NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +13 among RVs, +9/+14 among electorate models
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December 04, 2021, 11:42:54 AM

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  NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +13 among RVs, +9/+14 among electorate models
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Author Topic: NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +13 among RVs, +9/+14 among electorate models  (Read 457 times)
Pollster
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« on: September 22, 2021, 10:18:13 AM »

Link

Registered voters:
Murphy 51
Ciattarelli 38

Electorate model 1:
Murphy 50
Ciattarelli 41

Electorate model 2:
Murphy 52
Ciattarelli 38

Small shift towards Ciattarelli from their last poll, within margin of error.

Murphy favorability is 48/37.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2021, 10:20:24 AM »

My guess is Murphy +10.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2021, 10:24:24 AM »

I expect this to end up right around the 2017 race (Murphy +13-15)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2021, 10:29:52 AM »

Essentially identical:

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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2021, 11:17:35 AM »

It looks like property taxes and income taxes---something that helps the NJGOP win here in NJ is not sticking anymore--it is not 2009 anymore where Chris Christie could galvanize voters on that...

Murphy wins reelection, but 2025 becomes win or bust for Republicans
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2021, 06:45:21 PM »

It looks like property taxes and income taxes---something that helps the NJGOP win here in NJ is not sticking anymore--it is not 2009 anymore where Chris Christie could galvanize voters on that...

Murphy wins reelection, but 2025 becomes win or bust for Republicans

Property taxes will always matter to New Jersey Republicans, but the truly partisan ones were always going to vote for them no matter what, so perhaps running on taxes isn't the go-to it used to be, especially amidst the pandemic which is probably the priority for most New Jersey voters. And with how our state is comparing to Republican led ones I doubt it's an issue that is a detriment to Murphy. Also note that Ciatarelli is barely touching the pandemic with a 10 foot pole in his campaign. Murphy will win by 13 points at a minimum probably (and 15 at a maximum most likely). The margin will be determined by who turns out. Ciatarelli's only hope to not be completely humiliated is if New Jersey Democrats remain more apathetic than they usually are during off-year elections.
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2021, 09:30:08 AM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2021, 09:45:09 AM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

Can you see Murphy winning Hunterdon? That would be a shock, winning Christie Whitman's county, home of the rich and the farms.......

It's a political realignment....Gloucester/Salem/Cumberland are WWC Republican-leaning places now and the wealthy Somerset/Hunterdon/Morris, once the base of the NJGOP is now Democratic-leaning now...
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2021, 05:56:13 PM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

100% agreed. Murphy might even do better in Monmouth too. And Atlantic might be among the South Jersey realignment too, of the counties moving away from the Democrats.

I don't think any counties flip in the end though, other than Morris maybe.
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2021, 10:16:41 PM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

Can you see Murphy winning Hunterdon? That would be a shock, winning Christie Whitman's county, home of the rich and the farms.......

It's a political realignment....Gloucester/Salem/Cumberland are WWC Republican-leaning places now and the wealthy Somerset/Hunterdon/Morris, once the base of the NJGOP is now Democratic-leaning now...

I doubt Hunterdon flips, usually NJ areas first flip at the top of the ticket. I would think if Dems win in 2024 then it's possible Hunterdon flips. Places like Hunterdon, Hamilton/IN, Delaware/OH, Fayette/GA, Denton + Collin/TX seem like the last step of the realignment. Of course Lackawanna/PA, Muskegon/MI, Portage/WI, Carlton/MN cut the other way as well.
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slothdem
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2021, 12:51:18 PM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

100% agreed. Murphy might even do better in Monmouth too. And Atlantic might be among the South Jersey realignment too, of the counties moving away from the Democrats.

I don't think any counties flip in the end though, other than Morris maybe.

There is no chance Murphy carries Morris County. It has changed A LOT clearly, but it's not going to flip. He will do better there than Salem County.
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2021, 01:24:01 PM »

I bet it will be the usual 56-41 New Jersey election but I expect some movement from 2017 in certain regions. Pretty sure Murphy will do considerably better in Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris but much worse in Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland.

100% agreed. Murphy might even do better in Monmouth too. And Atlantic might be among the South Jersey realignment too, of the counties moving away from the Democrats.

I don't think any counties flip in the end though, other than Morris maybe.

There is no chance Murphy carries Morris County. It has changed A LOT clearly, but it's not going to flip. He will do better there than Salem County.

There's definitely a chance, only lost it by 8 in 2017 and that election was more of a 2012 throwback in terms of coalitions.
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