IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote
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  IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote
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Author Topic: IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote  (Read 1926 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: September 21, 2021, 08:45:56 AM »


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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2021, 08:48:43 AM »

Yeah, this isn't competitive in the least. Not that I expected anything else.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 08:49:53 AM »

Well thats unfortunate. I wonder if they tested Generic R instead of Grassley just in case.

I know Grassley has a lot of personal good will but jesus, the fact that (much like with Feinstein), that people are willing to vote for a nearly 90 year old over a Democrat by that margin or even "unsure" is just insane.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2021, 08:51:40 AM »

This poll is good for u know what.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 08:53:26 AM »

In the unlikely event the congressional draft map gets approved as-is, Finkenauer should just drop out of the senate race and declare for IA-01.
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Pollster
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2021, 09:09:14 AM »

55% would be the lowest percentage of the vote Grassley has received since his initial election - probably the strongest sign yet that partisanship rules all in regular elections nowadays.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2021, 09:09:54 AM »

"Yeah, but the CA results point to a 2018 environment (see: CA-GOV 2018), and Reynolds won by 3 points in 2018, so Finkenauer wins after four years of growth in the Des Moines metro and the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Corridor."

In all seriousness, this is beyond Safe R with or without Grassley. Even if Grassley loses most of his crossover appeal to Democrats and D-leaning independents (which is actually somewhat likely), it clearly won’t matter in terms of the binary outcome. Not that this should come as a surprise to anyone (I know it will, but I said "should").
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2021, 09:12:46 AM »

"Yeah, but the CA results point to a 2018 environment (see: CA-GOV 2018), and Reynolds won by 3 points in 2018, so Finkenauer wins after four years of growth in the Des Moines metro and the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Corridor."

In all seriousness, this is beyond Safe R with or without Grassley. Even if Grassley loses most of his crossover appeal to Democrats and D-leaning independents (which is actually somewhat likely), it clearly won’t matter in terms of the binary outcome. Not that this should come as a surprise to anyone (I know it will, but I said "should").

The # of Republicans in IA is getting to be too much for Ds, you're right.

Just look at the new IA-GOV numbers. Republicans approve, Dems disapprove, and Indies are split down the middle. But Reynolds is still +10 above water because there's just more Reps.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2021, 09:19:44 AM »

MT Treasurer Fink never had a chance, Harris is a poor Veep to help Biden win IA


The thing about it, Ras Smith is still trying to get me to DONATE to his F campaign
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2021, 09:24:16 AM »

Welp, that was fun while it lasted. Safe R. Nothing to see here.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2021, 09:32:26 AM »

Titanium Chuck.. delusions from hacks didn't change that fact.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2021, 09:54:25 AM »

Titanium Chuck.. delusions from hacks didn't change that fact.



Grassley isn't a Partisan HACK, he is fairly like Daines and Kim Reynolds is helping Rs she is very popular on the syate

Enough to flip a Senate seat

GA, OH and NC SEN MAY GO D

Mike DeWine is popular but Mandel and Vance don't appeal to Blks which have 12% in the state, that's why Senate race is tied
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2021, 10:21:55 AM »

Titanium Chuck.. delusions from hacks didn't change that fact.



Grassley isn't a Partisan HACK, he is fairly like Daines and Kim Reynolds is helping Rs she is very popular on the syate

Enough to flip a Senate seat

GA, OH and NC SEN MAY GO D

Mike DeWine is popular but Mandel and Vance don't appeal to Blks which have 12% in the state, that's why Senate race is tied
There is NO WAY Democrats win in OH and NC, not with Biden having a 31 % Job Approval in Iowa because if he polls that badly in IA he is also underwater in the other two ensuring Republican Victories.

Democrats may hang onto GA because of Herschel Walker not being a good Candidate.

Bidens JA in IA is a HUGE, MASSIVE "Red Flag" for Democrats running in the Midwest like Governors Whitmer, Evers and maybe even MN Governor Tim Walz and it doesn't help Tim Ryan in Ohio either.

This bad JA doesn't happen in Isolation. IA, MN, WI, MI, OH are all in one way connected to each other.

Remember the IA/DMR Poll that showed Trump 7 Points on Biden two Days before the 2020 Election. When that Poll came out it was instantly clear that WI, MI would be a lot closer than expected and Biden wouldn't have these 6-7 Point leads most of the Polls were predicting. Guess what: The DMR correctly forshadowed closer Races. Biden won WI by a hair and MI by a Point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2021, 10:50:58 AM »

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah
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Stuart98
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2021, 11:14:38 AM »

Safe R lmao
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2021, 11:24:02 AM »

Wow, this race is so interesting without memes.
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2021, 11:31:40 AM »

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah
You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2021, 11:39:12 AM »


Lol it's 14 mnths til the Election
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2021, 11:41:08 AM »

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah
You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.

It's not a Red wave when Rs lose by a landslide in Cali Recall and lose by 5 in VA and losing by 9 in AZ, CO and PA and tied in WI and down by 2 in MI, Rs won MI, CO and VA Gov in 2010/2014, you think it is but I dont.
The only states you guys are up in are NV and NH and we are targeting OH and NC and Ryan leads by 1 in OH and tied in another

No polls in NC
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2021, 11:44:28 AM »

Biden is at 31% approval in Iowa according to this poll.

At a certain point, regardless rural-urban split etc, you have to start to contemplate an all Republican delegation (map dependent of course).

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2021, 11:45:29 AM »

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah
You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.

It's not a Red wave when Rs lose by a landslide in Cali Recall and lose by 5 in VA and losing by 9 in AZ, CO and PA and tied in WI and down by 2 in MI, Rs won MI, CO and VA Gov in 2010/2014, you think it is but I dont.
The only states you guys are up in are NV and NH and we are targeting OH and NC and Ryan leads by 1 in OH and tied in another

No polls in NC

CA really doesn't move in wave years. It just is what it is. It didn't really move in 2006 or 2010.
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2021, 02:08:09 PM »

Tilt D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2021, 02:44:58 PM »


The only state more eratically swingy and elastic than NH is IA, so yes — a very believable rating.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2021, 03:00:31 PM »

Biden is at 31% approval in Iowa according to this poll.

At a certain point, regardless rural-urban split etc, you have to start to contemplate an all Republican delegation (map dependent of course).



The IA-01 the commission drew would likely hold because it is a college town pack.  I am not convinced any reasonable version of IA-03 would save Axne, even if it became Biden+5.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2021, 05:17:48 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2021, 05:27:56 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

I admit that f Biden doesn't get his 4.7T dollar package and Manchin and Sinema won't increase Debt Ceiling  or vote over 2T thru Reconciliation D's will lose next yr, but if Biden does get his massive spending bill D's can win 54 seats and 222 J seats and win DC statehood


All Manchin and Sinema has to do is make Rs do a standing Filibuster and Rs would relent and they said they are open to do it on VR and they can do it on Debt ceiling too

Lol the Election is 14 Mnths away, we won't win IA but other states with huge BLK votes in MI, WI and PA and OH and NC are different and Grassley isnt winning by 25 pts over Fink 5/7 pts ueah
You are joke Olowakandi! The Democrats are doomed no matter what happens with the Infrastructure Bill. IF they vote for it they will be labelled as "SOCIALISTS", IF they vote against it the Progressive Fraction of the Democratic Party might not come out and vote next year.

The Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer Clown Show has already done massive OVERREACH in this Country over the last 8 months with the Vaccine Mandates. Biden is in a worse spot compared to Obama at the same time of their respective Presidencies.

Obama ended his 1st Year in Office (2009) with a +22.5 JA Rating according to Historical Data from the Real Clear Politics Website and Biden won't even come close to that as he is already underwater.

It all fell apart for Obama once the Democratic-led Congress passed the Affordable Care Act through Reconciliation.

Same thing will happen with the Budget/Infrastructure Bill.

Meanwhile when you look at Polls Inflation is the biggest Issue for Voters right now.

It's not a Red wave when Rs lose by a landslide in Cali Recall and lose by 5 in VA and losing by 9 in AZ, CO and PA and tied in WI and down by 2 in MI, Rs won MI, CO and VA Gov in 2010/2014, you think it is but I dont.
The only states you guys are up in are NV and NH and we are targeting OH and NC and Ryan leads by 1 in OH and tied in another

No polls in NC

CA really doesn't move in wave years. It just is what it is. It didn't really move in 2006 or 2010.

VA did in 2009 and we lost in 2010 and we are ahead its a 304 map anyways unless we lose WI

We are gonna win NH and NV, those states lagged behind Hassan beat Ayotte in 2016 on Election night and so did SISOLAK and Rosen whom were all trailing up until the Election

Don't underestimate Tim Ryan and Jeff Jackson that's why I still am predicting a Ryan and Jeff Jackson win, if Beshear won on R KY and Ryan looks like Beshear just like Kelly can win on KS we can have in 14 mnths a 54/46 S and 222/216 H and DC and PR Statehood, Barnes, Fetterman, Ryan all said they aren't for Crt packing but get rid of Fillibuster for DC Statehood, amid Covid cases going down if Biden passes his Infrastructure and Reconciliation with a 2.5T pricetag and lift the Debt Ceiling


There are 12(25% Blk in OH and NC unlike IA and DeSantis and Rubio got a Surfside bump

We also have wave insurance candidates in Ben Downing, Bill Walker in AK and Beshear can win reelection in 2023 and Hobbs in AZ.
IA has 3% Afro Americans
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