4/5. McSally was unpopular even before the pandemic started. It would be our generation's version of 1948.
Would it be? Honestly, I don't think that we'll ever see such a grand upset as 1948 ever again, or at least anytime soon, because a modern-day version of 1948 for Trump would've been akin to Trump losing TX & FL - just as Truman lost several Southern states that were still traditionally Safe D at the time - yet still managing to win by maintaining the rest of his 2016 map all the while somehow flipping MN, VA, & CO.
That would've been the showdown but who would've been the Thurmond of this timeline? Maybe a Never-Trumper like Jeb! or Kasich who manages to split the vote in those two states and might carry a few others.
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