Which factors contributed the most to trends in the CA recall?

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

To clear up what people actually think, because God knows the other threads have enough slapfighting.

Feel free to expound on specific areas/other factors below.


Reposted, forgot to enable multiple options in the last poll.

[THG]

Some of my own notes:

• I’m fairly bullish when it comes to the shift of Hispanics towards the GOP, but even I wouldn’t call said trends a “re-alignment” so far, particularly in California.

• I fully believe a Hispanic re-alignment is occurring in Texas and much of Florida, but places like California and Arizona are a little less obvious.

• Even in California it certainly appears that they are trending to the right, but that isn’t really a full on re-alignment yet.

• Ditto for the suburban/college educated trends, which is a shift, but not a full on re-alignment YET- which Trump accelerated but certainly didn’t start at all, believe or not (Your suburbs have been shifting to the left since 2004, minus the dead cat’s bounce of 2012).

• What genuinely shocked me is the level of white support for Newsom, specifically college educated white support.

• He won that demographic (college whites) 70-30, which is mainly what contributed to the margins we saw.

• I expected whites statewide overall to favor recalling Newsom by single digit margins but no, they voted to keep him overall, and they didn’t even vote drastically to the right of non whites either.

[THG]

Some of my own notes:

• I’m fairly bullish when it comes to the shift of Hispanics towards the GOP, but even I wouldn’t call said trends a “re-alignment” so far, particularly in California.

• I fully believe a Hispanic re-alignment is occurring in Texas and much of Florida, but places like California and Arizona are a little less obvious.

• Even in California it certainly appears that they are trending to the right, but that isn’t really a full on re-alignment yet.

• Ditto for the suburban/college educated trends, which is a shift, but not a full on re-alignment YET- which Trump accelerated but certainly didn’t start at all, believe or not (Your suburbs have been shifting to the left since 2004, minus the dead cat’s bounce of 2012).

• What genuinely shocked me is the level of white support for Newsom, specifically college educated white support.

• He won that demographic (college whites) 70-30, which is mainly what contributed to the margins we saw.

• I expected whites statewide overall to favor recalling Newsom by single digit margins but no, they voted to keep him overall, and they didn’t even vote drastically to the right of non whites either.

So overall, I believe that educational polarization, the Latino re-alignment/right shift, and conservatives leaving the state contributed to the results, but again, it would be more appropriate to judge this once the election results are final.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Some of my own notes:

• I’m fairly bullish when it comes to the shift of Hispanics towards the GOP, but even I wouldn’t call said trends a “re-alignment” so far, particularly in California.

• I fully believe a Hispanic re-alignment is occurring in Texas and much of Florida, but places like California and Arizona are a little less obvious.

• Even in California it certainly appears that they are trending to the right, but that isn’t really a full on re-alignment yet.

• Ditto for the suburban/college educated trends, which is a shift, but not a full on re-alignment YET- which Trump accelerated but certainly didn’t start at all, believe or not (Your suburbs have been shifting to the left since 2004, minus the dead cat’s bounce of 2012).

• What genuinely shocked me is the level of white support for Newsom, specifically college educated white support.

• He won that demographic (college whites) 70-30, which is mainly what contributed to the margins we saw.

• I expected whites statewide overall to favor recalling Newsom by single digit margins but no, they voted to keep him overall, and they didn’t even vote drastically to the right of non whites either.

So overall, I believe that educational polarization, the Latino re-alignment/right shift, and conservatives leaving the state contributed to the results, but again, it would be more appropriate to judge this once the election results are final.

Lol. THG thinks this result was caused by Republicans leaving the state. If anything, the flips of three congressional seats should prove otherwise.

[THG]

but again, it would be more appropriate to judge this once the election results are final.

To anyone mocking my statements- Keep this in mind!

[Del Tachi]

Isn't what's notable about the CA results just how uniform the swings are from Newsom 2018/Biden 2020?  In a winning recall campaign (or even just a normal off-year environment), you would expect some places to trend very strongly relative to their normal midterm/presidential year performance but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

I'll read this as an indication of growing polarization within the electorate, which is obviously beneficial to the Democrats in a Biden +30 state.  I won't expect California to be a bright spot for the GOP going into 2022.

[Biden his time]

Orange County voting to the left of Riverside and San Bernardino can easily be explained by the large Asian proportion in the county.

[THG]

Orange County voting to the left of Riverside and San Bernardino can easily be explained by the large Asian proportion in the county.

This, and OC Hispanics are more to the left of Riverside and San Bernardino Hispanics. Coastal Hispanics in California are certainly more left leaning than Inland ones- a trend similar to the white vote in California.

[THG]

Isn't what's notable about the CA results just how uniform the swings are from Newsom 2018/Biden 2020?  In a winning recall campaign (or even just a normal off-year environment), you would expect some places to trend very strongly relative to their normal midterm/presidential year performance but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

I'll read this as an indication of growing polarization within the electorate, which is obviously beneficial to the Democrats in a Biden +30 state.  I won't expect California to be a bright spot for the GOP going into 2022.

I agree. The CAGOP should forget about le Orange County and focus on the Inland part of the state if they want to make any notable gains in that state in the coming future.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Half of the comments in this thread are by THG.

Someone needs to slow down.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't agree with the premise of some of the choices.  There wasn't a latino realignment for instance.

The only two I voted for were the educational polarization and the asian polarization (due to GOP racism post covid).  Probably a ton of overlap in these choices as well because asians are fairly educated, especially in CA. 

[Schiff for Senate]

Some of my own notes:

• I’m fairly bullish when it comes to the shift of Hispanics towards the GOP, but even I wouldn’t call said trends a “re-alignment” so far, particularly in California.

• I fully believe a Hispanic re-alignment is occurring in Texas and much of Florida, but places like California and Arizona are a little less obvious.

• Even in California it certainly appears that they are trending to the right, but that isn’t really a full on re-alignment yet.

• Ditto for the suburban/college educated trends, which is a shift, but not a full on re-alignment YET- which Trump accelerated but certainly didn’t start at all, believe or not (Your suburbs have been shifting to the left since 2004, minus the dead cat’s bounce of 2012).

• What genuinely shocked me is the level of white support for Newsom, specifically college educated white support.

• He won that demographic (college whites) 70-30, which is mainly what contributed to the margins we saw.

• I expected whites statewide overall to favor recalling Newsom by single digit margins but no, they voted to keep him overall, and they didn’t even vote drastically to the right of non whites either.

So overall, I believe that educational polarization, the Latino re-alignment/right shift, and conservatives leaving the state contributed to the results, but again, it would be more appropriate to judge this once the election results are final.

Lol. THG thinks this result was caused by Republicans leaving the state. If anything, the flips of three congressional seats should prove otherwise.

Yeah, I mean Newsom didn't do that well for a CA Democrat. This is THG trying to pretend a 20+ point Democratic margin in CA is an anomaly in any way. It happens all the time.

[PSOL]

Progressives and Leftists either voted No or stayed home, seeing that it was a Republican-backed recall. A good 10-20% swing against Newsom was thus averted.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The CAGOP being incompetent and horrendous.