This is something that will probably be debated by historians for a long time. If Biden's support dropped just enough with fewer people suffering from the impact of COVID, we could have had this map:
A few points, though:
- Some economists at the time were saying that we were probably headed for a recession in 2020, but not a particularly severe one- not sure how much those statements were motivated by partisan interest, and we would need some economics people to hash out the factors behind a potential COVIDless recession, but it's something to consider.
- Tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran might have continued at the level they were immediately before COVID without the pandemic to force leaders to turn inward, and there would have been a higher chance of escalation to a full-scale war.
- Democrat primaries aren't cancelled or rescheduled because of COVID. This may impact the results.
- Protests against police brutality and racism were probably going to happen in Summer 2020 regardless of COVID with the other killings that happened while people were getting more politically conscious heading into election season, although the George Floyd incident itself is probably butterflied away.
- Turnout is probably still higher than usual because of how polarizing the Trump presidency was, but still not as high as it was without the issue of COVID.
I actually disagree with that. Let alone the possibility of the butterfly effect making the George Floyd situation never happen, American society was ready to erupt in a unique way due to the stresses of the previous few months. Even if George Floyd still died, I don't think it would have sparked as massive of protests in a non-covid world. It would probably have been more like the situation in Baltimore in 2015.
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