AZ-SEN (OHPI): Kelly up

[wbrocks67]

Kelly (D) 44%
McGuire (R) 37%

Kelly (D) 43%
Brnovich (R) 39%

Kelly (D) 44%
Lamon (R) 40%

Kelly (D) 44%
Masters (R) 35%

R primary-
Brnovich 27%
McGuire 14%
Masters 6%
Lamon 3%
Unsure 51%

Kelly fav: 47/43
Sinema fav: 46/39

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/AZPOP/210907_AZPOP/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20(AZPOP)%20Senate%20Toplines%20and%20Selected%20Crosstabs.pdf?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=165117962&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8NFAlA15WSo_pkoZ31G8eMZ0K-fwK5DXjl5BjqCifwgamw_JCtptcvRVsq92JO0PreOucsl16BziDmHf9TOieJJOpLjGU1zaKldhnta7klx8nf7Oc&utm_content=165117962&utm_source=hs_email

[SnowLabrador]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Less than 1,000 sample size, unknown/no name poster, and 20%+ undecideds?

Yeah whatever you say buddy

[SnowLabrador]

Less than 1,000 sample size, unknown/no name poster, and 20%+ undecideds?

Yeah whatever you say buddy

This reminds me of the early IN-SEN 2018 general election polls that had Joe Donnelly up against Messer and Rokita. We all know how that race turned out, don't we?

[Spectator]

Less than 1,000 sample size, unknown/no name poster, and 20%+ undecideds?

Yeah whatever you say buddy

This reminds me of the early IN-SEN 2018 general election polls that had Joe Donnelly up against Messer and Rokita. We all know how that race turned out, don't we?

Are you really comparing Arizona to a state that is 15 points redder than it? I couldn’t care less about who wins this race next year, but your posts are just insufferable to read sometimes.

[Gallatine]

Less than 1,000 sample size, unknown/no name poster, and 20%+ undecideds?

Yeah whatever you say buddy

OHPI aren't exactly no-name for Arizona, usually when I see an Arizona poll it's them.
For reference their final 2020 polls were Biden +3 and Kelly +5 and their final 2018 poll was McSally +1, so I wouldn't say they're horrible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly will win

[2016]

Arizona is another State that will likely go with the National Environment. If Bidens Job Approval is underwater on E-Day 2022 Kelly will lose.

[TodayJunior]

Arizona says color me blue for 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

I’d say that Kelly is the Dems’ most vulnerable senate incumbent now.

[President Johnson]

Too early, too many undecideds. Tossup/tilt Kelly.

[MargieCat]

I think it's Tilt-D if Brnovich is the nominee.

Lean-D if its anyone else

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Toss-up/Tilt D race at the moment, it's still a long shot

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R if Brnovich is the Republican nominee.

Likely D if any of the other candidates are nominated.

Closest comparison is probably the 2010 Senate race in Delaware.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R if Brnovich is the Republican nominee.

Likely D if any of the candidates are nominated.

Closest comparison is probably the 2010 Senate race in Delaware.

Lol Brnvich is overrated he is losing

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really hope Kelly gets re-elected and sends a message to Sinema about their state.

[progressive85]

My Space Dude is Alive!!!  Go Kelly, go!!!

[MT Treasurer]

Still the most likely D->R flip.

Lean R if Brnovich is the Republican nominee.

Likely D if any of the other candidates are nominated.

Closest comparison is probably the 2010 Senate race in Delaware.

Delaware 2008 was a D+25 state (D+18 relative to the nation) whereas Arizona 2020 was a D+.3 state (R+4 relative to the nation), but sure, it will be a DE-SEN 2010 redux once the almighty Mark Kelly highlights his opponent's CONSERVATIVE voting record/ideological positions.

[Hope For A New Era]

I’d say that Kelly is the Dems’ most vulnerable senate incumbent now.

Still the most likely D->R flip.

Did I miss a memo about Sununu announcing he wouldn't run, or something?

I still see that as by far the most likely flip. I fear the Northeast becoming a Republican secret weapon against polarization.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still the most likely D->R flip.

Lean R if Brnovich is the Republican nominee.

Likely D if any of the other candidates are nominated.

Closest comparison is probably the 2010 Senate race in Delaware.

Delaware 2008 was a D+25 state (D+18 relative to the nation) whereas Arizona 2020 was a D+.3 state (R+4 relative to the nation), but sure, it will be a DE-SEN 2010 redux once the almighty Mark Kelly highlights his opponent's CONSERVATIVE voting record/ideological positions.

No it's not GA is, due to the Runoff

You really listen to New York Express he said AOC was gonna be Prez in 2033
.
Rubio, and Josh Mandel are only up 4

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All Kelly has to do is throw money at sh**t and he's fine.

It is worrying that this race doesn't meet the 50% margin required to avoid Atlas doomers calling Kelly DOA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sinema with better approvals than Kelly? Say it ain't so!

[Xing]

Kelly needs to go to the debates in his AstroNUT suit to guarantee an AstroNUT map.

[KaiserDave]

He's still very much in peril.

[Senator Incitatus]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

Don't think you can say anything other than Toss-Up this early, but yes, the headline here is Kelly at 44%.