VA-Research Inc/UMW: McAuliffe +5, Youngkin +5

[sting in the rafters]

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

[sting in the rafters]

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.

[sting in the rafters]

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.

He isn’t so it’s pretty moot. He’s running a good campaign by your admission.

Never really said he isn't, look man some of us are gonna have the '16 general in the back of our minds forever (yes, there are countless differences in the dynamics which need not be enumerated but the principle is the same) and be scared s---less at any sign of low base turnout. WaPo showing consistently higher voter intent among Rs and conservatives underscores the need to close it out in the final 6 weeks.

To reiterate, the fact that even an electorate as right as 2013 would give Tmac the W indicates this is a Likely D race. But there's a reason Likely D races are Likely and not Safe.