Why Is VA-01 about to be looking blue?

[thebeloitmoderate]

Congressman Whitman represents this district and it has Westmoreland county birthplace of George Washington but why is the district about to be blue even though both he and Trump won that district albeit narrower than Romney/Trump '16?

[BoiseBoy]

I doubt VA-01 will go blue soon. We will need to wait and see how it turns out in 2022 with redistricting.

[Pink Panther]

His district goes into a good chunk of Prince William's County, along with having Stafford County and Fredericksburg.

[Roll Roons]

DC exurbia is spreading into the northern part of it.

[Nyvin]

Prince William, Stafford, Frederickburg

Those parts are actually really close to half the district.

[Non Swing Voter]

You ever see the movie IT?

NOVA is like the Clown in IT and Virginia GOP Congressmen are like the kids.  Sooner or later the clown will come for them.

That's why.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Gerrymandering results in this District taking way more of Prince William County than it should, moving it to the left.

[HillGoose]

will eiffel 65 be performing there to mark the occasion

[Non Swing Voter]

Gerrymandering results in this District taking way more of Prince William County than it should, moving it to the left.

Not just that.  Pretty much everything going from the DC area to Richmond in the vicinity of I95 is trending Dem, which appears to be the bulk of that district.  At least the populated parts.

[vitoNova]

Fredericksburg is a pretty cool college town, and one of VA's best kept secrets.  (lived there for 3 years)

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Even Hanover County is swinging due to Richmond exurbs. Basically the red parts of the district are the Northern Neck and the Middle Peninsula, but that's boxed by NoVA from the Northwest, Richmond in the Southwest, and Hampton Roads in the South. The Hampton Roads portion is worth mentioning too - Biden flipped James City County and the district used to include Williamsburg and parts of York. The whole area is growing due to HRO/RVA creep, retirees, the universities in the area, and federal labs.

Wittman is in no danger though, no matter how the map is drawn. His 2020 challenger didn't even win a majority of the precincts in Prince William the number of precincts South of Fredericksburg that Wittman lost could be counted on one hand.

[slothdem]

Even Hanover County is swinging due to Richmond exurbs. Basically the red parts of the district are the Northern Neck and the Middle Peninsula, but that's boxed by NoVA from the Northwest, Richmond in the Southwest, and Hampton Roads in the South. The Hampton Roads portion is worth mentioning too - Biden flipped James City County and the district used to include Williamsburg and parts of York. The whole area is growing due to HRO/RVA creep, retirees, the universities in the area, and federal labs.

Wittman is in no danger though, no matter how the map is drawn. His 2020 challenger didn't even win a majority of the precincts in Prince William the number of precincts South of Fredericksburg that Wittman lost could be counted on one hand.

The district is the second fastest growing in the state after VA-10, and will become bluer for two reasons: (1) it will almost certainly lose Hanover to the 7th and (2) it will take on a slightly bigger share of PWC's deep blue precincts.

Wittman is probably safe this upcoming cycle, but he can be beaten down the line. He ran against an extremely weak opponent. If someone like Jennifer Carrol-Foy ran, she could beat him in a good Democratic year.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even Hanover County is swinging due to Richmond exurbs. Basically the red parts of the district are the Northern Neck and the Middle Peninsula, but that's boxed by NoVA from the Northwest, Richmond in the Southwest, and Hampton Roads in the South. The Hampton Roads portion is worth mentioning too - Biden flipped James City County and the district used to include Williamsburg and parts of York. The whole area is growing due to HRO/RVA creep, retirees, the universities in the area, and federal labs.

Wittman is in no danger though, no matter how the map is drawn. His 2020 challenger didn't even win a majority of the precincts in Prince William the number of precincts South of Fredericksburg that Wittman lost could be counted on one hand.

The district is the second fastest growing in the state after VA-10, and will become bluer for two reasons: (1) it will almost certainly lose Hanover to the 7th and (2) it will take on a slightly bigger share of PWC's deep blue precincts.

Wittman is probably safe this upcoming cycle, but he can be beaten down the line. He ran against an extremely weak opponent. If someone like Jennifer Carrol-Foy ran, she could beat him in a good Democratic year.

What are you basing this on.  I agree if that happens this district will become a tossup or close.  But the redistricting commission seems allover the place right now.