VA Early Voting #s

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/1448974763863547905?s=20

Mayor of Alexandria says they have surpassed their total of early voters from 4 years ago.

[Duke of York]

Northern Virginia went from well below the state average to above it this week with Fairfax opening more early voting sites, as expected.  This is important because the places outside of Fairfax county that are over performing also tend to be blue areas like Henrico.

With early voting open this weekend I expect the numbers in NOVA to tick sharply up.  Thanks for playing Youngkin, should have bought a ticket to space instead.

while that is a positive sign I don't make declarations like that anymore until elections are called.

[Duke of York]

Polls don't really miss by a ton when Trump isn't on the ballot.

So Northam won by 3 points in 2017?

I meant massive errors in favor of republicans. Otherwise standard polling errors exist, but he is the only person with an actual Bradley Effect.

I consider 6 points to be a pretty massive error in favor of the republican.

Sure it's big, but the issue is there aren't a ton of quality polls. Also in VA at the end a lot of them were low quality partisan polls iirc.

For the record I think TMac wins by mid single digits.

I very much l hope your correct. Oh what basis do you make this prediction?

[Duke of York]

I have no scientific reason for thinking this, but I think this time, the young voters (mostly Democrats) are being underrepresented in polls, which in the end, tilts the race to McAuliff. 

possibly.  there will be youth drop off for sure.  but it could skew one way.  Virginia has a lot of college towns so Dem leaning young people will probably be a higher proportion of young people overall than in 2020.

Hopefully they turn out. What college towns are there besides Charlottesville and Harrisonburg?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454213595953303559

That’s a very hopeful sign.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1454213595953303559

That’s a very hopeful sign.

Yup.  While GOP pundits and the same people who got the CA Recall so horrendously wrong are talking about this completely unproven "GOP enthusiasm advantage," Democrats are actually voting. 

My current prediction.  Whatever the polling average is on Election Day, add 5 points to T-Mac (at minimum).

I am going to hold you to this.

[Duke of York]

Arlington at 39% of its 2017 total turnout.

Alexandria also at 39%.

Henrico at 32%.

Chesterfield at 47%.

Richmond at 29%.

Are those good numbers? Hopefully we reach Biden numbers in NoVa and Richmond metro.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454568201778520064

This along with the Falls Church numbers gives me hope for Tuesday that the polls will be wrong.