If the pandemic never happened, which of these occur?

[Hope For A New Era]

I genuinely believe the outcome would have been exactly the same. As far as I can tell, the pandemic didn't change anything other than political energy level, and it affected that equally on both sides.

Polls from early 2020, before the D primaries and the pandemic got going, predicted the actual result well. They pointed toward roughly D+4 nationally, and toward D wins in WI, MI, PA, and AZ. Georgia is the only real surprise of the election.

Perhaps there would have been a bit more difference between presidential and downballot results. All 2020 seemed to do was harden partisanship even more.