Was the Comey letter the biggest October surprise in history?

[Pericles]

I was just thinking of October surprises and it's hard to think of one that had a bigger impact (by which I mean swinging the election outcome) and was more of a surprise. The only other October surprises that I can think of that may have swung the election outcome are the 2004 Bin Laden tape, maybe the 2020 Covid diagnosis (a much earlier surprise but votes were cast earlier), and the 1980 debate (I doubt Carter would have actually won regardless though). Two were more predictable at least and it's not that clear that they changed the outcome. The only other competitor is the failure of the 1968 peace negotiations, but the negotiations might have failed anyway and 1968 wasn't as close as 2016. With 2016, it's undeniable that the Comey letter changed the outcome because Clinton's lead shrank by a lot more than her losing margin in the key states, the email issue clearly became a lot more salient and the large number of undecideds broke for Trump. So that's a surprising and sad thought.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's COVID-positive diagnosis is definitely up there now. Though it's hard to discern how much it may, or may not have, affected the election.

But in hindsight, it's hard to say if the Comey Letter even actually affected the 2016 election anymore.

[darklordoftech]

I’d argue that “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” in 1884 and Bush’s DUI in 2000 were also “October surprises” that changed the results of an election.

[Pericles]

I’d argue that “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” in 1884 and Bush’s DUI in 2000 were also “October surprises” that changed the results of an election.

Bush won anyway so his DUI doesn't matter, 1884 maybe but that's really long ago. One I did think of was Ford's Soviet domination gaffe in 1976, but that's both not as much of a surprise as something random like the letter and far less obvious that it changed the outcome (1976 also not being as close as 2016).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I still don't see how the Bin Laden tape could've helped Bush? It just reminded people that Bush hadn't gotten him...

[Matty]

lmao at an october surprise being possible in 1884

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, South Vietnam walking out of the peace talks and the Bush DWI weren't in October. They were in November.

[BigVic]

GFC in 2008 was one. It was a close race before the Lehmann Bros collapsed

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Trump Access Hollywood tape was devastating as well, but it was leaked too early. The Access Hollywood tape was dropped in early October and most people had forgotten about it after a few weeks.

If the Comey letter was released in early October and the Access Hollywood tape was dropped in late October, Hillary would have won in a landslide. The Gore campaign leaked the Bush DUI story a few days before the election, which was perfect timing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Trump Access Hollywood tape was devastating as well, but it was leaked too early. The Access Hollywood tape was dropped in early October and most people had forgotten about it after a few weeks.

If the Comey letter was released in early October and the Access Hollywood tape was dropped in late October, Hillary would have won in a landslide. The Gore campaign leaked the Bush DUI story a few days before the election, which was perfect timing.

100% agreed. Politics is like comedy-timing is everything, especially in these days when the media cycle moves so fast and Americans' attention spans are increasingly declining.

2016, turning out as it did, taught this lesson very well.

[Schiff for Senate]

I’d argue that “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” in 1884 and Bush’s DUI in 2000 were also “October surprises” that changed the results of an election.

Yeah, when I saw this thread I immediately thought of the 1884 comment that cost Blaine NY and the election. Also I love how you included 2000 even though Bush officially won (note that I'm not arguing with you - it's pretty possible Gore actually won FL, and he won the popular vote regardless) and became president.

[Non Swing Voter]

yes because it came from inside the Gov.