VA-Research Inc/UMW: McAuliffe +5, Youngkin +5

[wbrocks67]

All over the place

Sep 7-13

ALL ADULTS
McAuliffe (D) 43%
Youngkin (R) 38%
Blanding (L) 2%

REGISTERED VOTERS
McAuliffe (D) 46%
Youngkin (R) 41%
Blanding (L) 2%

LIKELY VOTERS
Youngkin (R) 48%
McAuliffe (D) 43%
Blanding (L) 2%

https://www.umw.edu/news/2021/09/22/gubernatorial-candidates-locked-in-close-contest-umw-survey-shows/

[wbrocks67]

Oh

Regional differences in candidate preference appear to be less distinct in vote-rich Northern Virginia this cycle. Forty-eight percent of likely voters favored McAuliffe, while Youngkin had the support of 45 percent – far from the double-digit advantage Democrats usually enjoy in the Commonwealth’s most populous region

[wbrocks67]

This seems like a bizarre LV screen

The LV screen is very conservative:

ALL screen: 24% liberal, 36% moderate, 34% conservative
LV screen: 24% liberal, 30% moderate, 41% conservative

[wbrocks67]

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?