VA-Research Inc/UMW: McAuliffe +5, Youngkin +5
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  VA-Research Inc/UMW: McAuliffe +5, Youngkin +5
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Author Topic: VA-Research Inc/UMW: McAuliffe +5, Youngkin +5  (Read 1642 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: September 22, 2021, 11:25:31 AM »

All over the place

Sep 7-13

ALL ADULTS
McAuliffe (D) 43%
Youngkin (R) 38%
Blanding (L) 2%

REGISTERED VOTERS
McAuliffe (D) 46%
Youngkin (R) 41%
Blanding (L) 2%

LIKELY VOTERS
Youngkin (R) 48%
McAuliffe (D) 43%
Blanding (L) 2%

https://www.umw.edu/news/2021/09/22/gubernatorial-candidates-locked-in-close-contest-umw-survey-shows/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2021, 11:26:58 AM »

Oh

Quote
Regional differences in candidate preference appear to be less distinct in vote-rich Northern Virginia this cycle. Forty-eight percent of likely voters favored McAuliffe, while Youngkin had the support of 45 percent – far from the double-digit advantage Democrats usually enjoy in the Commonwealth’s most populous region
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S019
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2021, 11:36:02 AM »

This seems like a bizarre LV screen
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 11:36:49 AM »

LTGOV:

47% Winsome Sears (R)
41% Hala Ayala (D)

AG:

46% Jason Miyares (R)
42% Mark Herring (D, inc.)

Biden approval: 44/48 (-4)
Northam approval: 42/42
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 11:39:12 AM »


The LV screen is very conservative:

ALL screen: 24% liberal, 36% moderate, 34% conservative
LV screen: 24% liberal, 30% moderate, 41% conservative
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 11:39:24 AM »

Men aren’t going to outvote women by 8%. That’s just sloppy survey design.
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Chips
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 02:29:02 PM »

Interesting poll. That seems like too big of a gap between likely and registered voters though.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2021, 02:34:01 PM »

Can you change the thread title to this to make it clearer?  ^
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2021, 04:24:45 PM »

Nope.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2021, 06:05:31 PM »

WTF is the likely voter screen? The RV number is so normal, but then LV is the biggest outlier of the campaign.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2021, 06:13:33 PM »

Tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2021, 06:23:49 PM »

D's stop Dooming T Mac will win we have Early VBM, it's gonna give Y Mac the lead and the Election he will win by 5 that's why Newsom won die to Early vote or VBM which was banned Early


TMac wins 3/5 pts
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2021, 06:41:15 PM »

What a mess of a poll. Are polling companies just hedging their bets with s*** like this after the embarrassment to their industry that was 2020? What is even the point of doing polls then?
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vitoNova
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2021, 09:21:06 PM »

As a Mary Wash alum, this aggression will not stand, man.

Terry by +20
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2021, 09:34:13 PM »

I have never seen a poll that says one guy is winning by five points but we still think the other guy’s going to win by five points.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2021, 06:39:43 AM »

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2021, 06:42:12 AM »

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
slimey56
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2021, 06:51:53 AM »

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?
No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2021, 06:55:47 AM »

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?
No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.
He isn’t so it’s pretty moot. He’s running a good campaign by your admission.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
slimey56
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2021, 07:16:11 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2021, 07:19:26 AM by The Swayze Train »

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?
No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.
He isn’t so it’s pretty moot. He’s running a good campaign by your admission.
Never really said he isn't, look man some of us are gonna have the '16 general in the back of our minds forever (yes, there are countless differences in the dynamics which need not be enumerated but the principle is the same) and be scared s---less at any sign of low base turnout. WaPo showing consistently higher voter intent among Rs and conservatives underscores the need to close it out in the final 6 weeks.

To reiterate, the fact that even an electorate as right as 2013 would give Tmac the W indicates this is a Likely D race. But there's a reason Likely D races are Likely and not Safe.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2021, 07:32:20 AM »

A Govt shutdown would be bad for D's in VS a Govt state
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vitoNova
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2021, 08:41:07 AM »

A Govt shutdown would be bad for D's in VS a Govt state


A government shutdown would be bad news for Youngkin, not Daddy Mac.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2021, 08:58:31 AM »

Ugh, no. Beyond doubtful. Remember a bunch of polls from 2017 having Gillespie ahead, one even by 8 pts? Race remains Likely D. Margin could be in Lean territory, race itsself is Safe in terms of outcome. VA has moved too much to the left and Trumpkin is a weak candidate.

Wouldn't be surprised though if the Lt. Gov. race is the closest of the 3 major matchups.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2021, 09:52:41 AM »

So Ds are ahead by 5 lol. No voter screen changes results by that much.
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