IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Biden is at 31% approval in Iowa according to this poll.

At a certain point, regardless rural-urban split etc, you have to start to contemplate an all Republican delegation (map dependent of course).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah

You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.

It's not a Red wave when Rs lose by a landslide in Cali Recall and lose by 5 in VA and losing by 9 in AZ, CO and PA and tied in WI and down by 2 in MI, Rs won MI, CO and VA Gov in 2010/2014, you think it is but I dont.
The only states you guys are up in are NV and NH and we are targeting OH and NC and Ryan leads by 1 in OH and tied in another

No polls in NC

CA really doesn't move in wave years. It just is what it is. It didn't really move in 2006 or 2010.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

VA did in 2009 and we lost in 2010 and we are ahead its a 304 map anyways unless we lose WI

CA is not VA.

We are gonna win NH and NV, those states lagged behind Hassan beat Ayotte in 2016 on Election night and so did SISOLAK and Rosen whom were all trailing up until the Election

And this matters why?

Don't underestimate Tim Ryan and Jeff Jackson that's why I still am predicting a Ryan and Jeff Jackson win, if Beshear won on R KY and Ryan looks like Beshear just like Kelly can win on KS we can have in 14 mnths a 54/46 S and 222/216 H and DC and PR Statehood, Barnes, Fetterman, Ryan all said they aren't for Crt packing but get rid of Fillibuster for DC Statehood, amid Covid cases going down if Biden passes his Infrastructure and Reconciliation with a 2.5T pricetag and lift the Debt Ceiling

Governors and Senate races are different.

If you couldn't win NC Senate in 2020, your chances of doing so in 2022 are much slimmer with a worse environment, cyclical politics working against you and no Thom Tillis (who has no charisma and wreaks of Charlotte banker come to take your house) to run against.

There are 12(25% Blk in OH and NC unlike IA and DeSantis and Rubio got a Surfside bump

We also have wave insurance candidates in Ben Downing, Bill Walker in AK and Beshear can win reelection in 2023 and Hobbs in AZ.
IA has 3% Afro Americans

Ah yes, the old "this time will defy gravity and we will gain seats" even as Biden's Presidency is a train wreck and things haven't gotten better so far bc "they be better next year for sure and Biden gonna get big bounce and Dems gain Senate seats".

"Oh so many times, have I heard this line..."

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When do you all reckon the Populist Fikenarr surge occurs?

"What’s the break-even price for soybeans in Iowa, Senator? You grew up on a farm. You should know this."



Ernst needed an unprecedented retail campaigning blitzkrieg to survive the ensuing fallout from Soybeangate and win by the margin she eventually won by, but old out-of-touch D.C. Geezer Grass isn’t even a member of the Senate Motorcycle Caucus...

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Good times!