VA Early Voting #s

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how it's not good or good. We don't know how the electorate is turning out this year versus 2020. There could easily be more Rs who are early voting this year and Ds who are who waiting until E-Day.

Not to mention, again, for the 100th time, there were way more early voting sites open earlier in 2020 than there are now.

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Sorry forgot to update this.  I saw what I would describe as a steady amount of people at the early voting site (which is in a high concentration/noticeable area with a major road passing by).  Based on the time of day I'd say it was a little more turnout than I expected. 

Looks like 6,500 people voted in person yesterday, which was about 4x the rate of the previous days when satellite voting wasn't open.  No mail ballot numbers yet.  But I'd say it's about what I'd expect if not a slight bit higher.

[Non Swing Voter]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Oh my gosh thanks for reminding me.
Yeah I wasn’t in Virginia long, but I saw two Youngkin signs in New Hanover from the train and I saw two McAuliffe signs in Henrico.
Given it took more time to find the McAuliffe signs, it does appear Republicans have an enthusiasm edge. However, the rich white Henrico suburbs (where I was) have not shown evidence of reverting. I probably will take a few trips to NoVa on the metro right before the election.

Eh.  I see a decent amount of Youngkin signs in NOVA but honestly, it's the same houses I always see putting up GOP signs...  and we know how the GOP does in NOVA.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not sure how it's not good or good. We don't know how the electorate is turning out this year versus 2020. There could easily be more Rs who are early voting this year and Ds who are who waiting until E-Day.

Not to mention, again, for the 100th time, there were way more early voting sites open earlier in 2020 than there are now.

Yeah but now Fairfax is fully open.  Though the covid case rates are low so there is less rationale for voting early (other than convenience).

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/21
Early in person votes: 368,553
Mail ballots returned: 190,659
Total = 559,212

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1451889211993432067

[Person Man]

As of 10/21
Early in person votes: 368,553
Mail ballots returned: 190,659
Total = 559,212

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1451889211993432067

Boom.

[wbrocks67]

The thing is, we don't really know what it's telling us still, but the one thing we do know is that comparisons to 2020 are unnecessary for a lot of reasons, but one of the big ones is exactly what's happening in Fairfax. As of two days ago, they were only doing ~1K early votes bc barely any sites were open. At this point in 2020, all of the sites in Fairfax were open for weeks. Many pundits on Twitter comparing early vote to 2020 are conveniently leaving out this fact.

[Non Swing Voter]

Northern Virginia went from well below the state average to above it this week with Fairfax opening more early voting sites, as expected.  This is important because the places outside of Fairfax county that are over performing also tend to be blue areas like Henrico.

With early voting open this weekend I expect the numbers in NOVA to tick sharply up.  Thanks for playing Youngkin, should have bought a ticket to space instead.

[Duke of York]

Northern Virginia went from well below the state average to above it this week with Fairfax opening more early voting sites, as expected.  This is important because the places outside of Fairfax county that are over performing also tend to be blue areas like Henrico.

With early voting open this weekend I expect the numbers in NOVA to tick sharply up.  Thanks for playing Youngkin, should have bought a ticket to space instead.

while that is a positive sign I don't make declarations like that anymore until elections are called.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

As of 10/21
Early in person votes: 368,553
Mail ballots returned: 190,659
Total = 559,212

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

/snip

Boom.

Bang.

[It’s so Joever]

Where is Matty?

[Person Man]

Where is Matty?

Coming up with more anecdotes.

[Non Swing Voter]

Where is Matty?

currently reloading the CA SOS's website for any last minute outstanding ballots that will bring the Recall YES vote to within 10?

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

This was all very predictable.  Fairfax is now about to overtake the statewide average. 

Any hopes that Dems weren't engaged were clearly misplaced.

Arlington and Alexandria (core Dem areas) are now well above the state average.

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church City (a Dem stronghold) is at about 16% turnout.  Statewide average is 11%.  This might be the highest turnout for any municipality in the state.  I can't find anything higher.

[Non Swing Voter]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

[pantsaregood]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

[Non Swing Voter]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

[Non Swing Voter]

I just pulled the most recent registered voters stats.  These are rough estimates

5,622,000 active VA voters

Fairfax = 732,000 (13%)
Loudoun = 269,000 (4.8%)
Prince William = 288,000 (5.1%)
Arlington = 154,000 (2.7%)
Alexandria (non-Fairfax) = 96,000 (1.7%)

Independent Cities (below) = 56,000 (1%)
Fairfax City = 16,000
Falls Church City = 10,000
Manassas City = 22,000
Manassas Park City = 8,000

I am probably forgetting 1 or 2 independent cities but by my estimates, cote NOVA = 28.3% of the VA electorate now (and they usually turn out at higher rates than downstate).

Other core Dem areas (below) = 803,000 (14.2%)

Charlottesville City = 31,000
Newport News City = 112,000
Norfolk City = 125,000
Hampton City = 90,000
Richmond City = 142,000
Henrico County = 226,000
Albemarle = 77,000

So basically you have 42.5% of the population living in core democratic areas. 

There are other places where Democrats tend to win or are very competitive, which I didn't include.  But that shows how hard it is for a Republican to win in VA.  For a Republican to win they need to not only win rural overwhelmingly, which they tend to do.  They need to win lean GOP areas overwhelmingly, because true rurals are really only 20% or so of the electorate.  They also really need to win pretty much every single tossup area like Chesterfield, Stafford, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, etc.  But these are vote rich, fairly diverse areas and thus do not tend to go one way or the other by big margins. 

So really the GOP needs to not only do ALL OF THE ABOVE, they also need to cut the deficit in some of the core Dem areas or hope for very low turnout.  That's not going to happen in places like Richmond, Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville or the independent cities.   Which are all essentially just core Dem city voters.  I'd probably lump Prince William in there too. So basically they need a Hail Mary and to majorly cut the deficit in some combination of Loudoun and Fairfax.  That's unlikely to happen given the way Youngkin has run his campaign. 

This is why I am very bullish on Virginia.  I have been saying the same thing for years, that Dem areas of the state were going to slowly overtake the rural areas making it impossible for the GOP to win statewide.  You can search my old posts.  It hasn't been incorrect since I started making those predictions and unlikable, uncharismatic Youngkin isn't going to be the one to break the chain.

[Person Man]

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

This was all very predictable.  Fairfax is now about to overtake the statewide average. 

Any hopes that Dems weren't engaged were clearly misplaced.

Arlington and Alexandria (core Dem areas) are now well above the state average.

Well, either that, or "#WalkAway" is real.

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

As of 10/24
Early in person votes: 460,942
Mail ballots returned: 204,797
Total = 665,739

Looks like there is also a clear backlog of mail ballots to count since those #s have not budged a whole lot in recent days.

[compucomp]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

I see that went over your head, Over 9000 is one of the oldest Internet memes I can remember, along with All Your Base Are Belong To Us.

[Person Man]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

I see that went over your head, Over 9000 is one of the oldest Internet memes I can remember, along with All Your Base Are Belong To Us.

Take off every Zig for Social Justice!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

I see that went over your head, Over 9000 is one of the oldest Internet memes I can remember, along with All Your Base Are Belong To Us.

Take off every Zig for Social Justice!

The VA GOP have no chance to survive make your time