If the pandemic never happened, which of these occur?

[H. Ross Peron]

NOTA should be an option though I think Perdue would do better in Georgia absent Covid. Simply put, Covid benefited Trump more than it hurt him though his incompetence in the later stages of the pandemic eroded much of (though not all of) his advantage. In elections around the world, we saw a similar boost to governing parties though generally their greater competence led to them easily winning reelection. Overall, white college educated voters were already moving towards the Democrats pre-Covid while nonwhite working-class voters showed much less of a pro-Trump swing. Anger at lockdowns combined with Trump's stimulus definitely aided Trump to a large degree with working-class voters. George Floyd's murder may or may not happen, but even if it does, riots may be smaller without the additional stress induced by Covid-related conditions and the resulting bump in the murder rate would similarly be muted due to a large part of the criminal element being in school or at service-sector jobs instead of bored at home and ending up walking the streets which increase the likelihood of hostile contact resulting in deadly violence. Absent Covid, the smaller nonwhite pro-incumbent swing combined with continuing white college defections would aid Democrats. I doubt Biden would win Florida still but margins would be much narrower and he might have won North Carolina in addition to all the states he did in reality.