Trump wins with this map (PA, MI, and NV in that order being the closest states):
Perdue also avoids a runoff, thus the GOP keeps the Senate but I think the Democrats still keep the house and Peters, thanks to Biden flipping MI, holds on by the skin of his teeth.
It's very unreasonable to have NE02 back Trump when it supported Biden by 6.6% in real life if you have MI going blue when it supported Biden by just 2.8% in real life. Much more likely that MI stays red (non-Atlas) and NE02 flips Democratic.