Echelon Insights: Republican Primary: DeSantis leads Trumpless field, 60% support Trump in Primary

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017c-1877-d47e-ab7e-9c77c0b50000

If the 2024 Republican presidential primaries were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you
vote?

Definitely/Probably Donald Trump 59%
Definitely/Probably a Different Republican Candidate 32%
Unsure 9%

If Donald Trump does NOT seek the Republican nomination for President in 2024 and the presidential primaries were being
held today, for whom would you vote?

Ron DeSantis 22%
Mike Pence 15%
Donald Trump Jr. 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Nikki Haley 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Marco Rubio 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Larry Hogan 2%
Tom Cotton 2%
Tim Scott 2%
Larry Hogan 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Kirsti Noem 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Chris Christie 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene <1%
Greg Abbott <1%
Ben Sasse 0%
Someone Else 3%

[President Johnson]

Kinda surprising Pence is even second place, though that's certainly attributed to name rec. Should he run in a Trumpless primary, the MAGA people will definitely make sure his candidacy isn't going anywhere as he couldn't overturn an election he didn't have the authority to do so.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs…

men: DeSantis +12% over Pence
women: DeSantis +3% over Pence
age 18-29: Cruz +2% over Trump Jr.
age 30-39: DeSantis +4% over Pence
age 40-49: DeSantis +4% over Trump Jr.
age 50-64: DeSantis/Pence tie
age 65+: DeSantis +24% over Haley/Pence
urban: Pence +1% over Cruz/DeSantis
suburban: DeSantis +14% over Pence
rural: Desantis +2% over Pence
Midwest: DeSantis +18% over Pence
Northeast: DeSantis +7% over Pence
South: DeSantis +8% over Pence/Trump Jr.
West: Pence +3% over DeSantis

So, DeSantis is strongest with men over age 65 in the suburbs.  He does poorly with youngs, as Ted Cruz leads among GOP primary voters under age 30 (though of course there aren’t many of them).  And Pence has a 1 point lead over DeSantis among GOP primary voters in urban areas (though of course there aren’t many there, compared to suburban and rural areas).

Also interestingly, Pence being strongest against DeSantis in the West is consistent with the crosstabs from this Emerson poll from a few weeks ago:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=461728.msg8233991#msg8233991

And finally, a fun look at the small N crosstabs for racial minorities in this poll:

10 black Republicans in this poll:

2 support Carlson, 2 support DeSantis, 1 supports Haley, 1 supports Romney, 1 supports Cruz, 1 supports Tim Scott, and 2 are undecided.

29 Hispanic Republicans in this poll:

7 support Pence, 4 support Romney, 3 support Trump Jr., 2 support Pompeo, and 13 are undecided.

11 Asians and Pacific Islander Republicans in this poll:

4 support Pence, 2 support DeSantis, and 5 are undecided.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is a remarkable consistency of Trump at or just below 60% in the polls. Take that for what it is worth.