If the pandemic never happened, which of these occur?
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  If the pandemic never happened, which of these occur?
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Poll
Question: Which of the following events occur in a world without the pandemic?
#1
Trump is re-elected
 
#2
Republicans win back the house
 
#3
David Perdue avoids a runoff
 
#4
Gary Peters loses re-election
 
#5
Martha McSally wins
 
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Total Voters: 60

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Author Topic: If the pandemic never happened, which of these occur?  (Read 1601 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: October 03, 2021, 12:53:50 AM »

If the pandemic never happened which of the listed scenarios happen?
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2021, 01:55:25 AM »

Trump is re-elected as I think he wins GA AZ WI for sure and Trump gets re-elected with 269 . PA is super close and it depends on whether Biden got a home state bump here or not cause if he doesn’t then Trump wins 289-249 and I think republicans do end up taking the House .


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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2021, 06:11:10 AM »

All of them, probably. Biden got ridiculously lucky.
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Spark
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2021, 08:25:04 AM »

Trump re-elected for sure, and Perdue avoids the run-off.
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John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2021, 08:27:01 AM »

I’m pretty sure McSally wasn’t winning no matter what. Everything else is possible. I think a much smaller Biden win could’ve still happened, but Trump would be favored. Perdue wins. Peters would’ve been toast.
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dw93
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2021, 10:20:15 AM »

Trump wins with this map (PA, MI, and NV in that order being the closest states):



Perdue also avoids a runoff, thus the GOP keeps the Senate but I think the Democrats still keep the house and Peters, thanks to Biden flipping MI, holds on by the skin of his teeth.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2021, 10:41:00 AM »

Everything goes R except Arizona, McSally included.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2021, 11:59:52 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2021, 12:04:06 PM by Mr.Phips »

I feel like given how close everything was and straight ticket voting, either all of these things would have happened or none of the would have happened.  If the environment was good enough for Republicans for Trump to be competitive or favored, I think Republicans would have better targeted in the House and would have won some of the very close Dem held seats (MI-08, PA-17, VA-07, IA-03, IL-14, WI-03, NJ-07).
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2021, 12:13:23 PM »

I’m pretty sure McSally wasn’t winning no matter what. Everything else is possible. I think a much smaller Biden win could’ve still happened, but Trump would be favored. Perdue wins. Peters would’ve been toast.
Everything goes R except Arizona, McSally included.
Why is McSally losing guranteed? She got 49% of the voter. Had Trump been re-elected, she probably wins

There was only about 20k Trump-Kelly voters.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2021, 09:23:28 PM »

When is the last time an incumbent President’s party won back the House?
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dw93
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2021, 10:39:01 PM »

When is the last time an incumbent President’s party won back the House?

1948 I believe.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2021, 11:23:53 PM »

4/5. McSally was unpopular even before the pandemic started. It would be our generation's version of 1948.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2021, 10:31:40 AM »

4/5. McSally was unpopular even before the pandemic started. It would be our generation's version of 1948.

Would it be? Honestly, I don't think that we'll ever see such a grand upset as 1948 ever again, or at least anytime soon, because a modern-day version of 1948 for Trump would've been akin to Trump losing TX & FL - just as Truman lost several Southern states that were still traditionally Safe D at the time - yet still managing to win by maintaining the rest of his 2016 map all the while somehow flipping MN, VA, & CO.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2021, 01:41:40 PM »

4/5. McSally was unpopular even before the pandemic started. It would be our generation's version of 1948.

Would it be? Honestly, I don't think that we'll ever see such a grand upset as 1948 ever again, or at least anytime soon, because a modern-day version of 1948 for Trump would've been akin to Trump losing TX & FL - just as Truman lost several Southern states that were still traditionally Safe D at the time - yet still managing to win by maintaining the rest of his 2016 map all the while somehow flipping MN, VA, & CO.

That would've been the showdown but who would've been the Thurmond of this timeline? Maybe a Never-Trumper like Jeb! or Kasich who manages to split the vote in those two states and might carry a few others.
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lc1990
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2021, 01:27:59 AM »

Why do so many of you think Trump would be re-elected without covid
He was losing in every 2019 poll to Biden
Maaaybe another 2016 Miracle but JB is not HC and I mean that in a good way.
I'd posit that AZ going Blue had little to do with Covid and more to do with McCain.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2021, 02:06:03 AM »

I genuinely believe the outcome would have been exactly the same. As far as I can tell, the pandemic didn't change anything other than political energy level, and it affected that equally on both sides.

Polls from early 2020, before the D primaries and the pandemic got going, predicted the actual result well. They pointed toward roughly D+4 nationally, and toward D wins in WI, MI, PA, and AZ. Georgia is the only real surprise of the election.

Perhaps there would have been a bit more difference between presidential and downballot results. All 2020 seemed to do was harden partisanship even more.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2021, 11:12:53 AM »

Trump wins with this map (PA, MI, and NV in that order being the closest states):



Perdue also avoids a runoff, thus the GOP keeps the Senate but I think the Democrats still keep the house and Peters, thanks to Biden flipping MI, holds on by the skin of his teeth.


It's very unreasonable to have NE02 back Trump when it supported Biden by 6.6% in real life if you have MI going blue when it supported Biden by just 2.8% in real life. Much more likely that MI stays red (non-Atlas) and NE02 flips Democratic.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2021, 11:36:47 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2021, 11:41:32 AM by Anaphylactic-Statism »

This is something that will probably be debated by historians for a long time. If Biden's support dropped just enough with fewer people suffering from the impact of COVID, we could have had this map:



A few points, though:

  • Some economists at the time were saying that we were probably headed for a recession in 2020, but not a particularly severe one- not sure how much those statements were motivated by partisan interest, and we would need some economics people to hash out the factors behind a potential COVIDless recession, but it's something to consider.
  • Tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran might have continued at the level they were immediately before COVID without the pandemic to force leaders to turn inward, and there would have been a higher chance of escalation to a full-scale war.
  • Democrat primaries aren't cancelled or rescheduled because of COVID. This may impact the results.
  • Protests against police brutality and racism were probably going to happen in Summer 2020 regardless of COVID with the other killings that happened while people were getting more politically conscious heading into election season, although the George Floyd incident itself is probably butterflied away.
  • Turnout is probably still higher than usual because of how polarizing the Trump presidency was, but still not as high as it was without the issue of COVID.
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CEO Mindset
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2021, 03:19:21 PM »

witihout mailin voting trump wins.
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BabyAlligator
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2021, 06:12:05 PM »

I even think that if there was no recession and no pandemic, Trump would have won the popular by half a point or even one. Trump would have won Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2021, 12:08:04 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 12:13:46 AM by H. Ross Peron »

NOTA should be an option though I think Perdue would do better in Georgia absent Covid. Simply put, Covid benefited Trump more than it hurt him though his incompetence in the later stages of the pandemic eroded much of (though not all of) his advantage. In elections around the world, we saw a similar boost to governing parties though generally their greater competence led to them easily winning reelection. Overall, white college educated voters were already moving towards the Democrats pre-Covid while nonwhite working-class voters showed much less of a pro-Trump swing. Anger at lockdowns combined with Trump's stimulus definitely aided Trump to a large degree with working-class voters. George Floyd's murder may or may not happen, but even if it does, riots may be smaller without the additional stress induced by Covid-related conditions and the resulting bump in the murder rate would similarly be muted due to a large part of the criminal element being in school or at service-sector jobs instead of bored at home and ending up walking the streets which increase the likelihood of hostile contact resulting in deadly violence. Absent Covid, the smaller nonwhite pro-incumbent swing combined with continuing white college defections would aid Democrats. I doubt Biden would win Florida still but margins would be much narrower and he might have won North Carolina in addition to all the states he did in reality.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2021, 12:57:04 AM »

This is something that will probably be debated by historians for a long time. If Biden's support dropped just enough with fewer people suffering from the impact of COVID, we could have had this map:



A few points, though:

  • Some economists at the time were saying that we were probably headed for a recession in 2020, but not a particularly severe one- not sure how much those statements were motivated by partisan interest, and we would need some economics people to hash out the factors behind a potential COVIDless recession, but it's something to consider.
  • Tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran might have continued at the level they were immediately before COVID without the pandemic to force leaders to turn inward, and there would have been a higher chance of escalation to a full-scale war.
  • Democrat primaries aren't cancelled or rescheduled because of COVID. This may impact the results.
  • Protests against police brutality and racism were probably going to happen in Summer 2020 regardless of COVID with the other killings that happened while people were getting more politically conscious heading into election season, although the George Floyd incident itself is probably butterflied away.
  • Turnout is probably still higher than usual because of how polarizing the Trump presidency was, but still not as high as it was without the issue of COVID.

I actually disagree with that.  Let alone the possibility of the butterfly effect making the George Floyd situation never happen, American society was ready to erupt in a unique way due to the stresses of the previous few months.  Even if George Floyd still died, I don't think it would have sparked as massive of protests in a non-covid world.  It would probably have been more like the situation in Baltimore in 2015.
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