Can the Inland Empire results of the CA recall election tell us anything about NV, or no?

[Cyrusman]

Do you think the way the inland empire voted in the California recall election can give us hints or queues on how Nevada will vote next year in both of their elections or no?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think the recall means too much either way for 2022, except as a bit of proof of how high-turnout the D coalition can be when it turns out.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't think there's much to analyze until we see how the cities voted.

If this fabled Hispanic realignment ended up happening in the IE, then some of the results in the minority-majority cities would show that (Such as Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Perris, etc.)

But at the same time, if youth & minority turnout really did crater as ballot tracking data seemed to show, it wouldn't surprise me if younger or minority-majority cities  (Such as the aforementioned cities) had really low turnout while older & whiter cities (Temecula, Palm Springs, Hemet, etc.) had turnout at or near normal levels. In which case, there could still be some closer margins in minority-majority cities but is that really a realignment or just further proof that minorities & young people in California hate voting in non-presidential elections (Which I could've told you years ago)?

I'd wait until San Bernardino & Riverside are done counting ballots & they release their SoV's. But as far as surface-level, this is just how the IE usually votes in non-presidential elections. Given the whiter electorate & average turnout in both counties, I'm honestly surprised the IE didn't support recall more.

[DrScholl]

If you consider that the Inland Empire voted the same this year as it did in 2018 then it's reasonable to assume that Democrats would do about the same in Nevada as they did in 2018.

[THG]

The Inland Empire actually didn’t shift too much.

It was the Central Valley that did- literally look at Staninlaus, Merced, Fresno, and even San Joqauin compared to normal.

[Roll Roons]

The Inland Empire actually didn’t shift too much.

It was the Central Valley that did- literally look at Staninlaus, Merced, Fresno, and even San Joqauin compared to normal.

Interesting. I wonder what the numbers look like in CA-10 and CA-21.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't think there's much to analyze until we see how the cities voted.

If this fabled Hispanic realignment ended up happening in the IE, then some of the results in the minority-majority cities would show that (Such as Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Perris, etc.)

But at the same time, if youth & minority turnout really did crater as ballot tracking data seemed to show, it wouldn't surprise me if younger or minority-majority cities  (Such as the aforementioned cities) had really low turnout while older & whiter cities (Temecula, Palm Springs, Hemet, etc.) had turnout at or near normal levels. In which case, there could still be some closer margins in minority-majority cities but is that really a realignment or just further proof that minorities & young people in California hate voting in non-presidential elections (Which I could've told you years ago)?

I'd wait until San Bernardino & Riverside are done counting ballots & they release their SoV's. But as far as surface-level, this is just how the IE usually votes in non-presidential elections. Given the whiter electorate & average turnout in both counties, I'm honestly surprised the IE didn't support recall more.

Cities largely voted as they did in 2018 & 2020. Banning, Corona, Hemet, La Quinta & Lake Elsinore were all Biden/Cox cities that supported recall. The only Biden/Cox city to vote against the recall was Palm Desert.



                                 Yes% - No%    N-Y margin%  
Palm Springs               20.1  -  79.9               +59.7
Coachella                    20.5   -  79.5               +59.0
Cathedral City             28.0   -  72.0               +44.0
Perris                          31.6   -  68.4               +36.9
Moreno Valley             35.6   -  64.4               +28.7
Desert Hot Springs      38.0  -  62.0               +24.1
Rancho Mirage            39.7   -  60.3               +20.7
Indio                           41.9   -  58.1               +16.2
Riverside                     45.6   -  54.4                 +8.8
Palm Desert                46.5   -  53.5                 +7.0
Jurupa Valley              47.4   -  52.6                 +5.1
San Jacinto                 48.8   -  51.2                 +2.3
Eastvale                      49.9   -  50.1                 +0.2
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    50.5  -  49.5                  -1.0
La Quinta                    51.4   -  48.6                  -2.9
Banning                      51.8   -  48.2                  -3.7
Hemet                         52.4   -  47.6                  -4.9
Corona                        52.6   -  47.4                  -5.2
Beaumont                   54.3   -  45.7                  -8.7
Lake Elsinore              54.7   -  45.3                  -9.4
Unincorporated Area  57.1   -  42.9                -14.2
Temecula                    59.1   -  40.9                -18.2
Menifee                       59.4   -  40.6                -18.8
Blythe                         59.8   -  40.2                -19.6
Indian Wells               59.9   -  40.1                -19.8
Murrieta                      62.1   -  37.9                -24.1
Wildomar                    65.6   -  34.4                -31.2
Calimesa                     67.2   -  32.8                -34.4
Norco                          74.0   -  26.0                -47.9
Canyon Lake               79.5   -  20.5                -58.9

CD-36                          45.1   - 54.9                 +9.9
CD-41                          42.5   - 57.5               +15.0
CD-42                          59.0   - 41.0                -18.0



2021 N-Y - 2018 D-R SWING
Indian Wells                D+16.1
Rancho Mirage             D+14.1
Palm Desert                   D+8.7
Palm Springs                 D+7.4
La Quinta                       D+7.1
Hemet                            D+6.5
Menifee                          D+4.7
Banning                         D+4.6
Cathedral City                D+4.2
Beaumont                      D+2.2
Temecula                       D+1.6
Calimesa                        D+1.5
Murrieta                         D+1.5
Unincorporated Area     D+1.0
Indio                              D+0.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY      R+0.7
Moreno Valley                R+1.4
Corona                           R+1.6
Lake Elsinore                 R+1.8
Wildomar                       R+2.0
Desert Hot Springs        R+2.9
Riverside                       R+3.5
San Jacinto                   R+4.1
Norco                            R+5.2
Canyon Lake                 R+5.8
Eastvale                        R+7.1
Perris                            R+8.3
Jurupa Valley                R+8.3
Coachella                      R+9.5
Blythe                         R+13.7


CD-36                          D+3.5
CD-41                          R+3.8
CD-42                          R+0.4


2021 - 2018 TURNOUT (+ Percentage of 18+ year old Hispanics & 18+ year old Non-Hispanic Whites)
                               2021% - 2018%     DIFFERENCE%      HISPANIC%   WHITE%

Indian Wells                77.9  -      83.4                       -5.4                     5.4           89.1
Rancho Mirage             76.8  -     80.7                        -3.9                   11.2           79.5
Canyon Lake                72.4  -     72.0                       +0.5                   12.9           77.7
Palm Springs               71.1  -     76.3                        -5.3                   20.9           66.9
Calimesa                      67.9  -     71.0                        -3.1                   25.3           65.1
Palm Desert                 67.2  -     74.4                        -7.2                   22.0           68.2
Norco                           66.4  -     70.5                        -4.1                   33.4           51.7
La Quinta                     66.1  -     72.4                        -6.3                   29.4           61.5
Temecula                     62.9  -     68.4                        -5.5                   25.1           52.2
Murrieta                       61.9  -     66.6                        -4.8                   27.6           49.6
Menifee                        60.6  -     66.7                        -6.1                   34.0           47.6
Beaumont                    60.3  -     66.6                        -6.3                   40.4           42.7
Banning                       59.3  -     66.5                        -7.2                   40.4           42.7
Wildomar                     58.1   -    63.4                        -5.3                   37.3           47.0
Corona                         57.0   -    64.0                        -7.0                   43.3           34.3
Eastvale                       56.7   -    62.5                        -5.8                   35.4           20.5
Cathedral City              56.1   -    62.1                        -6.1                   54.4          33.9
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    55.7  -     62.5                       -6.8                    45.6          44.1
Unincorporated Area   55.2   -    64.5                        -9.3
Indio                            53.6   -    61.4                        -7.8                   64.3          28.6
Riverside                     53.3   -    60.6                         -7.3                   50.6          30.9
Lake Elsinore               52.4   -    59.6                        -7.2                    47.4          33.2
Hemet                          51.9   -    59.7                        -7.8                    40.4          42.4
Jurupa Valley               46.7   -    56.8                      -10.0                    66.9          21.1
Blythe                          46.1   -    58.9                      -12.8                    38.6           39.4
San Jacinto                  44.5   -    53.1                        -8.6                    57.4           26.1
Moreno Valley              43.6   -    51.4                       -7.9                     58.2           15.4
Desert Hot Springs      42.6  -     51.1                       -8.5                      56.0           30.0
Perris                          37.0   -    46.0                        -9.0                      73.7             9.2
Coachella                    34.1   -    43.8                        -9.7                      96.2             2.1

[Devils30]

The Inland Empire actually didn’t shift too much.

It was the Central Valley that did- literally look at Staninlaus, Merced, Fresno, and even San Joqauin compared to normal.

Interesting. I wonder what the numbers look like in CA-10 and CA-21.

CA-10 might be a top GOP flip opportunity even if 25 and 39 flip the other way. Of course with redistricting it's all pointless to use the current maps but I doubt 10 changes much.

GOP is improving with rural Hispanics but to win NV, AZ they probably need another round of gains with urban Hispanics as Vegas and Phoenix dominate both states.