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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt D		  
#7
Lean D		  
#8
Likely D		  
#9
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: Rate CA-48  (Read 1331 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: September 21, 2021, 07:51:32 PM »
I would rate it a tossup until the boundaries and Democratic opponents become known.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2021, 07:56:35 PM »
I wouldn't bother rating whatever they number 48th yet.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 08:00:08 PM »
Obviously it'll look different in 2022, but if they stayed on the current lines I'd guess it would be Lean R.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2021, 08:00:28 PM »
Does Harley Rouda carpetbag or drop out if Laguna Beach is drawn out of CA-48?
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Spectator
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 10:10:11 PM »
Cottie Petrie-Norris or Katrina Foley would be stronger than Rouda, but under current district lines, Lean R. Steel can’t afford it to get too much bluer.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2021, 10:33:40 PM »
Would Diedre Nguyen be a decent candidate for a Garden Grove/Westminster/Fountain Valley/Seal Beach/Cypress/Huntington Beach district?
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beesley
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 01:35:01 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on September 21, 2021, 08:00:08 PM
Obviously it'll look different in 2022, but if they stayed on the current lines I'd guess it would be Lean R.

Agreed,. closer to tossup than likely.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2021, 02:21:56 AM »
Lean R. CA-39, CA-45, and CA-49 will all be made more blue.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2021, 03:45:05 AM »
What's the point of this if we don't know the boundaries or who shes running against?
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2021, 12:24:22 PM »
Hard to know without the boundaries, but Tilt/Lean R for 2022 for now, probably Tilt D at best for Steele in 2024 and beyond.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2021, 12:32:28 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on September 21, 2021, 10:10:11 PM
Cottie Petrie-Norris or Katrina Foley would be stronger than Rouda, but under current district lines, Lean R. Steel can’t afford it to get too much bluer.

Well, Garcia and Kim are in much more pro-Biden districts and they won in 2020. Both Garcia and Kim's districts went for Biden by about 10 points, whereas Steel's 48th went for him by 1.5 points (to the right of the nation as a whole).
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2021, 12:37:44 PM »
Is Steel currently less vulnerable than Garcia?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2021, 03:30:39 PM »
Likely R. This seat actually probably becomes more R in redistricting, along with 49.
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Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2021, 04:10:06 PM »
Quote from: CentristRepublican on September 22, 2021, 12:32:28 PM
Quote from: Spectator on September 21, 2021, 10:10:11 PM
Cottie Petrie-Norris or Katrina Foley would be stronger than Rouda, but under current district lines, Lean R. Steel can’t afford it to get too much bluer.

Well, Garcia and Kim are in much more pro-Biden districts and they won in 2020. Both Garcia and Kim's districts went for Biden by about 10 points, whereas Steel's 48th went for him by 1.5 points (to the right of the nation as a whole).

Downballot results will catch up to the toplines sooner or later for all of them.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2021, 04:18:08 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on September 22, 2021, 04:10:06 PM
Quote from: CentristRepublican on September 22, 2021, 12:32:28 PM
Quote from: Spectator on September 21, 2021, 10:10:11 PM
Cottie Petrie-Norris or Katrina Foley would be stronger than Rouda, but under current district lines, Lean R. Steel can’t afford it to get too much bluer.

Well, Garcia and Kim are in much more pro-Biden districts and they won in 2020. Both Garcia and Kim's districts went for Biden by about 10 points, whereas Steel's 48th went for him by 1.5 points (to the right of the nation as a whole).

Downballot results will catch up to the toplines sooner or later for all of them.

Yes, but most probably for Kim and Garcia before Steel.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2021, 06:25:37 PM »
Would Diedre Nguyen beat Steel?
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2021, 09:15:48 AM »
We need to know boundaries first.

If it were the current district, it would be Lean R. If Rouda was unable to win in a D+4 environment as incumbent, it would be tough to win as a challenger in a Dem midterm.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2021, 12:37:22 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on September 22, 2021, 12:37:44 PM
Is Steel currently less vulnerable than Garcia?

Of course, unless redistricting really changes the maps a lot. Garcia is more controversial (he supported the Big Lie, while Steel got to avoid taking a position since she had COVID19), if you ask me, and Steel's district under its current boundaries voted to the right of the nation (backed Biden by just 1.5 points; R+1 CPVI), whereas Garcia's is D+3 and backed Biden by 10 points.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2021, 09:14:24 PM »
What about Josh Lowenthal, Diedre Nguyen, or some Democratic councilmember from Cypress?
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2021, 02:36:22 PM »
Draft map released. It looks like I will be moved from Lowenthal’s district to Steel’s. Will Rouda drop out or carpetbag?
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beesley
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2021, 02:39:22 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on October 26, 2021, 02:36:22 PM
Draft map released. It looks like I will be moved from Lowenthal’s district to Steel’s. Will Rouda drop out or carpetbag?

What you predicted!
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2021, 02:43:16 PM »
Quote from: beesley on October 26, 2021, 02:39:22 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on October 26, 2021, 02:36:22 PM
Draft map released. It looks like I will be moved from Lowenthal’s district to Steel’s. Will Rouda drop out or carpetbag?

What you predicted!
I predicted I would be moved from CA-47 to CA-48. If Rouda is the nominee, he might lose by being branded a carpetbagger.
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