My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Senator-elect Spark]

Previous elections:

California: Oppose +4



Oppose - 52%
Support - 48%

[Senator-elect Spark]

New Jersey - D +8.4%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.8%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 42.4%

Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy has a comfortable victory due to his mid to high approval ratings on handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the minimum wage to $15, legalizing recreational marijuana and sports betting, and a $10 billion surplus in 2021. Gov. Murphy, due to his strong performance on the economy and public health crisis is predicted to win a second term. Murphy will be the first Democrat to win re-election in New Jersey in three decades. My 2017 gubernatorial election prediction in the state was nearly the exact result. Murphy holds steady across the state, especially in educated northern and central New Jersey. He performs well downstate as well due to legalizing gambling.

Ciattarelli has tried running a campaign positioning himself as a competent manager and that Murphy's economic policies have led business away from the state. It has also been about characterizing Murphy as too liberal, "out of touch" with average New Jerseyans, and attacking Murphy's record of high property taxes in the state. These attacks have not worked to a large extent, and New Jersey consistently votes Democratic at both the national and state levels. It also does not bode well for Republicans that NJ is one of the most educated states in the nation, and has some of the strictest gun laws in the country. Enthusiasm may be on the GOP's side, however, to marginally improve on a sub-par 2017 performance.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Virginia: D +1.6



Former Governor Terence "T-Mac" M. McAuliffe - 1,322,202 votes, 49.8%
Businessman Glenn A. Youngkin (R) - 1,281,050 votes, 48.3%

A real nail-biter as former Governor Terry McAuliffe holds on for the win. Youngkin ran a strong campaign on education reform, returning control of students' education from the school boards and teacher unions to parents. He has been positioning himself to contrast McAuliffe's results with his "stellar" business record and sensibilities.

As the polls are tightening in the final stretch, Youngkin can certainly pull off an upset due to having support of 51% of independents, 30% of Hispanics, and 25% of blacks statewide. He also wins about 11% of Democrats. Youngkin makes inroads with suburban voters which traditionally vote Democratic in places like Chesterfield to flip it back for the GOP as well as VA Beach. However, Virginia is a leftward trending state, and Youngkin ultimately falls short due to the overwhelming influence of NOVA on the final result. Youngkin loses lopsided margins in Loudoun 42-57%, Fairfax 35-64%, Alexandria 22-77%. Improving over the previous 2017 nominee, Gillespie, as well as former President Trump in the state.
 
McAuliffe will suffer to due dampened enthusiasm for Democrats up and down the ballot. There also seems to be party fatigue going on in the state. The social issues of guns and abortion will serve to invigorate the Republican base to oust the Democrats from the Governor's mansion.

Gov. Northam's mandates on these issues as well as COVID have been unhelpful as well as President Biden's underwater approvals in Virginia. Biden's approval also lags nationwide which cannot be good for T-Mac in this race as it has become nationalized. In his first bid, McAuliffe barely won with a plurality due to a strong third party showing. If McAuliffe wins a non-consecutive term here, it will be due to the continuing shifting demographics in the state, mail-in voting, and fierce partisanship.

[cg41386]

The NJ map looks good except I'd switch Somerset and Gloucester. Somerset has really zoomed to the left, Gloucester is more split.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R party is DOA in NJ since Christie

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia: D +4.4



Former Governor Terence "T-Mac" M. McAuliffe - 1,325,811 votes, 49.2%
Businessman Glenn A. Youngkin (R) - 1,215,657 votes, 44.8%

Interesting.  You have McAuliffe holding up really well in Hampton Roads vs. elsewhere.  A Dem winning VA Beach while getting under 60% in Prince William would be unusual in this era. 

[SnowLabrador]

NJ-GOV:

Phil Murphy (D): 53.9%
Jack Ciattarelli (R): 44.7%

VA-GOV:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 50.4%
Glenn Youngkin (R): 48.3%

[progressive85]

Both are extremely close, but Phil survives.

Trumpkin is the new Gov of VA in a shocking upset that makes the GOP giddy with glee, and the media takeaway into 2022 is not whether the Republicans take the House, but how large their new majority will be.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

An energized, angry Trump base works with equally-frustrated pocketbook and social issue voters, and Ciattarelli and Youngkin defeat Murphy and McAuliffe respectively.

The GOP and online right throw a massive celebration. DemSocs blackpill and prepare for the worst, and Democrats are left scrambling as to what they can do to stop a red wave. See: Infrastructure Deal and Marijuana executive action before November, leading to a nailbiter midterm.

Source: Predicted the clean Dem sweep in Georgia last year.

[kwabbit]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

I'm well aware of the nationwide trend lag, but that would still mean, after four years since Murphy's last election, that Somerset has still lurched leftward more. And I still say that it's gone for the GOP. Let's be real here, the profoundly unpopular Bob Menendez won it by six points in 2018. I expect Murphy, who is popular, to do better than that, or meet that margin at the bare minimum.

[Skill and Chance]

NJ

Murphy +5.5

R's gain in legislature but don't come close to flipping anything

McAuliffe +2.5 (just like 2013!)
Sears +1
Herring +3.5

HoD: 51D/49R

[kwabbit]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

I'm well aware of the nationwide trend lag, but that would still mean, after four years since Murphy's last election, that Somerset has still lurched leftward more. And I still say that it's gone for the GOP. Let's be real here, the profoundly unpopular Bob Menendez won it by six points in 2018. I expect Murphy, who is popular, to do better than that, or meet that margin at the bare minimum.

Doing some simple math, Somerset trended about 6 points left from 2016 to 2020 given presidential results. If Somerset did the same, going from 12 points to the right in 2017 GOV to 6 points to the right in 2021 GOV, Murphy would hit that 6% win with a 12 point statewide win. Perhaps Ciatarelli will get some sort of home county boost, which has traditionally been quite powerful in previous NJ gubernatorial elections, but it shouldn't really sway it. Maybe it gets pushed to R+8 from the statewide from that.

I myself would say that Murphy is more likely than not to win the county. I'm just saying it's overconfident to say it's gone for the GOP. Any reasonably close result in the statewide race would lead to a Ciatarelli victory. If you think there's no way Murphy wins by less than 7 pts then yeah, Somerset won't be won by Ciatarelli, but if you foresee the possibility of the statewide race becoming tight then saying it's gone is cognitively dissonant. It's an NJ gubernatorial election, writing off a strong Republican result is forgetting the past.

[MT Treasurer]

NJ-GOV: Murphy +10
VA-GOV: McAuliffe +4.5

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

I'm well aware of the nationwide trend lag, but that would still mean, after four years since Murphy's last election, that Somerset has still lurched leftward more. And I still say that it's gone for the GOP. Let's be real here, the profoundly unpopular Bob Menendez won it by six points in 2018. I expect Murphy, who is popular, to do better than that, or meet that margin at the bare minimum.

Doing some simple math, Somerset trended about 6 points left from 2016 to 2020 given presidential results. If Somerset did the same, going from 12 points to the right in 2017 GOV to 6 points to the right in 2021 GOV, Murphy would hit that 6% win with a 12 point statewide win. Perhaps Ciatarelli will get some sort of home county boost, which has traditionally been quite powerful in previous NJ gubernatorial elections, but it shouldn't really sway it. Maybe it gets pushed to R+8 from the statewide from that.

I myself would say that Murphy is more likely than not to win the county. I'm just saying it's overconfident to say it's gone for the GOP. Any reasonably close result in the statewide race would lead to a Ciatarelli victory. If you think there's no way Murphy wins by less than 7 pts then yeah, Somerset won't be won by Ciatarelli, but if you foresee the possibility of the statewide race becoming tight then saying it's gone is cognitively dissonant. It's an NJ gubernatorial election, writing off a strong Republican result is forgetting the past.

Of course another circa 2013 Christie-like candidate could win overwhelmingly, with Somerset in tow, but I don't know when we will ever see that again in our state.

[xavier110]

NJ: D+12 (55-43)
VA: D+7 (53-46)

Yawn

[Roll Roons]

NJ: Murphy by 9
VA: McAuliffe by 5

[Chips]

NJ: Murphy+9

VA: McAuliffe+4

These could change but this is where I have them at right now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh, I still never posted my updated predictions:

-New Jersey: Murphy+12, 56-44.
-Virginia: McAuliffe+6, 52-46.

[CookieDamage]

NJ

Murphy +5.5

R's gain in legislature but don't come close to flipping anything

McAuliffe +2.5 (just like 2013!)
Sears +1
Herring +3.5

HoD: 51D/49R

Please.

[CookieDamage]

NJ

Murphy +13
Murphy: 55
Ciatarelli: 42



I think Murphy loses significant ground in South Jersey compared to 2017, I still think he wins Cumberland, Gloucester, and Atlantic, but they look more like Biden's narrower wins in 2020 compared to Murphy's 2017 double digit wins.

Conversely, I expect suburban North Jersey to swing to the left compared to 2017. I think Murphy will win Somerset by anywhere from 5 to 10 points and turn a 2017 8 point loss in Morris to a 4-5 point loss.

[Progressive Pessimist]

NJ

Murphy +13
Murphy: 55
Ciatarelli: 42



I think Murphy loses significant ground in South Jersey compared to 2017, I still think he wins Cumberland, Gloucester, and Atlantic, but they look more like Biden's narrower wins in 2020 compared to Murphy's 2017 double digit wins.

Conversely, I expect suburban North Jersey to swing to the left compared to 2017. I think Murphy will win Somerset by anywhere from 5 to 10 points and turn a 2017 8 point loss in Morris to a 4-5 point loss.

I am in complete agreement.

[NewYorkExpress]

Virginia:
Youngkin (R) 49.789%
McAuliffe (D) 49.786%

Carroll Foy would have won this race, and it wouldn't have even been close.


New Jersey

Murphy (D) 53%
Ciatterelli (R) 44%

[S019]

McAuliffe+5, 52-47

Murphy+13, 56-43