My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Non Swing Voter]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

[Politics Fan]

VA: 53-45 T-MAC
NJ: 57-41 Murphy

Similar story to Cal. Dems improve in the polls as the election gets closer and gets more nationalized. A non unpopular Dem gov is not losing in a blue state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA: 53-45 T-MAC
NJ: 57-41 Murphy

Similar story to Cal. Dems improve in the polls as the election gets closer and gets more nationalized. A non unpopular Dem gov is not losing in a blue state.

VA isn't gonna be won by 8 more like TMac 1/3 pts

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Youngkin and Ciaterelli win

[DS0816]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

And that's exactly why, even though both McAuliffe and Murphy are pretty sure to win, impressive victories are needed. They still may not say everything about 2022, but they'd certainly give Democrats hope going into what should be a rough year for the party but also a year that may very well decide the fate of our struggling republic. The stakes are too high for historical precedent to succeed and allow Republicans a significant victory in most elections.

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA: McAuliffe by at least 5 (TX abortion issue helps swing moderates to T.Mac)

NJ: Murphy by roughly 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

T Mac by 3, although I won't be surprised if Youngkin narrowly pulls it out

[Senator-elect Spark]

Bump. I just updated my final predictions.

[BigSerg]

NJ-GOV:

Phil Murphy (D): 54%
Jack Ciattarelli (R): 46%

VA-GOV:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 51%
Glenn Youngkin (R): 49%

[smoltchanov]

NJ-GOV:

Phil Murphy (D): 54%
Jack Ciattarelli (R): 46%

VA-GOV:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 51%
Glenn Youngkin (R): 49%

Almost identical to my...

[Chips]

I don't think it's all that realistic that Youngkin loses VA by only 1.6% while losing Chesapeake.

[Not Me, Us]

NJ:
Phil Murphy: 54.8
Jack Ciattarelli: 44.1
D+10.7

VA:
Terry McAuliffe: 52.5
Glenn Youngkin: 47.2
D+5.3

If either Ciattarelli or Yougkin win, I'll leave the forum for a year.

[Person Man]

NJ:
Phil Murphy: 54.8
Jack Ciattarelli: 44.1
D+10.7

VA:
Terry McAuliffe: 52.5
Glenn Youngkin: 47.2
D+5.3

If either Ciattarelli or Yougkin win, I'll leave the form for a year.

You Better or you will be called the Second Coming of Sir Woodbury.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

And that's exactly why, even though both McAuliffe and Murphy are pretty sure to win, impressive victories are needed. They still may not say everything about 2022, but they'd certainly give Democrats hope going into what should be a rough year for the party but also a year that may very well decide the fate of our struggling republic. The stakes are too high for historical precedent to succeed and allow Republicans a significant victory in most elections.

Hahaha! Impressive victories. Me from days ago was such an idiot.

New predictions (my New Jersey one is still the same):

Virginia: Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I hate this country...

[Non Swing Voter]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

And that's exactly why, even though both McAuliffe and Murphy are pretty sure to win, impressive victories are needed. They still may not say everything about 2022, but they'd certainly give Democrats hope going into what should be a rough year for the party but also a year that may very well decide the fate of our struggling republic. The stakes are too high for historical precedent to succeed and allow Republicans a significant victory in most elections.

Hahaha! Impressive victories. Me from days ago was such an idiot.

New predictions (my New Jersey one is still the same):

Virginia: Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I hate this country...

you really are a pessimist huh?

[Xing]

NJ-GOV:
Murphy 54%
Ciattarelli 45%

VA-GOV:
McAuliffe 50.5%
Youngkin 48%

Whatever happens, one prediction I'm very confident about: Very few people will acknowledge they were wrong about anything, and most lessons learned will be the wrong ones.