Minnesota 2004

[Plankton5165]

Gore and Hillary each won Minnesota by two points. They both won the nationwide popular vote.

Kerry, on the other hand, lost the nationwide popular vote by two points.

So it seems like he'd lose Minnesota if he loses the PV. But no! He won the North Star state by a whopping three and a half points!

Why is that?

[TDAS04]

Nader performed well in 2000, so Kerry won a lot of that vote in 2004.

In 2016, Minnesota followed the Republican trend of much of the Midwest (compare Minnesota’s neighbors’ vote, 2004 to 2016.  An even much greater difference with Trump 2016 outperforming Bush 2004 in much of the region).  

However, Trump did not outperform Bush in the Twin Cities region, obviously.  Not at all, but the rural Midwest was way more Republican in 2016 than in 2004.

[sting in the rafters]

In addition to the Nader-Kerry vote as well as increased turnout all-around in 04, Minnesota trended D because Dubya won the popular vote via racking up historic margins in his home state as well as keeping CA within 10 points. Neither result in the nation's 2 most populous states is likely to be matched by the GOP in the near future.