NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +13 among RVs, +9/+14 among electorate models

[Progressive Pessimist]

It looks like property taxes and income taxes---something that helps the NJGOP win here in NJ is not sticking anymore--it is not 2009 anymore where Chris Christie could galvanize voters on that...

Murphy wins reelection, but 2025 becomes win or bust for Republicans

Property taxes will always matter to New Jersey Republicans, but the truly partisan ones were always going to vote for them no matter what, so perhaps running on taxes isn't the go-to it used to be, especially amidst the pandemic which is probably the priority for most New Jersey voters. And with how our state is comparing to Republican led ones I doubt it's an issue that is a detriment to Murphy. Also note that Ciatarelli is barely touching the pandemic with a 10 foot pole in his campaign. Murphy will win by 13 points at a minimum probably (and 15 at a maximum most likely). The margin will be determined by who turns out. Ciatarelli's only hope to not be completely humiliated is if New Jersey Democrats remain more apathetic than they usually are during off-year elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

100% agreed. Murphy might even do better in Monmouth too. And Atlantic might be among the South Jersey realignment too, of the counties moving away from the Democrats.

I don't think any counties flip in the end though, other than Morris maybe.