educated voters, makes Democrats slightly stronger in Arizona than in Nevada. This is especially true if Democrats lose more working-class union voters, which from what I understand are a big part of why the Harry Reid Machine has kept Democrats afloat there even in tough circumstances.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2021, 12:56:09 PM »

Given that Laxalt is a more known entity in the state, I don't think "conventional wisdom" about undecideds breaking against the incumbent necessarily holds here. Also, while polling may not underestimate Democrats here, there is zero basis for assuming that polling will massively overestimate them here, given that the only time a recent memory that this happened was in a non-competitive race with an absurdly popular governor, and that didn't happen when polling overestimated Democrats in many other states. Masto +5 is probably about as good as it could get for her, and I expect it to be closer, but there's nothing ridiculous about calling Masto favored or saying that she could win by Biden's margin even in a bad year for Democrats, given that Democrats have won Nevada under rough conditions multiple times recently.
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VAR
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2021, 04:48:15 PM »

This poll has Biden's approval rating at 48/49 (-1), so that's probably more predictive than the H2H matchup which, expectedly, has quite many "undecideds."
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2021, 04:53:02 PM »

D's are losing NV in a 304 map scenario, Biden won NV and so did Hillary with 50/45 or 50/48 Approvals because Hillary won the NPVI over Trump
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