IA - Selzer/DMR: Grassley +18% over Finkenauer with outright majority of vote

[MT Treasurer]

"Yeah, but the CA results point to a 2018 environment (see: CA-GOV 2018), and Reynolds won by 3 points in 2018, so Finkenauer wins after four years of growth in the Des Moines metro and the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Corridor."

In all seriousness, this is beyond Safe R with or without Grassley. Even if Grassley loses most of his crossover appeal to Democrats and D-leaning independents (which is actually somewhat likely), it clearly won’t matter in terms of the binary outcome. Not that this should come as a surprise to anyone (I know it will, but I said "should").

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt D

The only state more eratically swingy and elastic than NH is IA, so yes — a very believable rating.

[MT Treasurer]

When do you all reckon the Populist Fikenarr surge occurs?

"What’s the break-even price for soybeans in Iowa, Senator? You grew up on a farm. You should know this."



Ernst needed an unprecedented retail campaigning blitzkrieg to survive the ensuing fallout from Soybeangate and win by the margin she eventually won by, but old out-of-touch D.C. Geezer Grass isn’t even a member of the Senate Motorcycle Caucus...