Is realignment theory dead?

[CascadianIndy]

Hello! Although I've been a semi-recent poster since the summer, I've been lurking on here since 2019 ever since a timeline caught my eye — Between Two Majorities.

Now, rather obviously, the events detailed in it did not transpire due to much higher than expected partisanship, as well as a host of other events, not least the pandemic. The Appalachian vote doesn't look like it'll bolt Democratic anytime soon, and James Carville's emerging democratic majority seems to be stillborn.

My main questions are several.

After the polls missed in 2016 and again in 2020, with the WWC vote swinging only slightly to Biden this round, when will we see another realigning landslide election?

Is a paradigm-shifting landslide a la FDR and Reagan possible again in our day and age and when will it come?

Was the 2008 election the beginning of the Seventh Party System, or are we still stuck in the Hoover/Carter-esque malaise that hangs over the decaying foundation of the Reagan Revolution?

For me, I still think that we'll see a realigning election before 2040, and that the Seventh Party System has yet to begin. What I'm not sure about is what it'll look like.

Will the new coalitions simply be something that's been frequently discussed, like the mythical WWC reversion to the Democrats under Fetterman or Brown cobbled together with the FLDems being competent leading to the long-prophesized 413 map; minorities turning New Mexico and Nevada red with #trends, something boring like continued polarization and the American electorate simply plodding along; or something more out of left field like a religious left resurgence along with racial depolarization returning the South into the fold of the Democratic Party while the Republicans retake the Midwest because of latent secularism?

I'm genuinely not sure, and I'd love to hear your ideas, because this topic has intrigued me just as long as it has confused me.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say Ideologically the realignment happened in 2016 when the overturn window shifted in a much more populist direction. I would say if you separate out Geographic and Ideological these were the realignments

Geographic:

1796
1824
1856
1932
1968
2000


Ideological:

1800
1828
1860
1896
1932
1980
2016

[Agonized-Statism]

Two big reasons why we've missed the mark this time is that we're a less homogenous country than ever with less easily healed divisions, and ideas/movements/leaders are no longer fully discredited in echo chambers created by unprecedented advances in information and communications technology (24-hour news cycle, Internet, social media). The lockdown and protests in 2020 reinforced both. On a deeper level, I think it's a crisis of postmodernism. We're so hypercritical that we tear down any new proposed metanarratives, throw our hands up in the air, and settle for status quo. So we're basically stuck in a holding pattern waiting for the math to start working against the Republicans' coalition and force them to become Democrat lite- it will be a definitive break from the Reagan Era, but it won't come in one definitive moment, just a gradual demographic shift. I personally choose Texas flipping as the barometer.

The answer Biden supporters get really mad when they hear is that the change candidate didn't win the primaries, but that's another big one.

[dw93]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

[pbrower2a]

A realignment will happen... it is simply a matter of time, demographic change, cultural change, and the dying-off of some old constituencies that underpin the current alignment. The mass conversion of Presbyterians to born-again Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians swung the South from being a haven for Democrats to a haven for Republicans about as Carter was President.

Religious conversions can happen on a large scale. We can have an economic meltdown that undermines the political orthodoxy of the time. We can have a catastrophic war. Any of those portends a political implosion for leadership caught clueless in the debacle.   

[It’s so Joever]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

This is literally exactly what I think may happen as well.

[TodayJunior]

Mostly dead yes, but more bc of mostly uniform Democratic trends in suburban America, which cuts off any path of viability for the gop nationally.

[EastwoodS]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

When you can’t see we’re already in a Democratic realignment (that’s dying and getting weaker) and you just so want in your heart for every future party system to be democratic but that’s just not the way it works...
Atlas Dems really be like
The 7th: Democratic
8th: MEGA DEMOCRATIC 😍😍
The 9th: MEGA UBER FANTASTIC DEMOCRATIC🥰🥰😍

[DS0816]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

When you can’t see we’re already in a Democratic realignment (that’s dying and getting weaker) and you just so want in your heart for every future party system to be democratic but that’s just not the way it works...
Atlas Dems really be like
The 7th: Democratic
8th: MEGA DEMOCRATIC 😍😍
The 9th: MEGA UBER FANTASTIC DEMOCRATIC🥰🥰😍

This is a discussion site where there is at least one forum member who anxiously posts a topic thread asking respondents to predict the electoral map for the United States presidential election of, say, 2052.

[Non Swing Voter]

2000/2004 started the current realignment.  That's when the GOP went full moron with GWB and started losing younger suburban college whites.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think there are forces at work in this country that want to keep us polarized and this neuters massive swings and realignments of voting groups to such a large extent that it is nearly impossible for us to break out of the current holding pattern.

The main reason I think that this happens is the influence of donors/corporate media/consultants. These people form a symbiotic relationship with each other and the politicians and everything and everyone else becomes pawns in their chess game, the ultimate goal of which is to ensure equal division of the electorate through manipulation of culture war stuff on the right, and SJW stuff on the left and ensure they are always angry at the other side, perpetually never satisfied and thus always willing to drive their side to victory and get absolutely nothing in return (or nothing that costs them their precious money).

Because people are always locked in tribal warfare, the ability to break off a large chunk of the other guy's voters is very much impossible right now.

[Hope For A New Era]

Realigning elections do not need to be landslides. I assure you, 2020 was it. It may not seem like it now, but it will be clear in the future.

Think about it for a second, would 1980 have looked like a hugely consequential realignment at the time? Probably not:

"A Republican just won even more states eight years ago, so the size of the win isn't remarkable, and we still have the House. It's literally just 1952 again, a short-lived spike in Republican support after a Democratic president dramatically lost popularity when things started going badly."

- some Democrat in mid-November 1980, probably


To add to the "realignments don't need to be landslides" thing - 1896 isn't a landslide by current definitions, but it was seen as one at the time, also a time of very high polarization. In fact, 2020's popular vote margin is slightly larger (4.4 as opposed to 4.3).

So perhaps 2020 actually is a landslide, and we just need to adjust our ideas of what a "landslide" is to match the current state of things.

[dw93]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

When you can’t see we’re already in a Democratic realignment (that’s dying and getting weaker) and you just so want in your heart for every future party system to be democratic but that’s just not the way it works...
Atlas Dems really be like
The 7th: Democratic
8th: MEGA DEMOCRATIC 😍😍
The 9th: MEGA UBER FANTASTIC DEMOCRATIC🥰🥰😍

How are we in a Democratic alignment when Republicans for most of the last 25 years have had the House majority and a majority of the Governorships and state legislatures? Sure the Democrats have won the popular vote in all but one Presidential election in the last 30 years, but of four close Presidential elections of that time (2000,2004,2016,2020) the GOP won all but one, which suggests the GOP has at least a more solid floor of support than the Democrats have. Also, at least on kitchen table issues, the country of 1981-Present (the 2nd gilded age), was far more Conservative than the US of 1933-1980.

[DS0816]

…

So perhaps 2020 actually is a landslide, and we just need to adjust our ideas of what a "landslide" is to match the current state of things.

Of course.

For example:

Carrying 50 percent of the nation’s states counts as a landslide.

[President Johnson]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

That's indeed a realistic scenario.

Interesting this would mark the third time a Republican president that was defeated for reelection since the last Democrat (Carter) lost his bid for a second term. It's already remarkable that only Cleveland in 1888 and Carter in 1980 were Democratic presidents voted out of office since both Democrats and Republicans are the major parties. All other defeated presidents since 1860 were Republicans.

[Ferguson97]

2032 with a Democrat.

Trump wins a non-consecutive term in 2024 against Biden. Trump's VP beats Harris in 2028. A current unknown Democratic candidate beats Trump's VP in 2032, and is re-elected to a second term in 2036.

[LabourJersey]

Realignment elections happened when parties were big tents and when media was homogenous.

Cable news, educational polarization and demographic changes all reduce the change for a genuine realignment I think. I don't think we will see a period like 1969-1993 (where one party wins just one election in 24 years) for a while, to say nothing of the GOP dominance of 1861-1933.

[Skill and Chance]

At this point I'm gonna say 2032 with a Democrat, as I don't think polarization is gonna break enough for it to happen this decade. Gun to my head:

• In 2022, the GOP retakes the House in a ripple instead of a wave. The Democrats net a gain of a seat or two in the Senate
• In 2024, the Democrats (not sure if it'll be Biden or Harris) narrowly hold the White House, failing short of retaking the House, and narrowly losing the Senate
  
• 2026 is a near 2014 level GOP wave
• After six years of Gridlock, a Republican narrowly defeats Kamala Harris in 2028
• 2030 is the start of a realignment to the 7th party system. The Democrats retake the House and Senate, and have their strongest showing at the state and local level since 2008. 3 decades of Republican gerrymandering is undone after the 2030 census, and the playing field is finally level
• Due to a recession or foreign crisis, a Democrat defeats the Republican incumbent President by a 2020 PV margin and an EV win margin somewhere between 2008 and 1996.

When you can’t see we’re already in a Democratic realignment (that’s dying and getting weaker)

Not sure about this.  Feels like you are putting way too much weight on the presidential PV (it's pretty obvious to me that Bush could have won the PV in 2000 if he was actively competing for it, though it was clearly out of reach for Trump in 2016).  Dems are only 5/8 in actual presidential wins since 1992 and they have controlled each chamber of congress less than half of the time since then.  They only had the majority of governors for like 3 years out of 30.  That's not particularly impressive.

Looking beyond the presidential PV, I like the Republican realignment that started in 1994 story better. 

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

[Frodo]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

SRD, 'conservative cultural identity' is subjective -so just what do you mean by it?  Most Americans support gay marriage, don't want Roe vs Wade overturned (though they would like to have abortion regulated along European lines), generally agree we haven't gone far enough on gender equality, and view immigrants positively.  Unless you are referring to gun control.    

[Skill and Chance]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

There is some truth to this.  There was a point in the summer of 2017 when Trump was getting ready to call for raising the top tax bracket and make peace with Obamacare, but then he backed off at the last minute.  Had he gone through with that and later embraced an earlier and stricter COVID response (as many of the same populist voices called for), it would have been a realignment and he easily wins reelection.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

There is some truth to this.  There was a point in the summer of 2017 when Trump was getting ready to call for raising the top tax bracket and make peace with Obamacare, but then he backed off at the last minute.  Had he gone through with that and later embraced an earlier and stricter COVID response (as many of the same populist voices called for), it would have been a realignment and he easily wins reelection.

TRUE

[LAB-LIB]

For a second, I thought this said "Is replacement theory dead". In all honesty, and not to be a wet blanket, most of these predictions are way too specific and we really can't tell what a realigning election is until a few decades after when the effects have set in. Same with the party systems, we likely won't know when the Sixth Party System ended until the Seventh Party System does, and even then, there will always be the usual debates

Keep these predictions coming though, they're interesting.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

There is some truth to this.  There was a point in the summer of 2017 when Trump was getting ready to call for raising the top tax bracket and make peace with Obamacare, but then he backed off at the last minute.  Had he gone through with that and later embraced an earlier and stricter COVID response (as many of the same populist voices called for), it would have been a realignment and he easily wins reelection.

I agree completely. His promises to do this are exactly why I voted for him in 2016 despite his many MANY faults, but in the end, the guy didn't deliver. His change of direction on this neatly coincides with Bannon leaving the white house.

[Person Man]

Whichever party successfully marries conservative cultural identity with socialized medicine, bank regulation, CEO salary regulation, and a platform of labor/manufacturing revitalization will win in a monumental landslide for decades... We're talking on the level of the Democrats from 1932-53 or the Republicans from 1968-1992.

SRD, 'conservative cultural identity' is subjective -so just what do you mean by it?  Most Americans support gay marriage, don't want Roe vs Wade overturned (though they would like to have abortion regulated along European lines), generally agree we haven't gone far enough on gender equality, and view immigrants positively.  Unless you are referring to gun control.    

There’s always new issues, though. With Roe gone, it will make being pro-life harder as you actually got to detail, pass, and enforce actual policies.